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Marine ecosystems are experiencing rapid shifts under climate change scenarios and baleen whales are vulnerable to environmental change, although not all impacts are yet clear. We identify how the migration behaviour of the Chagos whale, likely a pygmy blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus brevicauda), has changed in association with shifts in environmental factors. We used up to 18 years of continuous underwater acoustic recordings to analyse the relationships between whale acoustic presence and sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a concentration, El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We compared these relationships between two independent sites Diego Garcia southeast (DGS) and Diego Garcia northwest (DGN) where Chagos whales are detected and are suspected to move interannually across the Chagos-Laccadive ridge. We showed that the number of whale songs detected increased on average by 7.7% and 12.6% annually at DGS and DGN respectively. At the DGS site, Chagos whales shifted their arrival time earlier by 4.2 ± 2.0 days/year ± SE and were detected for a longer period by 7.3 ± 1.2 days/year ± SE across 18 years. A larger number of songs were detected during periods of higher chlorophyll-a concentration, and with positive IOD phases. At the DGN site, we did not see an earlier shift in arrival and songs were not detected for a longer period across the 13 years. Whale presence at DGN had a weaker but opposite relationship with chlorophyll-a and IOD. The oceanic conditions in the Indian Ocean are predicted to change under future climate scenarios and this will likely influence Chagos whale migratory behaviour. Understanding how environmental factors influence whale movement patterns can help predict how whales may respond to future environmental change. We demonstrate the value of long-term acoustic monitoring of marine fauna to determine how they may be affected by changing environmental conditions.

It was the whales' singing that gave them away.

Oceans across the globe are warming rapidly and marine ecosystems are changing as a result. However, there is a lack of information regarding how blue whales are responding to these changing environments, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. This is because long term data are needed to determine whether blue whales respond to variability in environmental conditions. Using over 16 years of passive acoustic data recorded at Cape Leeuwin, we investigated whether oceanic environmental drivers are correlated with the migration patterns of eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) pygmy blue whales off Western Australia. To determine which environmental variables may influence migration patterns, we modelled the number of acoustic call detections of EIO pygmy blue whale calls with broad and fine scale environmental variables. We found a positive correlation between total annual whale call detections and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with more whale calls detected during La Niña years. We also found that monthly whale call detections correlated with sea surface height around the hydrophone and chlorophyll-a concentration at a prominent blue whale feeding aggregation area (Bonney Upwelling) where whales feed during the summer before migrating up the west Australian coast. At the interannual scale, ENSO had a stronger relationship with call detections than IOD. During La Niña years, up to ten times more EIO pygmy blue whale calls were detected than in neutral or El Niño years. This is likely linked to changes in productivity in the feeding areas of the Great Australian Bight and Indian Ocean. We propose that in lower productivity years whales either skipped migration or altered their habitat use and moved further offshore from the hydrophones and therefore were not detected. The frequency and intensity of ENSO events are predicted to increase with climate change, which is likely to impact the productivity of the areas used by blue whale