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US Renewable Energy Tax Credits Could Be Voted On This Week - 0 views

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    A vote could come as early as this week in the U.S. Senate on a bill introduced by Senate Tax Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) containing a one-year renewable energy production tax credit (PTC) extension and a small wind turbine investment tax credit. The Senate bill, S. 3335, contains a one-year PTC extension at its current value. After December 31, 2009, any further extension would include the "presumption" of a cost cap, which would, through a complex formula, put a ceiling on the value of the credits of no greater than 35% of project value. The small wind ITC has a cap of US $4,000 per system.The 10-year cost for the PTC, including all technologies to which it applies, is projected to be approximately US $7 billion, while the ITC, which includes solar, would cost approximately US $907 million over 10 years. The bill also includes provisions to extend through 2014 the tax credits for solar energy, fuel cell and microturbine property, as well as the residential energy efficient property tax credit. Marine renewable energies could also benefit from the bill as credits to build wave, tidal, current and ocean thermal energy conversion systems of at least 150 kilowatts (kW) are extended through the end of 2011.
Glycon Garcia

Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy | Video on TED.com - 0 views

  • Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy
  • What's the key to using alternative energy, like solar and wind? Storage -- so we can have power on tap even when the sun's not out and the wind's not blowing. In this accessible, inspiring talk, Donald Sadoway takes to the blackboard to show us the future of large-scale batteries that store renewable energy. As he says: "We need to think about the problem differently. We need to think big. We need to think cheap." Donald S
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    "Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy Tweet this talk! (we'll add the headline and the URL) Post to: Share on Twitter Email This Favorite Download inShare Share on StumbleUpon Share on Reddit Share on Facebook TED Conversations Got an idea, question, or debate inspired by this talk? Start a TED Conversation, or join one of these: Green Home Energy=Hydrogen Generators-alternative sources Started by Kathleen Gilligan-Smith 1 Comment What is the real missing link in renewable energy? Started by Enrico Petrucco 8 Comments Comment on this Talk 60 total comments Sign in to add comments or Join (It's free and fast!) Sort By: smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Nice smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Good David Mackey 0 Reply 3 hours ago: Superb invention, but I would suggest one more standard mantra that they should move on from and that is the idea of power being supplied by a centralised grid. This technology seems to me to be much more beneficial on a local scale, what if every home had its own battery, then home power generation becomes economically more viable for everyone. If you could show that a system like this could pay for itself in say 5 years then every home would want one. Plus for this to be implemented on a large scale requires massive investment that could be decades away. Share the technology and lets get it in homes by next year. Great ted talk. Jon Senior 0 Reply 1 hour ago: I agree 100%. Localised energy production would also make energy consumers more conscious of their consumption and encourage efforts to reduce it. We can invent and invent all we want, but the fast solution to allowing renewable energies to take centre stage is to reduce the base energy draw. With lower baseline consumption, smaller "always on" generators are required to keep the grid operational. Town and house-l
Colin Bennett

After the era of excess - 0 views

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    Instead, America's consumption binge drew support from two major asset bubbles-property and credit. Courtesy of cheap and freely available credit, in conjunction with record housing price appreciation, consumers tripled the rate of net equity extraction from their homes, from 3 percent of disposable personal income in 2001 to 9 percent in 2006. Only by levering increasingly overvalued homes could Americans go on the biggest consumption binge in modern history. And now those twin bubbles-property and credit-have burst, and so has the US consumption bubble: real consumer spending fell at an unprecedented 3.5 percent average annual rate in the two final quarters of 2008. While the original excesses were made in America, the rest of the world was delighted to go along for the ride. With the United States lacking in internal saving, it had to import surplus savings from abroad in order to grow-and ran massive current-account and trade deficits to attract that capital. This fit perfectly with the macro-imbalances of the export-led developing countries of Asia, whose exports exceeded a record 45 percent of regional GDP in 2007-fully ten percentage points higher than their share ten years earlier, in the depths of the Asian financial crisis. China led the charge, taking its exports from 20 percent, to 40 percent of its GDP over the past seven years alone. The export-led growth in developing Asia could well be described as a second-order bubble-in effect, a derivative of the one in US consumption.
Panos Kotseras

