Skip to main content

Home/ Iranian Election Fallout/ Group items tagged Reformist

Rss Feed Group items tagged

Filter: All | Bookmarks | Topics Simple Middle
Frank Gallagher

Electoral Analysis from Copenhagen University - 0 views

cuminet.blogs.ku.dk/...who-is-a-reformist

iranjune12

shared by Frank Gallagher on 05 May 09 - Cached
  • Frank Gallagher on 05 May 09
     
    Interesting statistics, and reasonable analysis of the discourses of reform, principalism etc.
Frank Gallagher

538 - Statistical Analysis of the Election - 0 views

www.fivethirtyeight.com/...ction-results-by-province.html

IranJune12th Rigged Election Electoral Process Psephology

shared by Frank Gallagher on 15 Jun 09 - No Cached
  • please compare the _absolute_ numbers in a graphfor example, AZARBAYJAN:2004-reform/centrist: 950,0002004-conservative: 350,0002009-reform/centrist: 837,0002009-conservative: 1,131,000so reform/centrist decreased by 10% and conservative trippled!? even as people get younger, economy worse, and achmadenijad more unpopular?
    • Frank Gallagher
      Frank Gallagher on 15 Jun 09
       
      In My Humble Opinion... This is a more important point than Mousavi being an Azeri. Azeris do not (by my understanding) vote on as dependably ethnic lines as people in Lorestan. They do however, dependably vote reformist. The numbers highlighted here show a huge and very unlikely swing not from one ethnicity to another, but from one political ideology to another. Fraud.
  • Just from a cursory glance, you can see the official poll results don't make any sense. Look at one of the third party candidates, Karoubi. He is from Lorestan. in 2005, in the first round he took 55% of the vote in Lorestan. In these results, he takes only 5%.Extraordinarily unlikely.
  • city-level returns posted by the Iranian Interior Ministry on their website? These were posted by "Pejman" and translated by "Shaahin" in the comments thread to your previous post: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/statistical-evidence-does-not-prove.html#comment-672782692382259870
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • I took a look at the spreadsheet another commenter linked to with the city reports and checked the frequency of all the last digits. In the Vietnam war, they faked body counts and this was statistically noticeable. Here are the counts:Last Count Normal Cummulative Distribution0 215 99.04%1 189 66.98%2 185 55.82%3 191 72.10%4 183 50.00%5 170 17.05%6 169 15.26%7 173 23.20%8 174 25.49%9 181 44.18%0 is the most popular last digit, and it is more than 2 standard deviations above the mean. It is less than 1% likely this would naturally happen.
Frank Gallagher

Rivals both claim victory in Iran's election - Yahoo! News - 0 views

news.yahoo.com/...ml_iran_election_86

IranJune12th Electoral Process

shared by Frank Gallagher on 13 Jun 09 - Cached
  • At a press conference around midnight, Mousavi declared himself "definitely the winner" based on "all indications from all over Iran."
  • "It is our duty to defend people's votes. There is no turning back," Mousavi said, alleging widespread irregularities.
  • Bringing any showdown into the streets would certainly face a swift backlash from security forces. The political chief of the powerful Revolutionary Guard cautioned Wednesday it would crush any "revolution" against the Islamic regime by Mousavi's "green movement."
  • ...6 more annotations...
  • Nationwide, the text messaging system remained down Saturday and pro-Mousavi Web sites were blocked or difficult to access.
  • In Tehran's streets Saturday morning, Iranians heading to work gathered around newspaper stands to read the headlines, which did not specifically declare a victor — or carry word of Mousavi's claims.
  • Mousavi's paper, Kalemeh Sabz, or the Green Word, and other reformist dailies were ordered to change their headlines originally declaring Mousavi the victor, according to editors at the papers, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. The papers had blank spots where articles were removed.
  • The heavy turnout had been expected to help Mousavi. But moments after Mousavi's news conference, Iran's state news agency IRNA reported Ahmadinejad the winner. After what had been seen as a close contest, the overwhelming margin for Ahmadinejad in the Interior Ministry's partial results was startling.
  • By Saturday morning, Ahmadinejad had 64.7 percent and Mousavi had 32.2 percent with 82 percent of all votes counted, said Kamran Daneshjoo, a senior official with the Interior Ministry, which oversees the voting.
  • Mousavi appealed to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to intervene and stop what he said were violations of the law. Khamenei holds ultimate political authority in Iran. "I hope the leader's foresight will bring this to a good end," Mousavi said.
Frank Gallagher

Asia Times Column on Neo-Cons and Haqani - 0 views

www.atimes.com/...GI09Ak01.html

haqani neocons iran

shared by Frank Gallagher on 03 May 09 - Cached
  • Amid talk that the recent election was a silent coup carried out by elements of the hardline Revolutionary Guard after eight years of reformist rule, Western embassies have been scrambling to understand what the Hojjatieh stands for and to what extent the influence of its teachings will be felt in the new government's domestic and foreign policies.
    • Frank Gallagher
      Frank Gallagher on 03 May 09
       
      Ascribing something they dont understand to a liekely looking organisation from the past? Ahmadinejad and Mezbah-Yazdi's chiliastic ideology is hardly consistent with Hojjatieh's traditionalism. Not convinced.
  • The Islamic society he belonged to at Alm-u Sanat University where he attended was an extreme traditional and fundamentalist group that contained a large number of students from the provinces and maintained grass-roots links with the Hojjatieh. The society's anti-leftism also chimes with reports that Ahmadinejad was pushing for a takeover of the Soviet Embassy alongside or instead of the US compound in Tehran during the 1979 revolution.
  • Haqqani theological school
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • Grand Ayatollah Saanei
    • Frank Gallagher
      Frank Gallagher on 03 May 09
       
      To be fair, no-one listens to Sana'i.
  • Baztab
    • Frank Gallagher
      Frank Gallagher on 03 May 09
       
      Run by anti-Ahmadinejad conservatives.
  • Frank Gallagher on 03 May 09
     
    Slightly alarmist. probably trying to explain something they cant see properly with reference to something more obvious. Good background on Haqani though.
‹ Previous 21 - 25 of 25
Showing 20▼ items per page