538 - Statistical Analysis of the Election - 0 views
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please compare the _absolute_ numbers in a graphfor example, AZARBAYJAN:2004-reform/centrist: 950,0002004-conservative: 350,0002009-reform/centrist: 837,0002009-conservative: 1,131,000so reform/centrist decreased by 10% and conservative trippled!? even as people get younger, economy worse, and achmadenijad more unpopular?
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Frank Gallagher on 15 Jun 09In My Humble Opinion... This is a more important point than Mousavi being an Azeri. Azeris do not (by my understanding) vote on as dependably ethnic lines as people in Lorestan. They do however, dependably vote reformist. The numbers highlighted here show a huge and very unlikely swing not from one ethnicity to another, but from one political ideology to another. Fraud.
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city-level returns posted by the Iranian Interior Ministry on their website? These were posted by "Pejman" and translated by "Shaahin" in the comments thread to your previous post: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/statistical-evidence-does-not-prove.html#comment-672782692382259870
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Just from a cursory glance, you can see the official poll results don't make any sense. Look at one of the third party candidates, Karoubi. He is from Lorestan. in 2005, in the first round he took 55% of the vote in Lorestan. In these results, he takes only 5%.Extraordinarily unlikely.
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