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Wade Ren

The end of Bretton Woods 2? - 0 views

blogs.cfr.org/...the-end-of-bretton-woods-2

2008-crisis economics

shared by Wade Ren on 29 Oct 08 - Cached
  • The Bretton Woods 2 system – where China and then the oil-exporters provided (subsidized) financing to the US to sustain their exports – will come close to ending, at least temporarily. If the US and Europe are not importing much, the rest of the world won’t be exporting much.
  • And rather than ending with a whimper, Bretton Woods 2 may end with a bang. In some sense Bretton Woods 2 has been on life support for a while now. China’s recent export growth has depended far more on Europe than on the US. US demand for non-oil imports peaked in 2006. One irony of the past year is that the US was borrowing far more from China that it was buying from China. Campaign rhetoric that the US was paying for Saudi oil with funds borrowed from China isn’t far off – though it leaves out the fact that the US also borrows from Saudi Arabia to pay for Venezuelan, Mexican and Nigerian oil.
  • If Bretton Woods 2 ends in 2009 – if US demand for imports falls sharply in the last part of 2008 and early 2009, bringing the US trade deficit down – it won’t have ended in the way Nouriel and I outlined back in late 2004 and early 2005. We postulated that foreign demand for US debt would dry up – pushing up US Treasury rates and delivering a nasty shock to a housing-centric economy. As Brad DeLong notes, it didn’t quite play out that way. The US and European banking system collapsed before the balance of financial terror collapsed. Dr. DeLong writes: All of us from Lawrence Summers to John Taylor were expecting a very different financial crisis. We were expecting the ‘Balance of Financial Terror’ between Asia and America to collapse and produce chaos. We are not having that financial crisis. Instead we are having a very different financial crisis. Catastrophic failures of risk management throughout the entire banking sector caused a relatively minor collapse in housing prices to freeze up global finance to a degree that has not been seen since the Great Depression. The end result of this crisis though could be rather similar: a sharp contraction in credit, a fall in US economic activity, a fall in US imports and a fall in the amount of foreign financing the US needs.* The US government is (possibly) trying to offset the fall in private demand by borrowing more and spending more — but as of now there is realistic risk that the fall in private activity will trump the fiscal stimulus.
  • ...11 more annotations...
  • Or, to put it more succinctly, Bretton Woods 2, as it evolved, hinged both on the willingness of foreign central banks to take the currency risk associated with lending to the US at low rates in dollars despite the United States large current account deficit AND the willingness of private financial intermediaries to take the credit risk associated with lending at low rates to highly-indebted US households.
  • But now US financial institutions are neither willing nor able to take on the risk of lending even more to US households. For a while the US government was able to ramp up its lending to households (notably through the Agencies) and in the process effectively take over the function previously performed by the private financial system (over the last four quarters, the flow of funds data indicates that the Agencies provided around $800 billion of net credit to US households). But now the US government is struggling to keep the financial system from collapsing. It doesn’t seem like it will able to avoid a sharp fall in the overall availability of credit.
  • It is now clear how the financial sector kept profits up: it took on more risk, as it shifted from borrowing short to buy safe long-term assets (Treasuries and Agencies) to borrowing short to buy risky long-term assets. Leverage in the system also increased (and for some broker dealers that seems to be an understatement), as more and more financial institutions believed that the US had entered into an era of little macroeconomic or financial volatility. The net result seems to have been a truly explosive concentration of risk in the hands of a core set of financial intermediaries in the US and Europe. Securitization – it seems – actually didn’t disperse risk into the hands of institutions able to handle it.
  • I hope that the process of adjustment now underway isn’t as sharp as I fear. The US economy gradually can shift from producing MBS for sale to US investors flush with cash from the sale of safe securities to China and Saudi Arabia to producing goods and services for export – but it cannot shift from churning out complex debt securities to producing goods and services overnight. Indeed, in a slowing US and global economy, improvements in the US deficit will likely come from faster falls in US imports than in US exports – not from ongoing growth in US exports.
  • But right now it looks like there is a real risk that the adjustment won’t be gradual. And it certainly looks like the flow of Chinese (and Gulf) savings to US households over the past few years has produced one of the largest misallocations of global capital in recent history.
  • US taxpayers are going to be hit with a large tab for the credit risk taken on by undercapitalized financial intermediaries. Chinese taxpayers may get hit with a similar tab for the losses their central bank incurred by overpaying for US and European assets as part of its policy of holding its exchange rate down. The TARP is around 5% of US GDP. There are plausible estimates that China’s currency losses will prove to be of comparable magnitude. Charles Dumas puts the cost at above 5% of GDP: “Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research estimates that China makes 1-2 per cent on its (largely) dollar reserves. It then loses up to 10 per cent on the exchange rate and suffers a Chinese inflation rate of 6 per cent for a total real return in renminbi of about minus 15 per cent. That is a loss of $270bn a year, or a stunning 7-8 per cent of gross domestic product.”
  • Jboss — if some of the Chinese inflow could be redirected into investment in alternative energy, that would indeed be a win/ win. Some infrastructure bank style ideas have promise in my view — basically, the flow that used to go to freddie/ fannie could go to wind farms and the like. I would rather see more adjustment in china (i.e. more investment in Chinese infrastructure) but during the transition, if there is one, to a lower Chinese surplus, redirecting chinese financing toward new energy tech would be offer real benefits.
  • China likes 3rd generation nuclear power. Safe, lower cost than NG or coal, very much lower cost than coal with carbon sequestering, and zero carbon footprint. Wind is about 4X more expensive than our electric costs now. That’s in an area with consistent wind. Solar is worse. I don’t know if we can sucker them into investing in our technical fairy tales. Here’s a easy primer on 3rd gen nukes. http://nuclearinfo.net/Nuclearpower/WebHomeCostOfNuclearPower
    • Wade Ren
      Wade Ren on 29 Oct 08
       
