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Top Trends for 2009: On our GloboTrends wiki homepage, we will keep an updated list of global macro trends that we think are the most important to keep an eye on. Some of this list are statistically unlikely to occur, but if they did, it could cause global disruption. These unlikely events were dubbed Black Swan's in a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb , or might be called the "fat tail" probability in statistics. Others trends we are watching in the GloboTrends wiki are currently ongoing right now (such as our coverage of the credit crisis, deleveraging, margin calls, etc), and we will talk about how they happened, and predict their likely outcome. The format of a wiki makes the document dynamic, so any of our community is welcome to help shape our views of these important developments. Please log in to our wiki, and feel free to comment... In no particular order, here are the global macro trends that we think will be most significant in the coming year (2009): 1. credit crisis of 2007/08 will continue on into 2009...this one is clear...but, how long will it last? how will it fundamentally change international finance? Add your comments to our wiki... 2. fiscal stimulus and crisis recovery 2009 3. deleveraging of Financial markets will continue. In my opinion, this is the most destructive of all the trends. 4. Risk of deflation in the US as Fed Funds target rate approaches zero (other analysts see the opposite risk of potential hyper inflation). Add your comments.. 5. more... add to this list.. Predictions-for-2009

The National Bureau of Statistics released figures this week announcing a 51.8% y-o-y rise in China's copper products output to 914,400t in February. The year-to-date total of 1,580,000t indicates that there was a 21.6% increase in copper product output from the previous year, while the m-o-m rise was 33.4% in February.

According to Ukraine's State Statistics Committee, wire and cable production in the first five months of 2012 was down by 3.7% y-o-y. Insulated winding wire production during the period was up by 600t to reach 5,300t, however low voltage energy (less than 1kV) and power cable fabrication were down by 6.4% y-o-y and 86.4% y-o-y, respectively reaching 197,700km and 2,200km .

China's economy might continue to decelerate as a result of slower industrial output growth and weakening overseas demand, according to a posting on the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) website

Mexican copper output rose to 23,766 tonnes in September, up 6.5 percent from the same month a year earlier, the national statistics agency said on Friday.

Led by China, the developing nations of the world now consume more energy than the industrialized countries, according to the 2009 BP Statistical Review of World Energy. BP released its annual review of world energy use on June 10, noting that industrialized countries reduced their energy consumption by 1.3% in 2008, led by a 2.8% drop in the United States, marking the country's steepest single-year decline since 1982. That decrease was counterbalanced by increasing energy use in developing countries, which caused global energy consumption to increase by 1.4%.

But today the scenario is different, with builders getting a mix of mid end and affordable housing into their portfolio. Raminder Grover, CEO-Homebay Residential, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj, says the revival in sales has been, conservatively speaking, to the tune of around 25% across the mid-to-high income segments, according to his company's sales records. Rohtas Goel, CMD of Delhi-based Omaxe too says there has been a 30% increase in sales thanks to factors such as a reversal in general economic sentiment after the elections and more options available in affordable housing. Statistics too would appear to bear this out. India's largest real estate developer DLF says it has sold almost 1,500 flats in various cities since April, notably some 400 flats in its mainstay market Gurgaon, 700 in Bangalore, 100 plots in Indore, 200 flats in Hyderabad and 50 in Cochin. Rival Unitech has managed to sell more than 4,000 units in the last two and a half months in the National Capital Region, Chennai and Mumbai. Omaxe has also sold almost 500 apartments in its Omaxe Eternity project in Vrindavan.

On the year, the picture is of continued growth, with output in the construction industry increasing by 3.5% in September 2014 compared with September 2013. This was the 16th consecutive period of year-on-year monthly growth. Office for National Statistics (ONS)

'while Electrical market applications decreased 6.7% in 2014'

The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association reported that output of copper products amounted to 1,585,022t in Jan-Feb 2012, indicating a rise of 33% y-o-y. This production value tallies with the earlier reported semis output figure of 1,580,000t from the National Bureau of Statistics for the same period.

It was reported that between January and November of 2011 a total of 168.2Mkva of newly built power substation capacity and 28,045km of associated power line was installed. Furthermore, the statistics from China Electricity Council show that power grid investment over the first eleven months of 2011, which totalled RMB311.4B, up by 20.1% y-o-y, outstripped power source investment over the same period, which amounted to RMB309.3B, and grew by 0.5% y-o-y.

Southwire Co. Inc., a US cablemaker with a focus on building wire production, said that the US residential construction industry has bottomed-out after near-continuous contraction since being heavily impacted by the global economic crisis in late-2008. The company said that it is now necessary to use statistics on housing area under construction in order to analyse and pre-empt demand as government figures on housing starts cause an overestimation of the strength of the recovery in wire and cable demand. This is due to homebuilders more frequently electing to construct smaller homes, requiring less wire and cable than average-sized homes.

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) reported that the average operating rates of copper cablemakers in China rose by 10 percentage points to reach 78.7% in August. Newly tendered contracts from the State Grid Corporation of China during July and August led to the production increase. Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics also indicate that cable output rose by 2.5% m-o-m to 3.53M km in August. In addition to this, an August survey of Chinese copper wirerod fabricators by SMM showed a 2 percentage point increase in the industry's average utilisation rate from the previous month, reaching 75%.

According to the International Copper Study Group, the world refined copper market is expected to exhibit a surplus of 200,000t in 2010, up from a surplus of 166,000t in 2009. The ICSG believes that increased supply is forecast to match the growth in demand. After the 36th regular meeting of its statistical committee in Antofagasta, Chile, the ICSG reported that refined production is estimated to reach 19.1Mt in 2010 whilst consumption is projected to total 18.9Mt. As for 2011, it is anticipated that the refined copper market will see a deficit of 435,000t, with production at 19.3Mt and consumption at 19.7Mt. It was commented that improved economic activity will boost end-use demand faster than the growth in production. In addition, refined production will grow only slightly due to a shortage of concentrates.