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Dozens of reformist political leaders were arrested on Saturday night in Iran

Also arrested were Mohsen Mirdamadi, leader of the Iran Islamic Participation Front, the largest reformist party; Zahra Mojaradi, his wife; Saeed Shariati, a member of the party; Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, spokesman in the previous reformist government; and Ahmad Zaidabadi, a senior reformist journalist.Mostafa Tajzadeh and Behzad Nabavi of the Islamic Revolution Mojahedin Organisation, another reformist party, were also taken into custody.

Also arrested were Mohsen Mirdamadi, leader of the Iran Islamic Participation Front, the largest reformist party; Zahra Mojaradi, his wife; Saeed Shariati, a member of the party; Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, spokesman in the previous reformist government; and Ahmad Zaidabadi, a senior reformist journalist.

Foreign capital is fleeing to Dubai, and Tehran’s stock market has fallen by twenty per cent since May. Curiously, Ayatollah Khamenei issued an edict in October that gave sweeping new powers to Rafsanjani, who runs a government body known as the Expediency Council—a move widely seen as an effort to rein in Ahmadinejad. The new President, in other words, may be too hard-line for even the Supreme Leader.

The morning after Iran's June 12 presidential election, Iranians booted up their computers to find Fars News, the online mouthpiece of the Islamic Republic's security apparatus, heralding the dawn of a "third revolution." Many an ordinary Iranian, and many a Western pundit, had already adopted such dramatic language to describe the burgeoning street demonstrations against the declaration by the Ministry of Interior that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the sitting president, had received 64 percent of the vote to 34 percent for his main challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi. But the editors of Fars News were referring neither to the protests, as were the people in the streets, nor to the prospect that the unrest might topple the Islamic Republic, as were some of the more wistful commentators. Rather, the editors were labeling the radical realignment of Iranian politics that they wish for. This realignment would complete the removal of the old guard, as did the "first" revolution of 1978-1979, and consolidate the rule of inflexible hardliners, as did the "second revolution" symbolized by the US Embassy takeover of 1979.

The number of deeply conservative voters, of the sort who back Ahmadinejad, has not exceeded 12 percent of the electorate since 1993. True, in 2003, these voters seized control of the city councils of major cities, not because of a surge in the popularity of their agenda, but because of the widespread abstention of those who had lost hope in the effectiveness of reformist candidates.

But instead greater mass participation in the local elections of 2007 cost the hardliners their grip upon local councils. In Tehran, Ahmadinejad's men lost two thirds of their seats and had to share power with reformists and moderate conservatives.

"Durability of order and continuation of the country's progress hinge on restoring public trust," Khatami, a popular reformist, said, according to the Web sites. "From the start, we said there is a legal way to regain that trust. I openly say now that the solution to get out of the current crisis is holding a referendum."

Under Iran's constitution, a referendum has to be ordered by Khamenei himself. All popular votes in Iran are monitored by an oversight body called the Guardian Council. Khatami, however, proposed that a neutral body, such as the Expediency Council, should monitor the proposed referendum instead.

Karroubi was certainly not the first senior figure to protest Mojtaba Khamenei’s intervention on behalf of the extreme right. Before him, Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri, another former Speaker of the Majles and a close aid to Ayatollah Khamenei, had quietly protested the younger Khamenei’s meddling in the political process. (Nategh Nouri, a mid-rank cleric, heads the Supreme Leader’s Office of Inspection)

In the last year before the 1979 Revolution, Ayatollah Khamenei and two other clerics, Abbas Vaez Tabasi and Sayyed Abdolkarim Hasheminejad, formed a sort of leadership ring that led most of the demonstrations and political activities against the Shah in Mashhad and the Khorasan province, which was Iran’s largest province at that time.

Vaez Tabasi is now a powerful cleric who runs the shrine of Imam Reza (the Shiites’ 8th Imam), in Mashhad. He is believed to be a Rafsanjani ally.

The harsh responses and treatment that intelligence and judiciary officials of the Islamic ‎Republic of Iran have embarked against a group of political and social activists who have ‎been promoting the idea of international monitoring of Iran’s forthcoming presidential ‎elections on June 12, 2009, indicate that they view this issue to be a red line not to be ‎crossed, and if done would not be tolerated. ‎

intelligence-judiciary agents to prevent a regular meeting of ‎the members of the Committee for Free, Healthy, and Fair Elections

ayatollah Khamenei, the leader of Iran, has directly engaged ‎himself in the issue by barring, through harsh and threatening language, presidential ‎candidates and their supporters from questioning the integrity of the elections.

As of this writing, there are at least half a dozen campaign headquarters that are currently semi-active or not active at all but are all awaiting the go-ahead from their would-be conservative candidates. Amongst them are those of the current mayor of Tehran, one that belongs to a former foreign minister, one belonging to a current cabinet minister, one to a recently fired minister and one to the former head of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rezaii. 

who has been one of the most trenchant critics of Ahmadinejad government from the right flank. A few months ago, he put forth the idea of an inclusive coalition government, one that would encompass many of the moderates and a few of the radicals. The

, that Ahmadinejad's re-election is a foregone conclusion

we have not put any development project on hold. We decide on a project and push for its completion.

Shora-Yaari, or assisting councils.

We have divided Tehran into 380 neighbourhoods with defined geography. People have elected their representatives to these councils to take over some development work. The work might be small-scale but is important. This helps people take part [in the city’s development] from their doorstep.