      is this true?
  • btw, solar thermal installations are so easy & affordable to retrofit onto existing structures, it’s amazing that there aren’t more of them here…until you realize that they work to decentralize energy. cedric — china is already doing it in china. they are way ahead of the curve over there. my partner brought back some photos of shanghai — rows of middle class homes each with a small solar panel on top. and that’s just the tip of the iceberg — an architect friend just came back from beijing and wants to move to china (he’s into designing self-powering structures and is incredibly frustrated by the bureaucracy and cost-prohibitive measures in the US).
  • I went to engineering school right after the Arab Oil Embargo, and alternative energy was a hot topic then. All the same stuff you hear of nowadays. They even offered entire courses on it , which I took. Then my first mini career was in the power plant biz, before Volker killed it with interest rates and the Saudies killed any interest in alt. energy with their big oil field discovery. For the last 5 years I’ve been researching what’s changed, and it is frighteningly little. Solar cells are still expensive and only have a 15% conversion efficiency. They developed the new cost reduced film technology, but that knocks down efficiency to 7%. Wind power works where there is wind constantly. Generators are mature technology and are already 90 some percent efficient. Geothermal, tidal, ect. work where they are available. Looks like coal gasification and synfuel is out because it makes too much CO2. Good news is 3rd gen nuclear is way better than 1st gen plants. Hybrid cars are good, and battery technology is finally getting barely good enough for all electric cars to be practical.
  • According to news report today, Japan’s trade surplus is less than 1 billion $ in September 08, a whopping 94% decrease compared to September 07. Does it imply that going forward Japan can not buy as much treasury as before?
Colin Bennett

Market Analysis of Aluminum Alloy Cable Industry in China 2015-2020 - 2 views

wiseguyreports.com/...le-industry-in-china-2015-2020

trends copper China aluminum alloy cable

shared by Colin Bennett on 23 Jul 15 - No Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 23 Jul 15
     
    "By far, the replacement rate of copper with aluminum alloy and Aldrey alloy is up to 70% to 75%. In contrast, that of China is only 3% to 5%. In 2014, the aluminum alloy cable value is near RMB130 billion. In the global market, aluminum alloy cable is a common product for electric transmission line. With new energy gaining more popularity in China, the application of aluminum alloy will become wider and wider. In this report, ASKCI will further disclose market potential and commercial opportunities for aluminum alloy cable industry in China. Recommendations will be given at the end of the report to describe the prospect and provide suggestions for strategy making."
Colin Bennett

Strong copper, steel and iron ore data from China - are they sustainable? - 0 views

www.mineweb.com/...page36

trends copper China

shared by Colin Bennett on 16 Mar 09 - Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 16 Mar 09
     
    The world's metals producers are still looking to China as the panacea for all ills with the often expressed hope that the country's need to support the domestic metals smelting, refining and steel industries will be the saviour of this sector and supply sufficient demand to support prices in the West. Consequently Chinese data are followed intensely and the latest information suggests that copper, iron ore and steel demand are holding up well - indeed increasing substantially - while aluminium is flat and zinc and lead suffering. But Chinese data requires interpretation and can be misleading as pointed out by Macquarie's Bonnie Liu in her latest China Commodities Weekly research note, and she concludes that there has to be some doubt that the latest extremely strong figures can be maintained. The notes below are abstracted from Macquarie's latest China Commodities Weekly and give us some considerable food for thought.
xxx xxx

