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A new era for commodities Cheap resources underpinned economic growth for much of the 20th century. The 21st will be different. NOVEMBER 2011 * Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, and Fraser Thompson Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Sustainability & Resource Productivity Practice In This Article Exhibit: In little more than a decade, soaring commodity prices have erased a century of steady declines. About the authors Comments (2) Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, volatile commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past eight years alone, they have undone the decline of the previous century, rising to levels not seen since the early 1900s (exhibit). In addition, volatility is now greater than at any time since the oil-shocked 1970s because commodity prices increasingly move in lockstep. Our analysis suggests that they will remain high and volatile for at least the next 20 years if current trends hold-barring a major macroeconomic shock-as global resource markets oscillate in response to surging global demand and inelastic supplies. Back to top Demand for energy, food, metals, and water should rise inexorably as three billion new middle-class consumers emerge in the next two decades.1 The global car fleet, for example, is expected almost to double, to 1.7 billion, by 2030. In India, we expect calorie intake per person to rise by 20 percent during that period, while per capita meat consumption in China could increase by 60 percent, to 80 kilograms (176 pounds) a year. Demand for urban infrastructure also will soar. China, for example, could annually add floor space totaling 2.5 times the entire residential and commercial square footage of the city of Chicago, while India could add floor space equal to another Chicago every year. Such dramatic growth in demand for commodities actually isn't unusual. Similar factors were at play throughout the 20th century as the planet's population tripled and demand for various resource

"Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years."

* Momentum strengthened in the latter half of 2013, and should strengthen further in 2014-largely due to improvements in the advanced economies. * Yet, global growth is still stuck in low gear. It remains below its potential, which we think is somewhere around 4 percent. * Even for the advanced economies, however, the outlook is still subject to significant risks. With inflation running below many central banks' targets, we see rising risks of deflation, which could prove disastrous for the recovery. * During the years of crisis, we have relied on the emerging markets to keep the global economy afloat. Together with the developing countries, they accounted for three-quarters of global growth over the past half decade. However, a growing number of emerging markets are slowing down as the economic cycle turns.

Despite a slowdown in the global economy and a softening in demand for aluminium rolled products in some regions, JSE-listed aluminium reroller Hulamin expected global demand to increase this year. CEO Alan Fourie on Tuesday commented that the company, which exported about 70% of its products, had seen some softening in demand for aluminium rolled products in some regions, but added that demand for these products was expected to grow by between 5% and 7% this year. "Obviously the slowdown of the [global] economy puts pressure on margins, it is an economic consequence, but we are still selling into a growing international market," he said. Locally, however, the softening economic climate was expected to impact on sales volumes for the second half of the year. However, Hulamin expected these high-value products to continue growing as a percentage of its sales in the next few years. Fourie noted that five years ago, these products equated to just over 50% of its sales volumes, while their contribution was just below 60% in 2007. They now comprised about 64% of its total sales volumes. Meanwhile, Hulamin stated that its costs had increased by 16%, influenced by a 58% increase in energy costs, increasing alloying costs caused by magnesium prices rising from $2 000/t to $4 500/t, and increases in other metals. Excluding the cost of increasing energy and metals prices, the company's costs had increased by 6%. Fourie noted that while the rising aluminium costs did not affect its profitability, it did have an effect on its working capital. "We hold aluminium in our working capital. So when the aluminium price increases, the cash tied up in working capital increases and we have seen a significant increase in working capital during this period, because the rand price of aluminium has increased by close to 40% in the last six months," he explained. Further, Fourie did not expect the increasing electricity prices to have too great an impact on its futu

Top Trends for 2009: On our GloboTrends wiki homepage, we will keep an updated list of global macro trends that we think are the most important to keep an eye on. Some of this list are statistically unlikely to occur, but if they did, it could cause global disruption. These unlikely events were dubbed Black Swan's in a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb , or might be called the "fat tail" probability in statistics. Others trends we are watching in the GloboTrends wiki are currently ongoing right now (such as our coverage of the credit crisis, deleveraging, margin calls, etc), and we will talk about how they happened, and predict their likely outcome. The format of a wiki makes the document dynamic, so any of our community is welcome to help shape our views of these important developments. Please log in to our wiki, and feel free to comment... In no particular order, here are the global macro trends that we think will be most significant in the coming year (2009): 1. credit crisis of 2007/08 will continue on into 2009...this one is clear...but, how long will it last? how will it fundamentally change international finance? Add your comments to our wiki... 2. fiscal stimulus and crisis recovery 2009 3. deleveraging of Financial markets will continue. In my opinion, this is the most destructive of all the trends. 4. Risk of deflation in the US as Fed Funds target rate approaches zero (other analysts see the opposite risk of potential hyper inflation). Add your comments.. 5. more... add to this list.. Predictions-for-2009

The global wind turbine market has seen rapid shifts in scale and product sophistication on the back of booming demand for wind power globally. Effective wind turbine pricing is a major challenge for all manufacturers as they strive to keep pace with higher volume and more complex demand. Suppliers are expanding their sales and production globally. Turbine prices and cost of installations are increasing as multiple players move on 2 MW turbines and above.

"Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy Tweet this talk! (we'll add the headline and the URL) Post to: Share on Twitter Email This Favorite Download inShare Share on StumbleUpon Share on Reddit Share on Facebook TED Conversations Got an idea, question, or debate inspired by this talk? Start a TED Conversation, or join one of these: Green Home Energy=Hydrogen Generators-alternative sources Started by Kathleen Gilligan-Smith 1 Comment What is the real missing link in renewable energy? Started by Enrico Petrucco 8 Comments Comment on this Talk 60 total comments Sign in to add comments or Join (It's free and fast!) Sort By: smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Nice smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Good David Mackey 0 Reply 3 hours ago: Superb invention, but I would suggest one more standard mantra that they should move on from and that is the idea of power being supplied by a centralised grid. This technology seems to me to be much more beneficial on a local scale, what if every home had its own battery, then home power generation becomes economically more viable for everyone. If you could show that a system like this could pay for itself in say 5 years then every home would want one. Plus for this to be implemented on a large scale requires massive investment that could be decades away. Share the technology and lets get it in homes by next year. Great ted talk. Jon Senior 0 Reply 1 hour ago: I agree 100%. Localised energy production would also make energy consumers more conscious of their consumption and encourage efforts to reduce it. We can invent and invent all we want, but the fast solution to allowing renewable energies to take centre stage is to reduce the base energy draw. With lower baseline consumption, smaller "always on" generators are required to keep the grid operational. Town and house-l

With the consumption increasing faster than production in the global market for zinc, market participants' anxiety about the global supply-demand imbalance of zinc is deepening. Zinc is used in brass.

Monday, 28 July 2008 \nGuangdong Chigo Air Conditioner, a large-sized modern enterprise integrating the development, production and sales of household and commercial air conditioners, recently announced its agent in Egypt successfully won the contract for the Huawei correspondence station in Egypt after seven hardworking months.\n\n Huawei is said to have already achieved 12.56 billion dollars sales revenue, becoming one of the top five global telecommunications equipment producer, now with primacy globally, especially in Africa. Contracts for the correspondence station of Huawei in Egypt were mainly in the hands of Carrier for a long time, which means other brands could not compete with it and usually did not pass the test phase. Because the equipment for each station was valued at over 300 thousand yuan, the AC units could not run for a long time without a reliable capability guarantee. Right now the first set of Chigo splits is already installed in the station.\n\nThe vice president of Chigo Overseas Marketing Department , Mr. Peter Liao, said :"The success of this project means a lot for us. The intergrated ability of Chigo is already at new stage, being the supplier of a globally famous communication company. The cooperation with Huawei is meaningful for Chigo's development in the North African and African markets." For the success of the Huawei project, Huawei's subsidiaries in Libya and Sudan have also started to cooperate with Chigo, reveals the company's press release. \n\n\n

LONDON, UK, August 12, 2008. Analyst New Energy Finance says the days of easy carbon trading may be over as the low hanging fruit of the cheap carbon credits in the developing world have now been harvested. To date, the cheapest way of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have come from projects eliminating high global warming potential (GWP) gases in developing countries, notably China. These projects involve the destruction of two waste gases from industrial facilities: the hydrofluorocarbon HFC-23 and nitrous dioxide, or 'laughing gas' (N2O), both of which are several thousand times more potent in terms of global warming that CO2. The size of the emissions reductions achievable from these projects relative to the scale of the investment required, that these carbon credits are so cheap - around €1/tCO2e. In comparison, costs claimed by project developers of renewable energy and energy efficiency projects are €5-15 per tonne and the global market price for carbon countries from developing countries are around €20/tCO2e.

The commodity super-cycle is not over, it is just pausing. For the world economy to resume growth of 5 per cent, energy supply must expand by a similar rate. But with lower oil prices and a credit crunch, energy investment is plummeting, suggesting global energy demand will eventually pick up more rapidly than productive energy capacity. Assuming the ongoing global recession does not turn into a multi-year event that pushes energy demand down structurally, steep decline rates could again put upward pressure on oil prices as soon as 2010 or 2011. In particular, if the low oil price/high cost of money environment persists for most of this year and next, our base case scenario for non-OPEC production could prove optimistic, exacerbating the second leg of the commodity super-cycle. If and when the global economy starts to recover, too many dollars chasing too few barrels will only lead to much higher oil prices.

Global copper demand probably won't see much of a recovery until 2011 because of lower global GDP forecasts, a marked slowdown in China's consumption growth and modest supply in the near term, Credit Suisse said in a note Thursday.

General Motors (GM) announced that it is adding the world's largest rooftop solar photovoltaic power installation to its car assembly plant located in Figueruelas, Zaragoza, Spain. When the project is completed in fall 2008, the Zaragoza solar installation will cover about 2 million square feet of roof at the plant and include about 85,000 solar panels. When fully operational, the Zaragoza solar installation will generate about 12 megawatts of power at its highest output. The installation will generate about 15.1 million kWh of power annually, which is equivalent to the demand of 4,575 households with an average annual consumption of 3,300 kWh in Spain. "The Zaragoza project demonstrates proof that GM is actively accelerating our efforts to be part of the solution to the environmental issues and challenges facing our world," said Gary Cowger, GM group vice president of global manufacturing and labor relations. "We are proud to be a global leader in the usage of renewable energy."

Ireland's OpenHydro and Germany's RWE are spending millions to try to turn the power of waves into electricity With oil prices hitting almost daily record highs and global warming climbing up the public agenda, the need for alternative energy sources has never been more urgent. But while wind and solar have dominated the recent rush to invest in renewables, market watchers reckon it could now be marine energy's turn to shine. Ocean power-using the energy from waves or tidal flows to produce electricity-is quickly coming of age as a viable green resource that could help meet ambitious global targets to reduce greenhouse gases and dependency on fossil fuels. European and North American power companies such as Canada's Emera (EMA.TO) and Germany's RWE (RWEG.DE) are spending millions to fund wind and tidal projects. This investment has led to a new generation of more efficient technologies, with dozens of prototypes expected to be ready for commercial deployment within the next five years. "There's huge interest in both wave and tidal technology," says Thomas Boeckmann, clean tech analyst at market research firm StrategyEye in London. "It's gaining a lot of attention from energy companies, which will be able to offer financial backing and technical expertise to these startups."