US - Wolverine Tube's credit ratings - 0 views

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    Standard & Poor has announced that it placed credit ratings for Wolverine Tube Inc. on CreditWatch. The decision includes its 'CC' corporate credit rating and 'C' senior unsecured debt. Wolverine Tube announced its decision regarding an exchange offer of senior notes due 2009 for new ones due 2012. Given the current market conditions and the financial position of the company, this decision raises default risk levels. Standard & Poor will monitor the exchange offer.
Brian Butler

GloboTrends Wiki / FrontPage - 0 views

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    Top Trends for 2009: On our GloboTrends wiki homepage, we will keep an updated list of global macro trends that we think are the most important to keep an eye on. Some of this list are statistically unlikely to occur, but if they did, it could cause global disruption. These unlikely events were dubbed Black Swan's in a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb , or might be called the "fat tail" probability in statistics. Others trends we are watching in the GloboTrends wiki are currently ongoing right now (such as our coverage of the credit crisis, deleveraging, margin calls, etc), and we will talk about how they happened, and predict their likely outcome. The format of a wiki makes the document dynamic, so any of our community is welcome to help shape our views of these important developments. Please log in to our wiki, and feel free to comment... In no particular order, here are the global macro trends that we think will be most significant in the coming year (2009): 1. credit crisis of 2007/08 will continue on into 2009...this one is clear...but, how long will it last? how will it fundamentally change international finance? Add your comments to our wiki... 2. fiscal stimulus and crisis recovery 2009 3. deleveraging of Financial markets will continue. In my opinion, this is the most destructive of all the trends. 4. Risk of deflation in the US as Fed Funds target rate approaches zero (other analysts see the opposite risk of potential hyper inflation). Add your comments.. 5. more... add to this list.. Predictions-for-2009
Wade Ren