Copper slumps to 5-week low on weak Chinese demand - 0 views

news.moneycentral.msn.com/...providerarticle.aspx

china copper

shared by xxx xxx on 25 Jul 08 - Cached
  • Copper prices tumbled to a five-week low Thursday on expectations that falling demand from China and a slowdown in the U.S. housing market will lead to a surplus of the metal. Other commodities traded mixed, with crude oil rebounding slightly and gold, silver and soybeans falling. Corn and wheat futures rose. China, the world's biggest buyer of copper, has been importing less of the metal since the completion of most major construction projects heading into the Beijing summer Olympics. Copper imports in June fell 20 percent compared to May, China's custom's agency said this month. As a result, stockpiles of the metal have swelled in Shanghai and London, helping drive down prices.
  • xxx xxx on 25 Jul 08
     
    Copper prices tumbled to a five-week low Thursday on expectations that falling demand from China and a slowdown in the U.S. housing market will lead to a surplus of the metal. Other commodities traded mixed, with crude oil rebounding slightly and gold, silver and soybeans falling. Corn and wheat futures rose. China, the world's biggest buyer of copper, has been importing less of the metal since the completion of most major construction projects heading into the Beijing summer Olympics. Copper imports in June fell 20 percent compared to May, China's custom's agency said this month. As a result, stockpiles of the metal have swelled in Shanghai and London, helping drive down prices.
xxx xxx

Aluminum hits all-time record highs despite weak demand - 0 views

www.platts.com/...index.xml

aluminum china

shared by xxx xxx on 22 Jul 08 - Cached
  • xxx xxx on 22 Jul 08
     
    Aluminum may have been responding to two different events in the week ending July 11 when it hit a succession of all-time price highs , but the market remains divided over the medium-term direction, given that world fundamentals point to weak demand and rising stock levels. \n\nFundamentally, however, analysts and market players were mixed in their impressions of whether the price could be sustained, especially as word emerged from China that the cuts may not be a certainty. \n\nAluminum finished floor trade for the week at $3,318/mt, up $150 from the July 4 closing price of $3,168. Fundamentally, however, analysts and market players were mixed in their impressions of whether the price could be sustained, especially as word emerged from China that the cuts may not be a certainty. \n\nPointed out a US broker, "When you hear producers [in China] are shutting production because demand is weak, that's normally bearish," yet the market saw "insane" price moves. "I hear metal just continues to pour into warehouses, and not all of it reported, obviously, [since] otherwise you'd see it in the stock numbers. A lot is going off warrant," he pointed out. \n\n\n
Colin Bennett

China Has Stopped Stockpiling Metals - 0 views

www.contrarianprofits.com/...18614

trends copper china

shared by Colin Bennett on 02 Jul 09 - Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 02 Jul 09
     
    China has stopped stockpiling metals, according to reports in the Chinese media. Will this put the cap on the recent strength in base metals prices? The AFP reports that, "China has been building its inventories of metals, including 235,000 tonnes of copper, over recent months, Caijing magazine reported on its website over the weekend, citing Yu Dongming, an official with the state economic planner."
Matthew Wonnacott

Jiangxi copper: China to remain the global driver of copper demand - 0 views

www.menafn.com/...ears--Jiangxi-Copper-Executive

trends China Copper

shared by Matthew Wonnacott on 29 Nov 12 - No Cached
  • Matthew Wonnacott on 29 Nov 12
     
    Speaking at an industry conference on 29th November, Wu Yuneng, the deputy general manager of China's largest integrated copper producer Jiangxi Copper, said that he expects China to continue to drive the global demand for copper in the coming years. Mr Wu cited the fact that urbanisation rates remain below the 60% levels seen in developed markets as the reason for his view. He also said that he believes copper demand in China has a lot of room to rise in the next ten years, stating that copper consumption in China is around 5.7kg per head which is well below the developed market average of 10kg per person.
Piotr Ortonowski

China - March copper imports grow 51.9% y-o-y - 1 views

uk.reuters.com/...modities-idUKL3E8FA3AX20120410

copper China trends

shared by Piotr Ortonowski on 12 Apr 12 - No Cached
  • Piotr Ortonowski on 12 Apr 12
     
