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Economic Growth, The Financial Crisis, and Peak Oil For several years, a swelling subculture of commentators (which includes the present author) has been forecasting a financial crash, basing this prognosis on the assessment that global oil production was about to peak. (2) Our reasoning went like this: Continual increases in population and consumption cannot continue forever on a finite planet. This is an axiomatic observation with which everyone familiar with the mathematics of compounded arithmetic growth must agree, even if they hedge their agreement with vague references to "substitutability" and "demographic transitions." (3) This axiomatic limit to growth means that the rapid expansion in both population and per-capita consumption of resources that has occurred over the past century or two must cease at some particular time. But when is this likely to occur? The unfairly maligned Limits to Growth studies, published first in 1972 with periodic updates since, have attempted to answer the question with analysis of resource availability and depletion, and multiple scenarios for future population growth and consumption rates. The most pessimistic scenario in 1972 suggested an end of world economic growth around 2015. (4)

Rohm and Haas Company has reported second quarter 2008 sales of $2,567 million, a 17% increase over the same period in 2007, with Electronic Materials and the chemical businesses outside North America delivering strong growth. The Electronic Materials Group comprises two reportable segments which provide materials for use in applications such as telecommunications, consumer electronics and household appliances. Sales for the Electronic Materials Group were $536 million in the second quarter of 2008, up 34% over the same period in 2007, reflecting the impact of acquisitions in Display Technologies as well as solid organic growth of Electronic Technologies. The Electronic Technologies segment is comprised of the company's Semiconductor Technologies, Circuit Board Technologies and Packaging and Finishing Technologies business units. Sales for the segment of $460 million were up 16% versus the second quarter of 2007, driven by strong growth in Asia for all business units. Sales in the second quarter excluding precious metals pass-through sales were up 15%. Semiconductor Technologies sales grew 13%, reflecting strong demand and favorable currencies, particularly in the Asia Pacific Region. Circuit Board Technologies sales increased 20% as compared to the same period last year, with solid growth in the Asia Pacific Region more than offsetting declines in North America. Packaging and Finishing Technologies sales rose 20% versus last year, primarily driven by strong growth in precious metal sales and in process sales. Adjusted pre-tax earnings for this segment of $107 million were up 11% from the second quarter of 2007, reflecting increased demand and favorable currencies, partially offset by higher metal costs and increased costs related to expansion efforts, including the new Asia Technical Center in Taiwan.\n\n\n

Growth in Asia is illustrated from this reporting at multiple levels of business - Opportunities are available for copper in a multitude of applications.

"The transition to a more decentralised and intelligent energy system will continue in 2017, driven by the continued regulatory support for renewable energy in a number of key markets. The 3 Ds of energy are driving future investment - increased decentralisation, the need to decarbonise electricity generation, and digitisation to boost the sector's operational efficiency and open up new market opportunities. The highest growth rates will be for solar PV, with investment forecast to increase by 11.5% to €141.6 billion in 2017. China continues to be the largest market in terms of revenue investment, but the fastest growth will come from India, which will see double-digit growth in investment to 2020. New business models that incentivise smarter consumption patterns, and the growth of energy storage technologies, will increasingly reduce the need for peak capacity investment in mature energy markets."

ICSG 1 Feb 09 - Based on existing facilities and announced project developments, annual mine production capacity in the period 2009-2013 is expected to grow at an average rate of around 4.3% per year (%/yr) to reach 23.1 Mt in 2013, an increase of around 3.6 Mt (19%) from that in 2009. Of the total increase, copper in concentrate capacity is expected to increase by 2.7Mt (4.3%/yr) to reach 17.9 Mt and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) production by 820,000t (4.4%/yr) to reach 5.2 Mt. Most of the new mine projects and expansions are located in Brazil, Chile, Congo, Mongolia, Peru, the United States and Zambia, which together account for around 2.6 Mt (73%) of the projected mine capacity increase during this period. Annual smelter capacity is projected to grow by an average of 2.6%/yr to reach 20.2 Mt in 2013, an increase of 2 Mt (11%) from that in 2009. Asia will be the leading contributor to growth (1.8 Mt), with expansions and new projects expected mostly in China, but also in India, Indonesia and Iran. Africa is the second leading contributor owing to developments in Zambia. North American smelting capacity will fall by 12% (250kt) due to closures of plants in Canada. The ICSG tabulations indicate that world refinery capacity will reach 26.6 Mt in 2013, an increase of 3.2 Mt (13%) from that in 2009. About 2.3 Mt of the expansion is expected to come from electrolytic refineries and 820,000t from electrowinning capacity. Electrolytic refinery capacity growth is projected to average 3.1%/yr, exceeding the projected growth in smelter capacity, and electrowinning capacity growth (at the refinery level) is expected to average 4.3%/yr. About one half (1.5 Mt) of the world refinery capacity increase during this period is expected to come from electrolytic refineries in China; about 25% (830,000 t) from electrolytic capacity increases in India, Indonesia and Iran; and about 20% (600,000 t) from electrowinning capacity increases in Congo, Peru and Zambia.