The end of Bretton Woods 2? - 0 views

  • The Bretton Woods 2 system – where China and then the oil-exporters provided (subsidized) financing to the US to sustain their exports – will come close to ending, at least temporarily. If the US and Europe are not importing much, the rest of the world won’t be exporting much.
  • And rather than ending with a whimper, Bretton Woods 2 may end with a bang. In some sense Bretton Woods 2 has been on life support for a while now. China’s recent export growth has depended far more on Europe than on the US. US demand for non-oil imports peaked in 2006. One irony of the past year is that the US was borrowing far more from China that it was buying from China. Campaign rhetoric that the US was paying for Saudi oil with funds borrowed from China isn’t far off – though it leaves out the fact that the US also borrows from Saudi Arabia to pay for Venezuelan, Mexican and Nigerian oil.
  • If Bretton Woods 2 ends in 2009 – if US demand for imports falls sharply in the last part of 2008 and early 2009, bringing the US trade deficit down – it won’t have ended in the way Nouriel and I outlined back in late 2004 and early 2005. We postulated that foreign demand for US debt would dry up – pushing up US Treasury rates and delivering a nasty shock to a housing-centric economy. As Brad DeLong notes, it didn’t quite play out that way. The US and European banking system collapsed before the balance of financial terror collapsed. Dr. DeLong writes: All of us from Lawrence Summers to John Taylor were expecting a very different financial crisis. We were expecting the ‘Balance of Financial Terror’ between Asia and America to collapse and produce chaos. We are not having that financial crisis. Instead we are having a very different financial crisis. Catastrophic failures of risk management throughout the entire banking sector caused a relatively minor collapse in housing prices to freeze up global finance to a degree that has not been seen since the Great Depression. The end result of this crisis though could be rather similar: a sharp contraction in credit, a fall in US economic activity, a fall in US imports and a fall in the amount of foreign financing the US needs.* The US government is (possibly) trying to offset the fall in private demand by borrowing more and spending more — but as of now there is realistic risk that the fall in private activity will trump the fiscal stimulus.
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  • Or, to put it more succinctly, Bretton Woods 2, as it evolved, hinged both on the willingness of foreign central banks to take the currency risk associated with lending to the US at low rates in dollars despite the United States large current account deficit AND the willingness of private financial intermediaries to take the credit risk associated with lending at low rates to highly-indebted US households.
  • But now US financial institutions are neither willing nor able to take on the risk of lending even more to US households. For a while the US government was able to ramp up its lending to households (notably through the Agencies) and in the process effectively take over the function previously performed by the private financial system (over the last four quarters, the flow of funds data indicates that the Agencies provided around $800 billion of net credit to US households). But now the US government is struggling to keep the financial system from collapsing. It doesn’t seem like it will able to avoid a sharp fall in the overall availability of credit.
  • It is now clear how the financial sector kept profits up: it took on more risk, as it shifted from borrowing short to buy safe long-term assets (Treasuries and Agencies) to borrowing short to buy risky long-term assets. Leverage in the system also increased (and for some broker dealers that seems to be an understatement), as more and more financial institutions believed that the US had entered into an era of little macroeconomic or financial volatility. The net result seems to have been a truly explosive concentration of risk in the hands of a core set of financial intermediaries in the US and Europe. Securitization – it seems – actually didn’t disperse risk into the hands of institutions able to handle it.
  • I hope that the process of adjustment now underway isn’t as sharp as I fear. The US economy gradually can shift from producing MBS for sale to US investors flush with cash from the sale of safe securities to China and Saudi Arabia to producing goods and services for export – but it cannot shift from churning out complex debt securities to producing goods and services overnight. Indeed, in a slowing US and global economy, improvements in the US deficit will likely come from faster falls in US imports than in US exports – not from ongoing growth in US exports.
  • But right now it looks like there is a real risk that the adjustment won’t be gradual. And it certainly looks like the flow of Chinese (and Gulf) savings to US households over the past few years has produced one of the largest misallocations of global capital in recent history.
  • US taxpayers are going to be hit with a large tab for the credit risk taken on by undercapitalized financial intermediaries. Chinese taxpayers may get hit with a similar tab for the losses their central bank incurred by overpaying for US and European assets as part of its policy of holding its exchange rate down. The TARP is around 5% of US GDP. There are plausible estimates that China’s currency losses will prove to be of comparable magnitude. Charles Dumas puts the cost at above 5% of GDP: “Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research estimates that China makes 1-2 per cent on its (largely) dollar reserves. It then loses up to 10 per cent on the exchange rate and suffers a Chinese inflation rate of 6 per cent for a total real return in renminbi of about minus 15 per cent. That is a loss of $270bn a year, or a stunning 7-8 per cent of gross domestic product.”
  • Jboss — if some of the Chinese inflow could be redirected into investment in alternative energy, that would indeed be a win/ win. Some infrastructure bank style ideas have promise in my view — basically, the flow that used to go to freddie/ fannie could go to wind farms and the like. I would rather see more adjustment in china (i.e. more investment in Chinese infrastructure) but during the transition, if there is one, to a lower Chinese surplus, redirecting chinese financing toward new energy tech would be offer real benefits.
  • China likes 3rd generation nuclear power. Safe, lower cost than NG or coal, very much lower cost than coal with carbon sequestering, and zero carbon footprint. Wind is about 4X more expensive than our electric costs now. That’s in an area with consistent wind. Solar is worse. I don’t know if we can sucker them into investing in our technical fairy tales. Here’s a easy primer on 3rd gen nukes. http://nuclearinfo.net/Nuclearpower/WebHomeCostOfNuclearPower
    • Wade Ren
       
      is this true?
  • btw, solar thermal installations are so easy & affordable to retrofit onto existing structures, it’s amazing that there aren’t more of them here…until you realize that they work to decentralize energy. cedric — china is already doing it in china. they are way ahead of the curve over there. my partner brought back some photos of shanghai — rows of middle class homes each with a small solar panel on top. and that’s just the tip of the iceberg — an architect friend just came back from beijing and wants to move to china (he’s into designing self-powering structures and is incredibly frustrated by the bureaucracy and cost-prohibitive measures in the US).
  • I went to engineering school right after the Arab Oil Embargo, and alternative energy was a hot topic then. All the same stuff you hear of nowadays. They even offered entire courses on it , which I took. Then my first mini career was in the power plant biz, before Volker killed it with interest rates and the Saudies killed any interest in alt. energy with their big oil field discovery. For the last 5 years I’ve been researching what’s changed, and it is frighteningly little. Solar cells are still expensive and only have a 15% conversion efficiency. They developed the new cost reduced film technology, but that knocks down efficiency to 7%. Wind power works where there is wind constantly. Generators are mature technology and are already 90 some percent efficient. Geothermal, tidal, ect. work where they are available. Looks like coal gasification and synfuel is out because it makes too much CO2. Good news is 3rd gen nuclear is way better than 1st gen plants. Hybrid cars are good, and battery technology is finally getting barely good enough for all electric cars to be practical.
  • According to news report today, Japan’s trade surplus is less than 1 billion $ in September 08, a whopping 94% decrease compared to September 07. Does it imply that going forward Japan can not buy as much treasury as before?
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ArcelorMittal Launches Cleantech and Carbon Funds - 0 views

