Iraq's
revival as a prominent oil exporter is bound to reshuffle a careful power
balance in the energy-rich Arab world, particularly between bitter rivals Saudi
Arabia and Iran. Saddam Hussein's 2003 toppling created a vacuum that both
sides rushed to fill, for example deploying proxy forces at the height of
Iraq's sectarian civil war. OPEC is another battlefield for the Saudi-Iran
rivalry, and the Saudi kingdom is in no hurry to lose its uncontested status as
No. 1. Now, as Iraq stabilizes politically and slowly rebuilds its
oil-production capacity, both sides will have to accommodate a more assertive
Baghdad. Even if oil production doesn't reach the Iraqis' goal, it will likely
be higher than the approximately 1.7 million barrels per day that Iraq was producing
just prior to the U.S. invasion.