Nexans, the large French wire and cable maker, announced on 7th February that its full year operating revenues, at constant non-ferrous metals prices, increased by 6% to EUR4.87B (USD6.60B). However, the company noted that acquisitions were responsible for the increased revenues and organic sales growth was roughly flat compared to 2011. Nexans reported mixed revenue growth by sector, with the group's Industrial Cables unit and the Distributors and Transformers unit showing organic sales growth, whilst the Nexans reported contraction in its Power Transmission and Utilities and Operators businesses. In the Industrial Cables unit, high double-digit growth was noted in the demand automotive wiring harnesses, with the company highlighting its strong position with German autos companies as a decisive factor. The company also noted strong growth in supplying cables to the oil industry and the aeronautical industry. Weak European growth was noted in Nexan's Automation and Capital goods business, as well as in the railways sector, with Nexans noting that they expect railway investment to pick up in China in H2 2013.

A new era for commodities Cheap resources underpinned economic growth for much of the 20th century. The 21st will be different. NOVEMBER 2011 * Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, and Fraser Thompson Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Sustainability & Resource Productivity Practice In This Article Exhibit: In little more than a decade, soaring commodity prices have erased a century of steady declines. About the authors Comments (2) Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, volatile commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past eight years alone, they have undone the decline of the previous century, rising to levels not seen since the early 1900s (exhibit). In addition, volatility is now greater than at any time since the oil-shocked 1970s because commodity prices increasingly move in lockstep. Our analysis suggests that they will remain high and volatile for at least the next 20 years if current trends hold-barring a major macroeconomic shock-as global resource markets oscillate in response to surging global demand and inelastic supplies. Back to top Demand for energy, food, metals, and water should rise inexorably as three billion new middle-class consumers emerge in the next two decades.1 The global car fleet, for example, is expected almost to double, to 1.7 billion, by 2030. In India, we expect calorie intake per person to rise by 20 percent during that period, while per capita meat consumption in China could increase by 60 percent, to 80 kilograms (176 pounds) a year. Demand for urban infrastructure also will soar. China, for example, could annually add floor space totaling 2.5 times the entire residential and commercial square footage of the city of Chicago, while India could add floor space equal to another Chicago every year. Such dramatic growth in demand for commodities actually isn't unusual. Similar factors were at play throughout the 20th century as the planet's population tripled and demand for various resource

"The battery energy storage system (BESS) market is poised to enter a period of dynamic growth on a global level. In the markets for utility-scale grid-connected solutions, commercialisation will begin to accelerate after 2017 with the subsequent years bringing huge opportunities for companies that have the technological capabilities to compete. Rapid growth in variable renewable energy generation and new regulatory policies governing performance criteria for their interconnection with the grid are driving the demand for grid-modernisation, with BESS being a key enabler of growth due to its flexibility and versatility. The period of study is 2014 to 2024."

As the company continues to expand in both established and emerging electronics manufacturing regions, the electronics group of Henkel announced a new partnership to extend its presence in South Africa, signing on PEM Technologies to represent its line of Loctite brand electronics adhesives in the growing South African region.Though it is not often considered a major electronics manufacturing locale, South Africa is, in fact, one of the fastest growing regions for certain sectors within the electronics production market. Automotive, military/aerospace and contract manufacturing are all seeing significant growth rates and Henkel anticipates that this will only continue for the foreseeable future.\n\n"Recently, we have seen major manufacturers in automotive and in military/aerospace either transfer production from Europe to South Africa or set up additional, dedicated South African production sites," comments Richard Boyle, Regional Technical Service Manager for Henkel. "And, growth in the contract manufacturing sector--particularly for telecom, IT and entertainment products--is even more rapid and represents the largest area of expansion for Henkel," Boyle continues. "Establishing a partnership with a strong regional distributor like PEM Technologies is critical to our strategy for growth in this promising region." Steve Eglinton, Managing Director of PEM, is confident the company's relationship with Henkel will only serve to further enable customers' competitiveness. "Without question, Loctite is the leading brand of adhesives for electronics manufacturing and we are very enthusiastic about \nrepresenting Henkel materials throughout South Africa," says Eglinton. "Henkel's philosophy of supporting the customer through top-notch applications expertise, technical service and materials-based productivity enhancing tools is completely in line with PEM's approach. With Henkel's leading materials technologies, we look forward to helping customer

BOSTON (Reuters) - U.S. conglomerate General Electric Co (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Abu Dhabi investment agency Mubadala Development Co said on Tuesday they have entered into an $8 billion joint venture with an initial focus on providing commercial finance in the Middle East and Africa.The two companies also plan to work together in the clean energy and water, aviation, and oil and gas sectors, they said."This partnership is consistent with our global growth initiatives and builds on our long-term relationships in a high-growth region like the Middle East," said Jeff Immelt, chief executive of GE, the second-largest U.S. company by market value.The companies said Mubadala "plans over time" to become one of the Fairfield, Connecticut-based company's ten largest shareholders, by acquiring shares in the open market.They also aim to establish a clean energy technology center in Masdar City, a new city in Abu Dhabi that aims to be carbon neutral. GE plans to commit up to $50 million for Masdar's second clean-tech fund.Growth in the Middle East has been a major thrust for GE in recent years. Last year the company generated $5 billion in revenue in the region, up 50 percent from the prior year.