    Preliminary data from China Customs indicates that imports of copper (comprised of blister, cathode, alloys and semis) to China reached 462,182t in March 2012. This represents a 4.6% fall from 484,569t in February 2012, but a 51.9% increase from 304,299t in March 2011. Q1 2012 imports of copper to China reached 1,360,715t, up 50.5% from 904,002t in Q1 last year. Meanwhile, imports of copper scrap in March 2012 totalled 430,000t, up 7.5% m-o-m and up 10.3% y-o-y, taking Q1 copper scrap imports to 1,060,000t, a 6.4% y-o-y rise.
Colin Bennett

China, South Korea, United States and Europe making big bets on mass produced graphene - 1 views

nextbigfuture.com/...h-korea-united-states-and.html

trends copper graphene

shared by Colin Bennett on 29 Jan 14 - No Cached
  • China has started mass production of graphene films used in production of cell phone and computer touch screens as a new production line began operation. The production line is in a graphene industrial park in southwest China's Chongqing Municipality. It can produce tens of millions of graphene films every year.
  • Colin Bennett on 29 Jan 14
     
    "China has started mass production of graphene films used in production of cell phone and computer touch screens as a new production line began operation. The production line is in a graphene industrial park in southwest China's Chongqing Municipality. It can produce tens of millions of graphene films every year."
Colin Bennett

China Launches Pilot Applications of Rare Earth High Fe Aluminum Alloy Cable - 0 views

www.metal.com/...h-high-fe-aluminum-alloy-cable

trends copper substitution

shared by Colin Bennett on 11 Jun 15 - No Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 11 Jun 15
     
    "SHANGHAI, Jun. 4 (SMM) - China has launched pilot applications of rare earth high-Fe aluminum alloy cable in Fujian Province, local media reported. Rare earth high-Fe aluminum alloy cable, self developed by China, has broken US monopoly over the past more than 40 years. "
Colin Bennett

China seeks bigger deals and new sectors in Africa acquisition spree - 0 views

www.ft.com/...97-11dd-b354-000077b07658.html

china mining power trends

shared by Colin Bennett on 31 Jul 08 - Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 31 Jul 08
     
    High-level groups of bankers from Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Standard Bank, respectively China and Africa's biggest banks, are examining potential targets in Africa's oil and gas, telecoms, base metals and power sectors, executives at the Johannesburg-based lender have told the Financial Times
Colin Bennett

China reverting to form as the world's workshop - 0 views

www.ft.com/...3a-11dd-808f-0000779fd18c.html

china manufacturing trends

shared by Colin Bennett on 12 Aug 08 - Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 12 Aug 08
     
    China is set to overtake the US next year as the world's largest producer of manufactured goods, four years earlier than expected, as a result of the rapidly weakening US economy. The great leap is revealed in forecasts for the Financial Times by Global Insight, a US economics consultancy. According to the estimates, next year China will account for 17 per cent of manufacturing value-added output of $11,783bn (£6,130bn) and the US will make 16 per cent.
Colin Bennett

The China Factor and what it means for the copper price - 0 views

www.mineweb.com/...page36

trends copper china

shared by Colin Bennett on 14 Jan 09 - Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 14 Jan 09
     
    In China, scrap merchants lost so much money in the second half of last year that many are idle; scrap is, therefore, tight in China. Some smelters have also been forced to cut production, led by Jiangxi Copper, who have had a blow-out in their oxygen plant, so we hear, which will take 6-7 months for reparations to be completed. Until 2009, importers had difficulties in opening Letters of Credit; now banks are enabling LCs to be given and opened.
Colin Bennett

China says it has discarded plan to buy copper for state reserves - 0 views

www.chinapost.com.tw/...China%2Dto.htm

trends copper china

shared by Colin Bennett on 13 Jan 09 - Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 13 Jan 09
     
    BEIJING -- China, the world's largest metal consumer, discarded a plan to buy copper to support domestic smelters because producers are still profitable and inventories aren't high, government and company officials said.
Panos Kotseras

China - Copper demand may grow strongly in Q4 - 0 views

www.bloomberg.com/...news

China copper demand

shared by Panos Kotseras on 05 Jun 09 - Cached
  • Panos Kotseras on 05 Jun 09
     
    According to a statement made by JP Morgan Securities, copper demand in China may experience strong growth in Q4. This argument is based on the fact that the large amount of accumulated copper inventories in China will be processed. As a result, copper stockpiles will run down. The forecast projected an annual growth in Chinese copper demand of 7-8% for 2009, backed by robust demand in power infrastructure. Chinese copper imports in April reached 400,000t, an increase of 7% compared with March.
Susanna Keung

