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Frank Gallagher

Yasin on the Election - 0 views

  • As of this writing, there are at least half a dozen campaign headquarters that are currently semi-active or not active at all but are all awaiting the go-ahead from their would-be conservative candidates. Amongst them are those of the current mayor of Tehran, one that belongs to a former foreign minister, one belonging to a current cabinet minister, one to a recently fired minister and one to the former head of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rezaii. 
  • who has been one of the most trenchant critics of Ahmadinejad government from the right flank. A few months ago, he put forth the idea of an inclusive coalition government, one that would encompass many of the moderates and a few of the radicals. The
  • , that Ahmadinejad's re-election is a foregone conclusion
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Is it really that bad?
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • He led Iranian forces against Saddam's armies during the 8-year war and is currently the secretary of the influential Expedience Council. 
  • n a straight conservative-reformist contest between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi, Ahmadinejad is expected to win between 13 to 17 million votes against 9 to 12 million for Mousavi, assuming that the second reformist candidate leaves the race.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Where does this data come from?
  • many Rightist leaders - particularly in the Revolutionary Guards and its paramilitary affiliate, the Basij - have on numerous occasions warned that they would under no circumstances tolerate such a scenario, i.e., even if Mousavi technically wins the election in the first round, he would never be allowed to actually win the presidential seat. 
  • Of the 17 million votes cast, roughly 7 million came from the traditional bloc of conservative voters who unfailingly vote for Rightist candidates. The rest, which was quite a novel development for Iran, came from the economic grievances of the lower classes who were under the impression that Ahmadinejad was a champion of the poor or an anti-corruption crusader.  
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    Cant agree with his prognosis... there's no guarantee that anyone beyond the 7m 'bankers' will vote for Ahmadinejad.
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