China's copper consumption will rise in 2009 but growth will slow from 2008, Li Yihuang, president of Jiangxi Copper group, said on Thursday. "I feel this year's copper consumption growth should very closely track the country's gross domestic product growth," Li told reporters in Beijing.

Thomson Reuters, the global news and information agency, conducted a survey of 10 analysts on their impressions of China's copper demand growth outlook. The survey revealed that on average analysts forecast growth of 6.3% y-o-y in 2012; a figure which excludes the purchasing of metal for stockpiling. Expectations of this real demand growth ranged between 4% and 8% y-o-y in 2012, while estimates of apparent demand growth, which includes restocking, ranged from 6% and 12% y-o-y in 2012. Analysts cited fears of weak exports of copper products to the US and Europe amidst their ongoing debt crises, as well as the tight credit environment in China which they expect to limit restocking potential. Previously, analysts had been anticipating growth in the coming year of 7-9% y-o-y.

According to Antaike, a metals research group, China's growth in refined copper consumption is set to slow in the coming year. The group forecasts consumption growth of 6.4% in 2012, compared to expected growth of 8.5% this year and 11.5% growth in 2010. This slowdown in consumption is likely to put downward pressure on copper prices, which have recently fallen to the lowest levels this year on eurozone and US debt concerns. Tight credit as well as struggling automotive sales, fewer new-home start-ups and declining railroad investment were quoted as key contributors to slowing refined copper demand.

"He concludes that standard macroeconomic factors alone (growth, interest rates, global growth, and global financial market volatility) fail to fully explain the recent investment deceleration. He further concludes that while the importance of structural factors in explaining the recent weakening of aggregate investment is not entirely clear, at the micro level, panel data analysis suggests that improving the business environment by reducing costs of doing business, deepening the financial system, and developing infrastructure, could stimulate corporate investment." The IMF's (2013a) recent staff report on India argues that several causes of weaker growth seem to be of a supply-side nature. The following key factors are listed as possible contributors to the recent investment slowdown: Rising policy uncertainty. In particular, high profile tax policy decisions announced in the 2012/13 Budget have reduced foreign investors' interest in India, while the increasing difficulty of obtaining land use and environmental permits have raised regulatory uncertainty for infrastructure and other large-scale projects. Delayed project approvals and implementation. As a reaction to high-profile governance scandals, project approvals, clearances, and implementation have slowed sharply. Supply bottlenecks are particularly pronounced in mining and power, with attendant consequences for the broader economy, especially manufacturing.

"Growth in quarter four was slower than previous quarters, attributed to heightened caution regarding the slowdown in the wider economy. However, the average growth rate for marketing budgets in 2014 was the highest recorded in the survey's 15 year history."

"Due to the impact of the economic slowdown, the market witnessed a decline in the growth rate from 2009. However, the market is set to achieve strong growth rate from 2012 onwards. Capital spending and investments in industries worldwide is expected to boost growth of the market."

The International Copper Promotion Council (ICPC) is expecting Indian demand growth to be cut by almost half, to 8-9 percent this fiscal year, down from an average of 15% over the past two years. Strong industrial growth, residential construction and consumer spending have spurred on demand in Asia's third-largest economy, with copper consumption reaching 512,000t in 2007. However, rising inflation, and the subsequent hike in interest rates, looks set to cool demand growth this year. Industrial growth for June was reported at 5.4%, nearly half what it was in 2007. "The consumption of copper -based appliances in the white goods segment will slow down due to a reduced rate of growth in disposable incomes. This will also be a dampener on copper consumption," said a member of the ICPC in India. Ongoing government investment in power infrastructure and a growing emphasis on more energy-efficient appliances will protect demand, according to the ICPC, "partly cushioning the impact of a moderating economy."

Prysmian Cables & Systems said it expects its Chinese sales volumes to increase by 50% by 2010, an increase which has been aided by the opening of the company's fifth production plant in China. The company's sales increased by 16% year-on-year in 2007 and said that further growth opportunities were linked to the development of new infrastructure for energy and communications. Prysmian's new plant will be based in Tianjin and is expected to have an annual capacity of 10,000tpy including special cables for e.g. rail networks, mining and windfarms.

Prysmian S.p.A has announced its sales results for 2008. Sales amounted to Euro 5,144 million, exhibiting a 4.2% y-o-y organic growth. Adjusted EBITDA reached Euro 542 million, with a sales margin of 10.5% compared to 10.3% in 2007. Adjusted net income was Euro 332 million, up by 11% y-o-y. The group achieved strong performance in its utilities business, which grew by 12.1% y-o-y. This is attributed to positive performance of high voltage underground and submarine cables. The trade and installers business contracted by 5% due to the slowdown in the construction industry. Industrial cables exhibited organic growth of 5% mainly because of positive performance in the oil and gas, and renewable energy sectors.