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Frank Gallagher

Good sources on Iranian politics? - 10 views

Iran Politics Election Psephology IranJune12

started by Frank Gallagher on 28 Apr 09 no follow-up yet
Frank Gallagher

Mousavi running a novel campaign - The National Newspaper - 0 views

  • Mr Mousavi applied to authorities for his own newspaper licence after his self-nomination in March, but he has yet not been awarded one.
  • At 25 rials (one fils) per copy, Andishe Nou costs much less than the cheapest newspaper in circulation. State-sponsored papers cost about 500 rials while privately produced publications can cost up to 5,000 rials.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      I wonder what the total cost would be, and whether other candidates would be able to afford it. Campaign budgets in Iran? No idea.
  • Despite his new methods, Mr Mousavi’s campaign mainly relies on support from ordinary individuals and does not have a big campaign operation.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      If true, it's odd that he's gone for participation alone rather than combining it with the kind of big operation he can supposedly afford.
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    Interesting notes on Musavi's election campaign. Low-key, emphasis on popular participation, and publishing a cheap 1-sheet newspaper without a license.
Frank Gallagher

Rafsanjani's Speech at Friday Prayers - July 17th 2009 (English) - 0 views

  • 13:41 Rafsanjani is getting teary. “The prophet respected the rights of all those under his rule.” He brings an example from the end of the prophet’s life where the prophet comes to the people and asks that if he ever treated anyone unfairly, they speak up and let him know.
  • 13:46 The prophet went to Baghi [where his old friends were buried] and said to them: you are lucky that you are no longer here to see that your old brothers are killing and destroying one another.
  • 13:54 Rafsanjani condemns China. People chanted “Death to China” . He asks that people stop their chants.
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  • 14:03 We agreed that you will stop chanting. If we do not have the votes of the people behind us, we will have nothing. The guardian council, the expediency council, EVERYONE gets their legitimacy from the vote of the people.
  • 14:09 I have some suggestions. I have spoken to some members of the the expediency council and the assembly of experts about them too.14:10 We must bring back the trust of the people. First of all, everyone must accept the law. The people, the parliament, everyone.14:11 We must create a condition so that everyone can speak. We must speak logically. And a part of this is on the shoulders of the broadcasting corporation.14:12 The guardian council did not make good use of the extra fives days given to them by the leader.14:13 We do not need people in prison for this. Let’s allow them to return to their families.14:14 We must join hands with those who have incurred great loss and try to lesson their pain.14:15 We must give freedom to the press within the confines of the law.14:15 We are all members of the same family. We must remain friends and allies. Why have we gone so far as to pain some of our marajeh [top religious leaders]?14:16 I hope this sermon will pave a way out of this current situation. A situation that can be considered a crisis.14:17 The sermon is finished.
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    Translation by a reliable opposition blog.
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    Translation by a reliable opposition blog. Probably a crucial landmark in the working out of Iran's crisis.
Frank Gallagher

July 9: Updates on the Protests in Iran - The Lede Blog - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • There was no linking of the protests with any of Mousavi’s demands to work within the system or within a new political party - his name has seemed to separate from his corpus for the protesters. However, this was the most raucous 18th of Tir [9th of July] since the original one, so the regime may have been surprised its scare tactics did not completely work.
  • In one of the videos above it has been translated that people are chanting “Death to Mojtaba” Khamanei’s son, but the actual translation is more colorful. For the non-Farsi speakers they are actually chanting “MOJTABA, WE HOPE YOU DIE BEFORE YOU GET THE SUPREME LEADERSHIP” responding to reports that Khamanei is grooming his son to become the next supreme leader after he dies.
  • Hundreds of Republican Guards and Basij at Enqelab, Valiasar and Vanak. At Vanak soldiers every 5 feet around the roundabout. Lots of Basij motorcycle gangs (15-25 in each) swerving around the cars.
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  • Hundreds of Basij have set up camp in Laleh park, which seems to be pretty close to the epicenter. Some fires still burning.
  • The phones are completely out.
  • squads of 25 police would run up the streets with batons beating people
  • Saw two undercover Basij, one was actually a late 40s businessman in a suit, whipped out a collapsible metal baton and started beating someone with a camera. He was beaten until the baton broke, another Basij came on motorcycle to help but crowds started surging and booed them away. Someone threw a water bottle but otherwise crowd is peaceful — keep chanting “Please Stop!” and chased the two Basij away.
  • “I did shoot at people myself. I am a military man I have to obey my orders. The crowd was attacking us like crazy people; throwing stones and Molotov cocktails. We had to protect ourselves; to show we were serious, and we did warn them, shouting several times, before opening fire. But they continued to attack. I don’t remember who I shot, I just tried to shoot at the people’s feet.
  • It’s come back several times, and I can see the faces of the people I was ordered to shoot. I’ve asked a very spiritual mullah to pray for me.
  • I did it for Islam but it wasn’t easy to kill people. We have to remember who they are though - they’re deceitful people who are against the Islamic Revolution. You can’t expect us to stay calm when they want to overthrow our regime.”
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    Running description of the 18th Tir rememberence marches.
Frank Gallagher

