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Most climate forecast agencies failed to make successful predictions of the strong 2020/2021 La Niña event before May 2020. The western equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) before the 2020 spring failed to predict this La Niña event because of the near neutral state of the equatorial Pacific Ocean in the year before. A strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event took place in the fall of 2019, which is used as a precursor for the La Niña prediction in this study. We used observational data to construct the precursory relationship between negative sea level anomalies (SLA) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) in boreal fall and negative Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies index one year later. The application of the above relation to the prediction of the 2020/2021 La Niña was a great success. The dynamics behind are the Indo-Pacific "oceanic channel" connection via the Indian Ocean Kelvin wave propagation through the Indonesian seas, with the atmospheric bridge playing a secondary role. The high predictability of La Niña across the spring barrier if a positive IOD should occur in the previous year suggests that the negative SETIO SLA in fall is a much better and longer predictor for this type of La Niña prediction than the WWV. In comparison, positive SETIO SLA lead either El Niño or La Niña by one year, suggesting uncertainty of El Niño predictions.

El Niño threatens southern Africa with yet another drought.

El Niño threatens southern Africa with yet another drought.

El Niño, one of three strongest recorded, brings high drought risk for Australia.

El Niño, one of three strongest recorded, brings high drought risk for Australia.

El Niño in the Pacific has an impact on dolphins over in Western Australia.

Tropical Indo-Pacific climate shifts to a more El Niño-like state.

Oceans across the globe are warming rapidly and marine ecosystems are changing as a result. However, there is a lack of information regarding how blue whales are responding to these changing environments, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. This is because long term data are needed to determine whether blue whales respond to variability in environmental conditions. Using over 16 years of passive acoustic data recorded at Cape Leeuwin, we investigated whether oceanic environmental drivers are correlated with the migration patterns of eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) pygmy blue whales off Western Australia. To determine which environmental variables may influence migration patterns, we modelled the number of acoustic call detections of EIO pygmy blue whale calls with broad and fine scale environmental variables. We found a positive correlation between total annual whale call detections and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with more whale calls detected during La Niña years. We also found that monthly whale call detections correlated with sea surface height around the hydrophone and chlorophyll-a concentration at a prominent blue whale feeding aggregation area (Bonney Upwelling) where whales feed during the summer before migrating up the west Australian coast. At the interannual scale, ENSO had a stronger relationship with call detections than IOD. During La Niña years, up to ten times more EIO pygmy blue whale calls were detected than in neutral or El Niño years. This is likely linked to changes in productivity in the feeding areas of the Great Australian Bight and Indian Ocean. We propose that in lower productivity years whales either skipped migration or altered their habitat use and moved further offshore from the hydrophones and therefore were not detected. The frequency and intensity of ENSO events are predicted to increase with climate change, which is likely to impact the productivity of the areas used by blue whale

East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is one of the most dominant climate systems in East Asia. The anomalous EASM can cause the extreme high temperature, flood or drought. And El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominating mode in the tropical Pacific, is the most important factor affecting EASM. Understanding the processes for interannual to interdecadal variability of EASM-ENSO relationship is crucial.

This study investigated the interannual variability of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) and bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) catches in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (SWTIO) over 25 years and its relationship to climate variability. The results indicate that the catch amount in the northern SWTIO exhibits a significant relationship with the temperature, salinity, and current variability in the upper ocean (< 400 m), associated with a significant subsurface upwelling variability, which is prominent only in the northern region. An increase of the tuna catches in the northern region is associated with the deepening of the thermocline depth and 20°C isotherm depth of the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge, indicating suppression of the subsurface upwelling. Further analysis reveals that the catch amounts in the SWTIO tend to increase during the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole. However, the catch variability in the northern SWTIO is more closely related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation than the Indian Ocean Dipole. Favorable conditions for catches seem to develop in the northern region during El Niño years and continue throughout the following years. This relationship suggests the potential predictability of catch amounts in the northern SWTIO, an energetic region with strong subsurface upwelling variability.

Global warming is approaching a tipping point that during this century could reawaken an ancient climate pattern similar to El Niño in the Indian Ocean, new research led by scientists from The University of Texas at Austin has found.

The interannual-decadal variability in the upper-ocean salinity of the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) was found to be highly correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Based on multisource data, this study revealed that this ENSO-like salinity variability mainly resides in the domain between 13°S-30°S and 100°E-120°E, and at depths above 150 m. This variability is principally driven by meridional geostrophic velocity (MGV), which changes with the zonal pattern of the sea surface height (SSH). Previous studies have reported that the variability in the SSH in the south Indian Ocean is principally driven by local-wind forcing and eastern-boundary forcing. Here the eastern-boundary forcing denotes the influence of SSH anomaly radiated from the western coast of Australia. A recent study emphasized the contribution of local-wind forcing in salinity variability in the SEIO, for its significant role in generation of the zonal dipole pattern of SSH anomaly in the south Indian Ocean, which was considered to be responsible for the anomalous MGV in the SEIO. While our results revealed a latitudinal difference between the domain where the SSH dipole pattern exists (north of 20°S) and the region in which the ENSO-like salinity variability is strongest (20°S-30°S), suggesting that this salinity variability cannot be attributed entirely to the SSH dipole pattern. Our further investigation shows that, the MGV in the SEIO changes with local zonal SSH gradient that principally driven by eastern-boundary forcing. In combination with the strong meridional salinity gradient, the boundary-driven MGV anomalies cause significant meridional salinity advection and eventually give rise to the observed ENSO-like salinity variability. This study revealed the leading role of eastern-boundary forcing in interannual variability of the upper-ocean salinity in the SEIO.

Unprecedented warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were observed off the west coast of Australia in February-March 2011. Peak SST during a 2-week period were 5°C warmer than normal, causing widespread coral bleaching and fish kills. Understanding the climatic drivers of this extreme event, which we dub "Ningaloo Niño", is crucial for predicting similar events under the influence of global warming. Here we use observational data and numerical models to demonstrate that the extreme warming was mostly driven by an unseasonable surge of the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current in austral summer, which transported anomalously warm water southward along the coast. The unusual intensification of the Leeuwin Current was forced remotely by oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections associated with the extraordinary 2010-2011 La Niña. The amplitude of the warming was boosted by both multi-decadal trends in the Pacific toward more La Niña-like conditions and intraseasonal variations in the Indian Ocean.

Climat : record en vue pour 2015.

Climat : record en vue pour 2015.

Preliminary findings of a comprehensive scientific survey examining the impact of the climate change-related 2016 mass bleaching in the Maldives indicate that all reefs surveyed were affected by the event. Approximately 60% of all coral colonies assessed - and up to 90% in some sites - were bleached.

Preliminary findings of a comprehensive scientific survey examining the impact of the climate change-related 2016 mass bleaching in the Maldives indicate that all reefs surveyed were affected by the event. Approximately 60% of all coral colonies assessed - and up to 90% in some sites - were bleached.

Here's a simple backyard science experiment for you to try, which has global implications.

Maldives: In a Troubled Paradise, Time Runs Out on Environmental Deadline.

Climate Change Impacts Countered By Stricter Fisheries Management.

Climate Change Impacts Countered By Stricter Fisheries Management.