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    ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT), a steel manufacturer based in New Deli, launched a clean technology venture capital fund to support ventures that have relevance for the carbon-intensive steel industry. The Fund has made its first investment of US$20 million in Miasolé, a California-based pioneer in the development of thin-film solar panels Miasolé has developed unique high volume manufacturing processes that enable efficient production of Copper Indium Gallium Selenium (CIGS) solar products on a flexible stainless steel substrate. This technology promises to dramatically lowers the installed cost of Photovoltaic (PV) systems and will enable renewable energy from the sun to replace carbon generating fossil fuels. Fund managers will be working with leading venture capital firms, including Bessemer Venture Partners, Khosla Ventures, and Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, to identify worthy cleantech ventures. ArcelorMittal also announced that it has created a new carbon fund in order to strategically engage in the carbon market and promote climate friendly solutions that are relevant for the steel industry. The fund, which has an initial investment commitment of €100 million (US$ 157 million) is currently looking at investment opportunities in renewable energy, energy efficiency, methane capture and greenhouse gas reducing technologies--all of which have the potential to generate carbon credits under the Kyoto Protocol. ArcelorMittal intends to use the carbon credits received from these Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation projects for compliance in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme.
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End of easy carbon trading? - 0 views

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    LONDON, UK, August 12, 2008. Analyst New Energy Finance says the days of easy carbon trading may be over as the low hanging fruit of the cheap carbon credits in the developing world have now been harvested. To date, the cheapest way of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have come from projects eliminating high global warming potential (GWP) gases in developing countries, notably China. These projects involve the destruction of two waste gases from industrial facilities: the hydrofluorocarbon HFC-23 and nitrous dioxide, or 'laughing gas' (N2O), both of which are several thousand times more potent in terms of global warming that CO2. The size of the emissions reductions achievable from these projects relative to the scale of the investment required, that these carbon credits are so cheap - around €1/tCO2e. In comparison, costs claimed by project developers of renewable energy and energy efficiency projects are €5-15 per tonne and the global market price for carbon countries from developing countries are around €20/tCO2e.
Colin Bennett

US clean energy stimulus - 0 views

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    Mr Obama's stimulus includes calls for $38bn in direct government spending and $18bn in tax breaks for clean energy spread over the next 10 years, according to Dewey & LeBoeuf, the law firm. Owners of solar, wind, and other clean energy facilities will be able to claim tax credits against the cost of new equipment, helping attract big institutional investors who have been put off investing in clean energy because of uncertainty about taxes. But the short timeframe - credits can only be claimed for projects that are up and running within the next three to four years - means projects still on the drawing board may not be ready in time to qualify.
Susanna Keung

Standard and Poor Announced Wolverine Tube's Credit Rating - 0 views

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    Standard & Poor has announced that it placed credit ratings for Wolverine Tube Inc. on CreditWatch. The decision includes its 'CC' corporate credit rating and 'C' senior unsecured debt. Wolverine Tube announced its decision regarding an exchange offer of senior notes due 2009 for new ones due 2012. Given the current market conditions and the financial position of the company, this decision raises default risk levels. Standard & Poor will monitor the exchange offer.
Colin Bennett

Global Copper Demand Won't See A Recovery Until 2011 says Credit Suisse - 0 views

