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Frank Gallagher

538 - Statistical Analysis of the Election - 0 views

  • please compare the _absolute_ numbers in a graphfor example, AZARBAYJAN:2004-reform/centrist: 950,0002004-conservative: 350,0002009-reform/centrist: 837,0002009-conservative: 1,131,000so reform/centrist decreased by 10% and conservative trippled!? even as people get younger, economy worse, and achmadenijad more unpopular?
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      In My Humble Opinion... This is a more important point than Mousavi being an Azeri. Azeris do not (by my understanding) vote on as dependably ethnic lines as people in Lorestan. They do however, dependably vote reformist. The numbers highlighted here show a huge and very unlikely swing not from one ethnicity to another, but from one political ideology to another. Fraud.
  • city-level returns posted by the Iranian Interior Ministry on their website? These were posted by "Pejman" and translated by "Shaahin" in the comments thread to your previous post: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/statistical-evidence-does-not-prove.html#comment-672782692382259870
  • Just from a cursory glance, you can see the official poll results don't make any sense. Look at one of the third party candidates, Karoubi. He is from Lorestan. in 2005, in the first round he took 55% of the vote in Lorestan. In these results, he takes only 5%.Extraordinarily unlikely.
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  • I took a look at the spreadsheet another commenter linked to with the city reports and checked the frequency of all the last digits. In the Vietnam war, they faked body counts and this was statistically noticeable. Here are the counts:Last Count Normal Cummulative Distribution0 215 99.04%1 189 66.98%2 185 55.82%3 191 72.10%4 183 50.00%5 170 17.05%6 169 15.26%7 173 23.20%8 174 25.49%9 181 44.18%0 is the most popular last digit, and it is more than 2 standard deviations above the mean. It is less than 1% likely this would naturally happen.
Frank Gallagher

Electoral Analysis from Copenhagen University - 0 views

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    Interesting statistics, and reasonable analysis of the discourses of reform, principalism etc.
Frank Gallagher

21st July - Demo and Arrests in Tehran - 0 views

  • TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iranian riot police clashed with hundreds of pro-reform protesters in central Tehran on Tuesday and detained dozens of them, a witness said, in the latest unrest over last month's disputed election.
  • The witness said police beat protesters who had gathered in Tehran's Haft-e Tir square
Frank Gallagher

Khatami: Referendum Can End Iran's Election Crisis Asharq Alawsat - 0 views

  • "Durability of order and continuation of the country's progress hinge on restoring public trust," Khatami, a popular reformist, said, according to the Web sites. "From the start, we said there is a legal way to regain that trust. I openly say now that the solution to get out of the current crisis is holding a referendum."
  • Under Iran's constitution, a referendum has to be ordered by Khamenei himself. All popular votes in Iran are monitored by an oversight body called the Guardian Council. Khatami, however, proposed that a neutral body, such as the Expediency Council, should monitor the proposed referendum instead.
Frank Gallagher

Rafsanjani's Speech at Friday Prayers - July 17th 2009 (English) - 0 views

  • 13:41 Rafsanjani is getting teary. “The prophet respected the rights of all those under his rule.” He brings an example from the end of the prophet’s life where the prophet comes to the people and asks that if he ever treated anyone unfairly, they speak up and let him know.
  • 13:46 The prophet went to Baghi [where his old friends were buried] and said to them: you are lucky that you are no longer here to see that your old brothers are killing and destroying one another.
  • 13:54 Rafsanjani condemns China. People chanted “Death to China” . He asks that people stop their chants.
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  • 14:03 We agreed that you will stop chanting. If we do not have the votes of the people behind us, we will have nothing. The guardian council, the expediency council, EVERYONE gets their legitimacy from the vote of the people.
  • 14:09 I have some suggestions. I have spoken to some members of the the expediency council and the assembly of experts about them too.14:10 We must bring back the trust of the people. First of all, everyone must accept the law. The people, the parliament, everyone.14:11 We must create a condition so that everyone can speak. We must speak logically. And a part of this is on the shoulders of the broadcasting corporation.14:12 The guardian council did not make good use of the extra fives days given to them by the leader.14:13 We do not need people in prison for this. Let’s allow them to return to their families.14:14 We must join hands with those who have incurred great loss and try to lesson their pain.14:15 We must give freedom to the press within the confines of the law.14:15 We are all members of the same family. We must remain friends and allies. Why have we gone so far as to pain some of our marajeh [top religious leaders]?14:16 I hope this sermon will pave a way out of this current situation. A situation that can be considered a crisis.14:17 The sermon is finished.
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    Translation by a reliable opposition blog.
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    Translation by a reliable opposition blog. Probably a crucial landmark in the working out of Iran's crisis.
Frank Gallagher

Another Transcript of Rafsanjani's Speech - 0 views

  • This week, Imam Jafar Sadigh’s martyrdom’s celebration will be held. He spent his entire life either in prison or being censored.
  • The Islamic Revolution was the way of Mohammed. People should be brought into the system first, This is why Imam Khomeini was successful.
  • We were with Imam Khomeini, He always said that without the participation of the people the Islamic government would never be successful. The role that Imam gave the people was very high. (Story about Mohammed’s late life about how important people are)
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  • When we were writing the new constitution, We asked the Imam for advice, He put a lot of emphasis on the role of the people. He also knew that people’s vote was the most important thing inside our country. Everything depended upon the people’s vote. People should directly elect the president, the parliament, the local council. It was all about the vote of the people. This is a theocracy, A theocratic republic.
  • We need to be able to sit down like brothers and sisters and talk about our differences. Unfortunately, The chance that was given to the Guardian Council of five days to get people together and regain their trust was not used.
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    Less polished English, but perhaps thus closer to the original Persian!
Frank Gallagher