I think that both Mr. [Mehdi] Karroubi and Mr. [Mohammad] Khatami, when he was running, and the new entrant, Mr. [Mir-Hossein] Mussavi, have not been very specific about what is wrong with the economy and how they would fix it. When asked by an interviewer, Mr. Mussavi singled out the dismantling of the Management and Planning Organization as the major problem. But it is way down on the list of problems that I would consider serious.

Mr Mousavi applied to authorities for his own newspaper licence after his self-nomination in March, but he has yet not been awarded one.

At 25 rials (one fils) per copy, Andishe Nou costs much less than the cheapest newspaper in circulation. State-sponsored papers cost about 500 rials while privately produced publications can cost up to 5,000 rials.

Despite his new methods, Mr Mousavi’s campaign mainly relies on support from ordinary individuals and does not have a big campaign operation.

After delivering his landmark sermon last Friday, Rafsanjani left for the city of Mashhad to consult with senior clerics there, particularly ayatollah Vaeze Tabasi (the head of the memorial of the Shiite’s eight saint in that city) and other clerics such as Safi Golpaygani and Makarem Shirazi (both of whom are on a visit to the city) about the post election crises that has erupted in Iran. Among those who came to welcome Rafsanjani in Mashhad were Mohammad Javad Mohammadizadeh, the governor of Khorasan province, ayatollah Elm-alhoda, the Friday prayer leader of Mashhad, seyed Ahmad Alavi, the deputy of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Ghods

It should be noted that in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s latest trip to <st1:place w:st="on">Mashhad</st1:place> recently, senior cleric Vaez Tabasi notably refrained from welcoming him.

In a related news, reformist website Moje Azadi (Wave of Freedom) wrote that ayatollah Khamenei plans to meet with a number of senior clerics in Qom (including ayatollah Javadi Amoli and ayatollah Amini, both Friday prayer leaders of Qom). It is said that he will be talking about his support of Ahmadinejad and discussing options for a political solution to resolve the current crises, among other topics.

Ahmad Khatami, a hardline cleric who strongly backed Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s “landslide” victory, has called on the president to reverse his decision.Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi, one of the most influential religious leaders, on Wednesday joined the calls when he said in a religious decree that anyone who had said Iran was “a friend of [the] Israeli people” would “surely lack legitimacy” and such an appointment should be “corrected as soon as possible”.Fundamentalist parliamentarians have threatened the government with a vote of no confidence on other appointments unless Mr Mashaei steps aside.

Reformist papers have said that the premature appointment of a controversial figure before the government had been fully sworn in was a tactical move by the president to distract attention from the post-election protests

After four years in office, Ahmadinejad has filled the Interior Ministry with cronies, many of whom have connections to the Revolutionary Guards. A source who participated in closed Interior Ministry planning sessions, speaking on condition of anonymity to EurasiaNet, says top ministry personnel openly stated during one session that a repeat of the 1997 election, in which the reformist candidate, Mohammad Khatami, scored an upset victory, would not be tolerated on June 12.

By the numbers, it would seem that the country’s vast election apparatus has the ability to guarantee a favorable outcome for Ahmadinejad. According to Kamran Daneshjoo, the Interior Ministry official responsible for overseeing the voting, there are 385,000 citizens who will be administering voting precincts. The Guardian Council is expected to deploy another 340,000 people to monitor the balloting. In addition, there will be hundreds of thousands of security personnel deployed on election day. Overall, the country has about 57 million citizens of voting age, meaning that roughly 1 in 60 Iranians of voting age will be involved in some aspect of conducting the election.

For one, they note that over 59 million ballots have been printed, far more than the number of registered voters

hundreds of activists, journalists and intellectuals

concerted campaign to link the protests with foreign intervention

With the exception of Yazdi, the arrests appeared to bypass political leaders and focus on their lieutenants.

On Monday, June 15, in what may have appeared as a slight softening of his initial enthusiastic response to the official results of the presidential election, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, called for a “careful” evaluation of complaints submitted by reformist challenger Mir Hussein Mousavi to the Guardian Council.  Subsequently, on Tuesday, the Speaker of the Council, after meeting with representatives of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s opponents, announced the Council’s readiness to conduct a recount of votes from any and all disputed voting districts.

“I have written a letter to the Guardian Council and described the various irregularities,” he announced, “even though I have no hope in the Council. Many of its [twelve] members did not preserve their neutrality during the election process and openly supported the incumbent candidate.” Mousavi’s proposed solution is not a recount, but a cancellation of the results and a new election altogether

For his part, Mohtashamipour proposed the formation of what he labeled a Truth-finding Committee to investigate electoral irregularities and allegations. The Committee, he insisted, would consist of three representatives of Grand Ayatollahs (maraje’ taqlid), four persons representing the candidates, one employee of the Interior Ministry who has proven his neutrality during the election, one member of the Guardian Council with similar conditions accompanied by a university law professor and an unbiased judge as recommended by the Bar Association, the Attorney General, the Head of the Judicial Branch, and the Head of Iran’s General Inspection Organization. As none of the Grand Ayatollahs have supported Ahmadinejad in the election, the arrangement would severely limit the authority of both the Council and the Interior Ministry.

Iran's Guardians Council, the country's top legislative body, has announced it is ready to partially recount disputed votes cast in the June 12 presidential electio

Council spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodai is quoted by Iran's state news agency as saying that "it is possible that there may be some changes in the tally after the recount."

After the announcement, Reuters quoted a senior ally of reformist candidates Mir Hossein Musavi and Mehdi Karrubi as saying they wanted new elections held rather than a recount of "a few ballot boxes." Both candidates suffered decisive defeats, according to initial results.