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    Global copper demand probably won't see much of a recovery until 2011 because of lower global GDP forecasts, a marked slowdown in China's consumption growth and modest supply in the near term, Credit Suisse said in a note Thursday.
Colin Bennett

Credit crunch will exacerbate the commodity super-cycle - FT - 0 views

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    The commodity super-cycle is not over, it is just pausing. For the world economy to resume growth of 5 per cent, energy supply must expand by a similar rate. But with lower oil prices and a credit crunch, energy investment is plummeting, suggesting global energy demand will eventually pick up more rapidly than productive energy capacity. Assuming the ongoing global recession does not turn into a multi-year event that pushes energy demand down structurally, steep decline rates could again put upward pressure on oil prices as soon as 2010 or 2011. In particular, if the low oil price/high cost of money environment persists for most of this year and next, our base case scenario for non-OPEC production could prove optimistic, exacerbating the second leg of the commodity super-cycle. If and when the global economy starts to recover, too many dollars chasing too few barrels will only lead to much higher oil prices.
Colin Bennett

Despite solid mining outlook, credit quality cools for Australian miners - 0 views

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    S&P is factoring into its mining sector credit ratings a weakening of demand for mining and metals in Europe and the United States "and concerns that this will have a flow-on effect to other emerging markets."
Panos Kotseras

China - Fabricators may stock less copper due to high prices and tight credit - 0 views

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    It was reported that Chinese fabricators may buy less copper than normal ahead of the Lunar New Year due to high prices and tight credit. According to a trader at a large copper smelter, fabricators pre-holiday purchases have not been as good as in previous years as they are discouraged by high copper prices. With the spot market closed during the holiday period, fabricators usually build stock before in order to fully or partially maintain manufacturing operations. In addition, merchants have not received credit from banks, and therefore this limits their purchasing strength.
Colin Bennett

China credit squeeze puts brakes on factory growth - 0 views

  • Premier Li Keqiang has diverged from the policy of his predecessor by refraining from injecting fresh liquidity into the mainland economy to ease a credit crunch on the interbank market.
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Smelting technology developer grows global footprint - 0 views

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    South African smelting technology developer Tenova Pyromet is increasing its presence around the globe through a growing number of large projects and the continual development and improvement of its technologies. Formerly known as Pyromet, Tenova Pyromet is now part of the multinational Tenova group of industrial companies, with which Tenova Pyromet has the advantage of being closely networked. When Italian holding company Tenova bought Pyromet in September 2006, the company changed its name and acquired the benefit of having Tenova stand surety for the company's credit line. This allowed for growth within Tenova Pyromet at a rate previously unexperienced by the company, owing to the unfreezing of large sums of financial resources.
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U.S. Doubles Wind Power Supply In 2 Years - 0 views

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    U.S. wind industry has raced past the 20,000-megawatt (MW) installed capacity milestone, achieving in two years what had previously taken more than two decades, according to new figures. The 10,000-MW mark was reached in 2006. Wind now provides 20,152 MW of electricity generating capacity in the U.S., producing enough electricity to serve 5.3 million American homes or power a fleet of more than 1 million plug-in hybrid vehicle, according to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA). "Wind energy installations are well ahead of the curve for contributing 20% of the U.S. electric power supply by 2030 as envisioned by the U.S. Department of Energy," said AWEA Executive Director Randall Swisher. "However, the looming expiration of the federal renewable energy production tax credit (PTC) less than four months from now threatens this spectacular progress. The PTC has been a critical factor in wind's very rapid growth as a part of the nation's power portfolio." The PTC is currently set to expire at the end of 2008.
Colin Bennett

Steel outlook becoming negative as growth and demand weaken - 0 views

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    S&P says the credit outlook for Europe's mining and steel sectors is becoming negative, as demand weakens, and economic development in emerging markets slows.
Colin Bennett

The China Factor and what it means for the copper price - 0 views

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    In China, scrap merchants lost so much money in the second half of last year that many are idle; scrap is, therefore, tight in China. Some smelters have also been forced to cut production, led by Jiangxi Copper, who have had a blow-out in their oxygen plant, so we hear, which will take 6-7 months for reparations to be completed. Until 2009, importers had difficulties in opening Letters of Credit; now banks are enabling LCs to be given and opened.
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