Tough Times Ahead for the Iranian Economy - Brookings Institution - 0 views

  • Iran’s economy is facing at least three large imbalances. The most acute is in the balance of payments.
  • Already some candidates are whispering that they favor lowering the exchange rate (increasing the value of the rial relative to other currencies) in order to fight inflation. These candidates would lead voters to believe that they can have their cake and eat it too
  • In these times of frozen international credit markets and economic sanctions against Iran, the second option of foreign borrowing is less likely than it was in the 1990s, but the risk of state-owned enterprises racking up foreign debts using short-term credit from eager overseas suppliers is not altogether gone. This is precisely what they did in the early 1990s, which deepened the post-oil boom slump and halted Rafsanjani’s reforms. Anticipating devaluation and government bailout, these enterprises incurred $10 billion in new short term debt alone between 1991 and 1993. Their actions forced the highly anticipated devaluation of the rial by a factor of 27 during the same period and forced the government to accept this debt as its own.
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  • Repeating the past is more likely to come in the form of the politically more palatable option of simply cutting imports. Such a policy will be costly in terms of jobs and growth, but will unfortunately appeal to any one of the current leading candidates (Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Moussavi, and Ahmadinejad), all of whom have strong dirigiste tendencies and would welcome the power over the private sector which comes with overseeing the allocation of the anticipated $40 billion of oil earnings to industries and individuals.
  • The second imbalance is in the government budget.
  • if the past is any guide, investment will take the biggest hit.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      This pattern has been repeated during Ahmadinejad's term. Soft loans were given out in order to spur the construction of new businesses, but investment levels fell as the new money was either consumed (from imports) or poured into the real estate bubble.
  • The third imbalance is in the country’s financial markets
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    Good backgrounder on the economic hurdles for whoever wins this Friday
Frank Gallagher

Beyond Reformism - Activists take advantage of the election - 0 views

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    Iranian Liberal Democrats form a wide coalition to push for liberalisation. They believe that the upcoming election will prevent a wide-scale crackdown.
Frank Gallagher

Guardian - Mass arrests and campus raids as regime hits back - 0 views

  • hundreds of activists, journalists and intellectuals
  • Four pro-reform newspapers have been closed down,
  • With the exception of Yazdi, the arrests appeared to bypass political leaders and focus on their lieutenants.
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  • Tavassali
  • Nabavi
  • Atrianfar
  • The organisation said security service agents have moved into newspaper offices where they have been vetting articles and censoring content.
  • concerted campaign to link the protests with foreign intervention
  • The wave of detentions has spread beyond the capital to include provincial cities. At least 100 civic figures are understood to have been arrested in Tabriz, where Mousavi has strong support.
  • In Shiraz, in the south of the country, Amnesty cited reports said that a hundred students had been detained after security forces used teargas to storm the university library.
  • members of the Tahkim-e Vahdat, an influential students organisation supporting the other reformist candidate Mehdi Karoubi, had been "systematically targeted".
  • Jalaeipour
  • Soltani
  • Abtahi
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    Covers arrests made 12th-17th June.
Frank Gallagher

RSF - Detailed roundup of censorship since June 12th - 0 views

  • Four interior ministry officials have been arrested for given results that were different from those announced by Ahmadinejad’s allies.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Not sure where that information came from
  • Four of the leading pro-reform newspapers have been closed or prevented from criticising the official election results
  • A member of a TV crew working for the Italian station RAI and a Reuters reporter were beaten by police in the capital. A BBC TV crew was threatened by police at one point, but demonstrators chased the police away. The correspondents of the German TV stations ARD and ZDF were forbidden to leave their hotel on 13 June.
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  • wo Dutch TV journalists working for Nederland 2 were arrested and expelled. Reporter Yolanda Alvarez of the Spanish television station TVE was deported together with her crew today.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      As I understand it, journalists are being harassed, and their Iranian cameramen arrested. Cameras and tapes have also been confisacated (John Simpson - Tehran).
  • Eleven Iranian journalists have been arrested since 12 Jun
  • There is no word of about 10 other journalists who have either been arrested or gone into hiding.
  • The security services have moved into the offices of newspapers where they are reading articles and censoring content.
Frank Gallagher

FT - Reformers arrested in Iran clampdown - 0 views

  • Dozens of reformist political leaders were arrested on Saturday night in Iran
  • Also arrested were Mohsen Mirdamadi, leader of the Iran Islamic Participation Front, the largest reformist party; Zahra Mojaradi, his wife; Saeed Shariati, a member of the party; Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, spokesman in the previous reformist government; and Ahmad Zaidabadi, a senior reformist journalist.Mostafa Tajzadeh and Behzad Nabavi of the Islamic Revolution Mojahedin Organisation, another reformist party, were also taken into custody.
  • Also arrested were Mohsen Mirdamadi, leader of the Iran Islamic Participation Front, the largest reformist party; Zahra Mojaradi, his wife; Saeed Shariati, a member of the party; Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, spokesman in the previous reformist government; and Ahmad Zaidabadi, a senior reformist journalist.
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