China - Boost for copper as China plans auto and home appliance stimulus - 0 views

www.mydigitalfc.com/...sidies-cars-and-appliances-531

china copper auto appliance stimulus

shared by Susanna Keung on 22 May 09 - Cached
  • Susanna Keung on 22 May 09
     
    The Chinese government said that it would expand an existing subsidy program to encourage the purchase of new vehicles and home appliances, thereby boosting domestic spending. China will now allocate 5B yuan ($733M) for owners of light trucks and passenger vans who upgrade to new models. It also plans to spend 2B yuan ($293M) to fund discounts of new purchases of home appliances when customers turn in old goods, which will possibly give support to domestic copper demand. The plan will apply to almost all household appliances, including air-conditioners, television sets, refrigerators, washing machines and computers. Exports of these have been weak and the plan will help local producers to de-stock more quickly.
Colin Bennett

China transmission cable growth - 0 views

alanu6.blogspot.com/...hu-cable.html

trends copper China Hu An transmission

shared by Colin Bennett on 14 Jan 11 - No Cached
  • PM Wen Jiabao reaffirms China’s commitment to upgrading its power grids in the rural regions during the China State Council board meeting held on 5 Jan 2011. This comes on the back of an increase in electricity consumption in rural areas, following the implementation of China’s rural home appliance subsidy program. Many places are still suffering from an inadequate supply of power grid infrastructure…ben_oh : …Hu An is poised to benefit from China’s estimated Rmb200b invmt in its rural power grids btwn 2010-12, of which two-thirds will be spent on power transmission eqpt such as power wires and cables, transformers, wire poles and towers. In particular, China is expected to shift its focus from main power grids (220-750 KV) to the ultra high voltage power grids (800-1000 KV) and rural/ urban distribution power grids (<110KV)…
  • Hu An Cable: PM Wen Jiabao reaffirms China’s commitment to upgrading its power grids in the rural regions during the China State Council board meeting held on 5 Jan 2011. This comes on the back of an increase in electricity consumption in rural areas, following the implementation of China’s rural home appliance subsidy program. Many places are still suffering from an inadequate supply of power grid infrastructure…ben_oh : …Hu An is poised to benefit from China’s estimated Rmb200b invmt in its rural power grids btwn 2010-12, of which two-thirds will be spent on power transmission eqpt such as power wires and cables, transformers, wire poles and towers. In particular, China is expected to shift its focus from main power grids (220-750 KV) to the ultra high voltage power grids (800-1000 KV) and rural/ urban distribution power grids (<110KV)…
Colin Bennett

China builds first 330 mile high speed rail segment for Turkey, As Turkey and other cou... - 0 views

nextbigfuture.com/...first-330-mile-high-speed.html

trends copper infrastructure

shared by Colin Bennett on 30 Jul 14 - No Cached
  • China is also planning to build trillions of dollars of infrastructure for the entire world over the next few decades.
  • Colin Bennett on 30 Jul 14
     
    " China is also planning to build trillions of dollars of infrastructure for the entire world over the next few decades."
Colin Bennett

China largest producer and consumer of plastic pipes - 0 views

www.researchinchina.com/...7939.html

trends copper China tube substitution

shared by Colin Bennett on 02 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 02 Mar 15
     
    "China has become the world's largest producer and consumer of plastic pipes. In 2013, China's plastic pipe output and demand reached 12.1 million tons and 11.117 million tons respectively, representing the respective year-on-year increase of 10.0% and 7.1%. The output of PVC pipes is higher than that of other plastic pipe varieties in China, followed by the output of PE pipes and PP pipes. In 2013, China's PVC pipe output hit 6.59 million tons, accounting for 54.5% of China's total plastic pipe output, while the output of PE pipes and PP pipes shared 40.5% together. "
Colin Bennett

China: Overborrowed and overbuilt - 0 views

www.ft.com/...ed-11e4-9c06-00144feab7de.html

trends copper China economy

shared by Colin Bennett on 30 Jan 15 - No Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 30 Jan 15
     
    "China has regained its title as the world's biggest economy, overtaking the US in purchasing power terms for the first time in 125 years, but this growing suburb provides a stark example of the mounting problems the country faces. The restoration of its pre-eminent position comes just as China steps into the so-called "middle-income trap" and as serious stresses built up over the past few years threaten to come to a head."
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