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Top Trends for 2009: On our GloboTrends wiki homepage, we will keep an updated list of global macro trends that we think are the most important to keep an eye on. Some of this list are statistically unlikely to occur, but if they did, it could cause global disruption. These unlikely events were dubbed Black Swan's in a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb , or might be called the "fat tail" probability in statistics. Others trends we are watching in the GloboTrends wiki are currently ongoing right now (such as our coverage of the credit crisis, deleveraging, margin calls, etc), and we will talk about how they happened, and predict their likely outcome. The format of a wiki makes the document dynamic, so any of our community is welcome to help shape our views of these important developments. Please log in to our wiki, and feel free to comment... In no particular order, here are the global macro trends that we think will be most significant in the coming year (2009): 1. credit crisis of 2007/08 will continue on into 2009...this one is clear...but, how long will it last? how will it fundamentally change international finance? Add your comments to our wiki... 2. fiscal stimulus and crisis recovery 2009 3. deleveraging of Financial markets will continue. In my opinion, this is the most destructive of all the trends. 4. Risk of deflation in the US as Fed Funds target rate approaches zero (other analysts see the opposite risk of potential hyper inflation). Add your comments.. 5. more... add to this list.. Predictions-for-2009

Wieland-Werke AG, the German fabricator of brass mill products, reported sales of 475,000t, down by 0.4% y-o-y in financial year 2010/2011. Turnover increased by 24% y-o-y to reach €3,287M and profits also rose to €45M in 2010/2011 after a loss of €6M in the previous year. The rise in turnover was mainly attributed to rising metals prices, while the company said that the increase in profits was caused by a product mix composed of a larger amount of value-added products. Wieland noted strong demand in the first six months of the period, which was offset by the Euro debt-crisis as a driver of significantly weaker demand in Europe during the latter half of the fiscal year. In addition, the company saw a fall in demand in Asia from Spring 2011 and continued very low demand in North America. End-use consumer demand was weak and impacted the electronics and electrical engineering sectors as well as vehicle production. Mechanical engineering was considered to be a bright spot in fiscal year 2010/2011.

Wieland-Werke AG, the German fabricator of brass mill products, stated that demand in 2012 began weakly. After January, orders rose only slightly, but demand from important markets in Asia and Europe declined, principally attributed to cautious buying as fears remained over the impact of the course of the euro debt crisis in 2012. In addition, the company is experiencing reduced demand from the electronics industry in Asia following the closure of several plants affected by the tsunami in Japan and flooding in Thailand. Wieland has also not seen any growth support from North America and is uncertain about the global outlook for demand in 2012 due to the unpredictability of the euro debt crisis.

Italian fabricator, Eredi Gnutti Metalli, said in an interview with Reuters that it foresees a slight recovery in brass rod output and further decline in rolled products for the construction sector, which has remained weak. The company plans to produce 110,000 tonnes of brass rod in the current fiscal year (2010/11), compared to 100,000 tonnes a year ago. So far its orders have been driven by restocking activity and it expects industrial demand to return to pre-crisis levels in 3 to 4 years without major shocks in the economy. The company's copper cathode purchase has been cut by 25% from pre-crisis level to around 12,000 tonnes to 14,000 tonnes a year.

As the economy attempts to take off from the current position, the power sector holds the key to support rapid economic growth in the currently power starved country. This is likely to create significant investment opportunities in the power sector. Currently, there exists a major power crisis in the country. The scope to bridge the impending power demand-supply gap offers huge investment opportunities for both the multinational and domestic companies across the power industry value chain from generation to transmission and distribution and in distributed power generation including power rental sector

Like Inca Pacific, Southern Copper Corp, Candente Resources, Strike Resources Ltd and Newmont Mining Corp (NEM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) have complained of having to reexamine or delay their projects in Peru because of the global crisis. Southern Copper has said plans for its Los Chancas would be evaluated, and that it may consider dipping into dividends for project funding.

I believe this assumption is basically incorrect. The current financial crisis is a direct result of peak oil. There may be oscillations in the economic situation, but generally, we can't expect things to get much better. In fact, there is a very distinct possibility that things may get very much worse in the next few years. In this post, I will put together some of the pieces I see. This post is based on a presentation, so includes more than the usual amount of graphics. The post repeats many things I have said before, but I wanted to bring more of the pieces together into more of an overview article. This is a link to a PDF version of the presentation. This is a link to the Powerpoint version.

The growth of the wire and cable industry in Bangladesh has been hit by the economic crisis. The two major local consumers in the industry are the power sector and industrial units. Poly Cables, said that they currently face a shortage of adequate buyers and reported a 60% y-o-y plunge in sales in the period January-April. Paradise Cables said that they are still performing well in the power cable business as they hold some supply contracts. However, the company is concerned about the global and domestic gloomy economic environment. Since independence, Bangladesh has invested in connecting outreach areas. As a result, industrial and power sector cables have contributed considerably to the growth of local cable manufacturers.

24/06/2009 - The slowdown in OECD economies is reaching the bottom following the deepest decline for more than 60 years, says the OECD's latest Economic Outlook. But recovery is likely to be weak and fragile, and the economic and social damage caused by the crisis will be long-lasting.

""What is happening now is not related to supply-demand in copper - it's more related to the economic crisis in Europe," Mr Hernández told the Financial Times in a video interview on the sidelines of LME week, the largest annual gathering of the metal and mining industry."

* Momentum strengthened in the latter half of 2013, and should strengthen further in 2014-largely due to improvements in the advanced economies. * Yet, global growth is still stuck in low gear. It remains below its potential, which we think is somewhere around 4 percent. * Even for the advanced economies, however, the outlook is still subject to significant risks. With inflation running below many central banks' targets, we see rising risks of deflation, which could prove disastrous for the recovery. * During the years of crisis, we have relied on the emerging markets to keep the global economy afloat. Together with the developing countries, they accounted for three-quarters of global growth over the past half decade. However, a growing number of emerging markets are slowing down as the economic cycle turns.

it is my professional responsibility - both to myself and to those I serve - to begin speculating how the current crisis may affect the realm of clean energy.

Mueller Industries, Inc. has announced its sales results for 2008. Net income in 2008 amounted to US$ 80.8 million, compared with US$ 115.5 million realised in 2007. Net income in Q4 2008 reached US$ 7.8 million compared to US$ 28.8 million in the same period in 2007. The company attributed the sharp contraction in its Q4 income mainly to weak shipments and the lower average cost of copper. The plumbing and refrigeration segment has been hit by slowing demand and higher per unit conversion costs on lower production volumes. In addition, European copper tube activities were interrupted for approximately four weeks due to a fire. In response to the ongoing economic crisis, the company's strategy for 2009 is to readjust operations and reduce costs.

SYDNEY, Australia (AP) - Mining giant BHP Billiton announced plans Wednesday to slash 6,000 jobs, or about 6 percent of its global work force, as it rushes to cope with plummeting demand because of the global financial crisis.