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Hans De Keulenaer

UBS-Article.pdf - 0 views

  • We found that the EV powertrain is $4.6k cheaper to produce than we thought and there is more cost reduction potential left. Consumer cost of ownership (TCO) parity vis-à-vis combustion engine (ICE) cars can be reached from 2018 (first in EU), creating an inflection point for demand.
  • Our detailed analysis of moving and wearing parts has shown that the highly lucrative spare parts business should shrink by ~60% in the end-game of a 100%-EV world, which is decades away.
  • EVs are an opportunity for tech companies because the electronics content in the Bolt is $4k higher than in an ICE car, excluding the battery.
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  • Commodities-wise, we detected the highest deviation in weight shares between the Bolt and ICE car in copper, aluminium, battery active materials and rare earths.
  • Highest impact on markets for aluminium, copper, battery active materials, rare earths (all positive) and platinum group metals (negative).
  • Therefore, the cost difference (not the retail price difference) between the Bolt and the VW Golf, which we consider an equivalent ICE car, appears set to shrink to $2.3k.
Phil Slade

Sustability 30th Anniversary - 1 views

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    Great series of graphics looking 30 years back and forward. Hope we're about halfway. Thanks for sharing Phil.
Hans De Keulenaer

PB-2017_05_SimoneTagliapietra-1.pdf - 0 views

shared by Hans De Keulenaer on 23 Nov 17 - No Cached
  • The EU should de-politicise coal by providing a solution to the related socioeconomic issues, such as the difficulties of transition in coal mining regions. T o do so, the EU should broaden the scope and change the functioning of the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund, to make it into a flagship EU initiative that will support European coal miners who will inevitably be affected by EU decarbonisation. By devoting 0.1 percent of its post-2020 budget to this item, the EU could facilitate the elimination of a major stumbling block on its decarbonisation pathway.
  • Box 1: A back-of-the-envelope calculation of the EGCF budget requirements to support the coal phase-out Europeans employed in coal mining = 216,000 (0.07 percent of total) Assuming a 50 percent phase-out between 2020-27 = 108,000 jobs to be phased out (Fair to assume that part of the remaining 50 percent will naturally retire over the period) 108,000 / 7 years = 15,430 jobs to be phased out yearly between 2020-2027 Assuming financial support of €10,000 per worker = €154 million per year Total financial requirement for the coal-item of the EGCF between 2020-27 = €1 billion
Hans De Keulenaer

Lewis Pugh - First swim across the North Pole - YouTube - 0 views

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    Inspiring 1 km swim across the geographical North Pole, in order to alert us that there are actually 1 km swimming stretches there already in 2007
Hans De Keulenaer

The transition to a Zero Emission Vehicles fleet for cars in the EU by 2050 - 2 views

shared by Hans De Keulenaer on 18 Nov 17 - No Cached
  • The transport sector is expected to deliver a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU by 2050. Achieving these commitments is expected to require a complete decarbonisation of the passenger car fleet.
Hans De Keulenaer

Semi | Tesla - 1 views

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    Range: 480 or 800 km
    Efficiency: <1,25 kWh/km (i.e. 400 kWh or 650 kWh battery that implies 1 MW charging point)
    TCO parity: 2 years
Hans De Keulenaer

The transition to a Zero Emission Vehicles fleet for cars in the EU by 2050 - 1 views

