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Ferdig says the large numbers of academic go-getters taking online classes could account for some of the rosy findings in the first wave of studies of online coursetaking, since highly motivated students are likely to fare well in any academic environment. But later studies controlled more carefully for students’ academic differences at the starting gate and continued to find learning gains.

“It isn’t something that’s only for bright kids or only for kids who are well below grade level, because it may not work for many of them, either,” says Saul Rockman, the president and chief executive officer of Rockman et al., a San Francisco research group.

Rockman says his research suggests that succeeding in an online course is “more a matter of learning style.” Is the student an independent learner, for instance? Does he or she struggle with reading and writing?

Building in student-support mechanisms helps keep less academically motivated students from failing or dropping out of online classes, according to researchers.

“Whether that’s 24-hour technical support, tutorial support, parental vigilance, or face-to-face site coordinators or mentors,” Cavanaugh says. Mentors and site coordinators seem to be especially linked to marked improvements in student results in large high schools, she adds.

“The mentor plays an important role in making sure Johnny or Susie logs in to the course on a regular basis and provides a point of contact for the instructor,” says Jamey Fitzpatrick, the president and chief executive officer of Michigan Virtual University, which currently enrolls 15,000 students, mostly in middle and high school

Some of the early studies emerging from the database helped dispel some concerns about potential detrimental effects of online coursetaking on students’ social development, according to Ferdig. Very few online students, those studies showed, took electronic classes full time. Rather, they combined virtual schooling with traditional courses. The studies also showed that students communicated regularly online with teachers and classmates.

Cavanaugh, of the University of Florida, says there is also a “general consensus”—if not air-tight research findings—that the more interactive the courses can be, the higher their success rates.

Ongoing studies are also beginning to look at whether so-called “hybrid” or “blended” courses—classes in which only 30 to 70 percent of the instruction takes place online and the rest is in person—are any more successful than all-electronic versions

“In general,” Russell says, “I don’t think this body of research [on online education] is totally developed at this stage.”

You change because the world has changed and you know that not challenging the status quo is the riskiest thing you can do at this point. You change because you love learning and you love children and you know they need you to lead the way in this fast paced changing world and to do that you have to find your own way first. That is why you and they should change

Online learning tools and technologies are becoming less frustrating (for authoring, teaching, and learning) and more powerful. Instructional content development can increasingly be done by content experts, faculty, instructional designers, and trainers. As a result, online content is becoming easier to maintain. Social interaction and social presence tools such as discussion forums, social networking and resource sharing, IM, and Twitter are increasingly being used to provide formal and informal support that has been missing too long from self-paced instruction. I am extremely optimistic about the convergence of "traditional" instruction and support with technology-based instruction and support. —Patti Shank, Learning Peaks, USA

In 2009 learning professionals will start to move beyond using Web 2.0 only for "rogue," informal learning projects and start making proactive plans for how to apply emerging technologies as part of organization-wide learning strategy. In a recent Chapman Alliance survey, 39 percent of learning professionals say they don't use Web 2.0 tools at all; 41 percent say they use them for "rogue" projects (under the radar screen); and only 20 percent indicate they have a plan for using them on a regular basis for learning. Early adopters such as Sun Microsystems and the Peace Corp have made changes that move Web 2.0 tools to the front-end of the learning path, while still using structured learning (LMS and courseware) as critical components of their learning platforms. —Bryan Chapman, Chief Learning Strategist and Industry Analyst, Chapman Alliance, USA

And technology's broad accessibility, Gartner believes, is changing the paradigm for how students receive instruction. Like the growing trend of telecommuting to work, Rust predicted, virtual and distance education soon will trump the delivery of instruction via brick-and-mortar classrooms.