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A research team led by Prof. CHANG Fengming from the Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS), for the first time, reported the tectonic and climatic controls on sediment transport to the Southeast Indian Ocean during the Eocene.

The Lombok Strait (LS), Ombai Strait (OS), and Timor Passage (TP) are three major outlets of the Indonesian Throughflow to the Indian Ocean. Here, sources and pathways of the LS, OS, and TP outflows are explored by a Lagrangian particle tracking analysis based on a ~3 km regional ocean model simulation. The Makassar Strait transport contributes to ~80%, ~75%, and ~45% of the LS, OS, and TP outflows, respectively. However, ~41% and ~19% of the TP and OS outflows stem from the Lifamatola Passage, which largely feeds the upper and intermediate layers of the outflows. The role of Karimata Strait is quite limited and restricted to the upper layer. It takes 1-2 years and 2-6 years for the Makassar Strait water to reach the OS and TP, respectively, whereas the Lifamatola Passage water passes through the OS (2-6 years) and TP (3-9 years) on a prolonged transit time. In the Banda Sea, the western boundary current is the main pathway toward the OS, while the waters to the TP tend to take a basin interior route.

Most climate forecast agencies failed to make successful predictions of the strong 2020/2021 La Niña event before May 2020. The western equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) before the 2020 spring failed to predict this La Niña event because of the near neutral state of the equatorial Pacific Ocean in the year before. A strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event took place in the fall of 2019, which is used as a precursor for the La Niña prediction in this study. We used observational data to construct the precursory relationship between negative sea level anomalies (SLA) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) in boreal fall and negative Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies index one year later. The application of the above relation to the prediction of the 2020/2021 La Niña was a great success. The dynamics behind are the Indo-Pacific "oceanic channel" connection via the Indian Ocean Kelvin wave propagation through the Indonesian seas, with the atmospheric bridge playing a secondary role. The high predictability of La Niña across the spring barrier if a positive IOD should occur in the previous year suggests that the negative SETIO SLA in fall is a much better and longer predictor for this type of La Niña prediction than the WWV. In comparison, positive SETIO SLA lead either El Niño or La Niña by one year, suggesting uncertainty of El Niño predictions.

The Indo-Pacific warm pool is the warmest ocean in the world and is known as "the global heat engine," which plays an important role in the climate system.