shared by Hans De Keulenaer on 14 Nov 17 - No Cached
  • Decarbonising transport is central to achieving Europe’s policy commitments on climate change. T ransport is expected to deliver a 60% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of the EU for 2050. Achieving these commitments is expected to require a complete decarbonisation of the passenger car fleet. The more ambitious COP21 commitment to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C will also likely demand a complete decarbonisation of transport by 2050.
  • Attaining a 100% ZEV fleet by 2050 will require all new car sales to be ZEV by 2035 (assuming a similar vehicle life-time as today) and a substantially faster introduction of ZEVs and PHEVs than current policy and likely 2025 policies will achieve .
  • Compared to the CO2 emission reductions targeted in the current EU plan, the transition to a 100% ZEV car fleet by 2050 will result in an additional reduction of the cumulative CO2 emissions in the period 2020 and 2050 of 2.2 to 3.9 gigatonnes. The current EU White Paper for T ransport, targets to reduce the transport emissions by 60% compared to 1990.
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  • The best option for a rapid emission reduction is to focus on BEVs rather than PHEVs whereby the EU goes directly and aggressively to 100% ZEV sales. A scenario where PHEVs are first will push the strong ZEV growth further into the future and will ultimately require a larger effort at a later time. However, the impact of (an early fleet of) PHEVs on reducing ZEV costs, increasing consumer acceptance and promoting investments in charging / fuelling infra is difficult to predict / model and may play an important role as well.
  • The “Tank to Wheel” amount of energy needed for transport will be reduced by 78% compared to today for a transition to a BEV passenger car fleet. A transition to a 100% fuel cell electric vehicle fleet will result in a 46% reduction of energy for the EU’s car fleet.
  • Around 1,740 million barrels of oil per year could be saved by 2050 with the transition to a zero-emission passenger car fleet, the equivalent of € 78 billion at the current price of 45 $ per barrel.
  • The GHGs from oil will potentially get higher if shifting to for example oil sands .
  • Purchase cost parity is assumed to be achieved in the period 2022-2026 for a BEV and a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), with BEVs being comparatively lower in cost after that. Parity at Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) level will be achieved 2 to 4 years before the purchase cost parity is achieved. The average TCO for a ZEV will be €0.04 to €0.06 per kilometre less than an ICEV by 2030.
  • This represents societal savings of € 140 billion to € 210 billion per year for a 100% ZEV EU car fleet.
  • A mass market for ZEV cars will create synergy for the cost competitive development of a ZEV LCV (Light Commercial V ehicles) market representing 17% of the light vehicles emissions. It will also accelerate the development of a HDV (Heavy Duty V ehicle) ZEV / PHEV market for passenger and goods transportation. It will also free up advanced biofuels for other transport sectors.
  • A lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity of 400 to 600 Gigawatt hours will be required at the point where 100% of the passenger cars in Europe sold will be BEV . This is the equivalent of around 10 to 14 “Giga factories” representing a value of €40 to 60 billion per year for cars alone.
  • In addition, as BEVs have superior driving performance characteristics and people used to driving electric do not return to ICEVs, the transition may become demand driven once the price, range and infrastructure barriers have been removed.
Hans De Keulenaer

The Infrastucture Report - 10 views

It took me 4 years to respond, but that should not stop me. Energy touches on many aspects of society. We have for example the energy-water nexus which received a lot of attention over the past yea...

renewables electricity wind carbon usa buildings technology energy management efficiency transport industry

Hans De Keulenaer

Qpinch | Industrial energy and emission saving - 0 views

  • The Qpinch Heat Transformer recovers residual heat from 40 °C / 104 °F and up. It is applicable on a megawatt scale throughout all major industries that use industrial heat, including food and feed, oil & chemicals, paper and pulp, cement and manufacturing.
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    A solution using pinch technology claiming a coefficient of performance of 30 (units of heat per unit of electricity consumed).
Hans De Keulenaer

Trends and Innovations in copper demand - 3 views

  • The International Copper Association (ICA) is the leading authority on the fundamentals of future copper demand and substitution. ICA’s portfolio of material demand and substitution work covers global studies, surveys and detailed data sets. Full studies and data sets are used by ICA and its members for market development purposes, and select information is available to market commentators.
Phil Slade

24housing » Your News » New Time Lapse Video: 49 Heating Upgrades in 2 Minutes! - 3 views

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    Busy day at the bungalow park
Phil Slade

http://www.transitionengineering.org - 1 views

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    Great idea but appears somewhat dormant. It is hard to keep a volunteer group like this going. I speak from personal experience.
Pannir selvam

http://www.sealab.gr/download/attachments/6619619/Small+scale+biodiesel+production+econ... - 1 views

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    Raw materials and utilities cost
    Biodiesel is the product obtained when a vegetable oil or an
    animal fat reacts chemically with an alcohol to produce fatty acid
    alkyl esters. A catalyst such as sodium or potassium hydroxide is
    required. Glycerol is produced as a co-product (Van Gerpen et al.,
    2004). The most common stoichiometries description of the reaction
    is:
    1000 kg of oil þ 110 kg of methanol/1000 kg of biodiesel
    þ 110 kg of glycerol
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