EurasiaNet Civil Society - Iran: Ahmadinejad Backers Lay Groundwork for Massive Vote-Ri... - 0 views

  • After four years in office, Ahmadinejad has filled the Interior Ministry with cronies, many of whom have connections to the Revolutionary Guards. A source who participated in closed Interior Ministry planning sessions, speaking on condition of anonymity to EurasiaNet, says top ministry personnel openly stated during one session that a repeat of the 1997 election, in which the reformist candidate, Mohammad Khatami, scored an upset victory, would not be tolerated on June 12.
  • By the numbers, it would seem that the country’s vast election apparatus has the ability to guarantee a favorable outcome for Ahmadinejad. According to Kamran Daneshjoo, the Interior Ministry official responsible for overseeing the voting, there are 385,000 citizens who will be administering voting precincts. The Guardian Council is expected to deploy another 340,000 people to monitor the balloting. In addition, there will be hundreds of thousands of security personnel deployed on election day. Overall, the country has about 57 million citizens of voting age, meaning that roughly 1 in 60 Iranians of voting age will be involved in some aspect of conducting the election.
  • For one, they note that over 59 million ballots have been printed, far more than the number of registered voters
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  • They also have evidence that a substantial, though undetermined, number of soldiers has been ordered to hand over their national identity cards to officers.
  • Most importantly, according to another CPV report, up to a third of voting booths in Iran will be protected by the Revolutionary Guards, and not the regular Law Enforcement Agency personnel.
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    Reasonable pre-election look at suspicious activity. Good stats on electoral administration.
Frank Gallagher

All b ar one of Brirish Embassy Staff Freed - 0 views

  • Hossein Rassam,
  • Yadollah Javani, the head of political department of the elite Revolutionary Guards,
Frank Gallagher

Inside the Iranian Crackdown - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • "It wasn't about elections anymore," says Mr. Moradani, a short, skinny man with pitch-black hair and a beard. "I was defending my country and our revolution and Islam. Everything was at risk."
  • They collected rocks, tiles and bricks from construction sites and spilled oil on the roads, an attempt to sideline the Basij's motorcycles. When a Basij rider would go down, the young men would beat him, according to the student. Women stood back, screaming "Death to the Dictator" and stoking bonfires in the street. Older supporters remained indoors, throwing ashtrays, vases and other household items from their balconies and windows onto the Basij motorcycle riders below.
  • He says he hopes one day to follow in his father's footsteps and join the Revolutionary Guard. He has taken the Guard's rigorous entrance exam twice, passing the ideology and the written portions both times. But he failed the final hurdle: an intense interview that lasts six to eight hours. Applicants must discuss why they are loyal to the regime and the Supreme Leader. He intends to try again.
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  • At the height of the street battles, in Sadaat Abad, a middle-class neighborhood in east Tehran, young men and women organized themselves into an unofficial militia to fight the Basij, with a "commander" taking responsibility for each street. Every afternoon, they would meet to prepare for the evening's expected battle, according to a 25-year-old student who was involved with the group.
  • Mr. Moradani remembers field trips to war monuments, Shiite shrines and so-called martyrs' cemeteries, where those who died in the Iran-Iraq war are buried. He received his first military training before he turned 14, learning how to handle a gun and fight from trenches, he says. When he was 14, the Basij forces piled Mr. Moradani and 100 other youths into buses and took them around the dormitories of Tehran University. At the time -- 10 years ago this week -- students had been orchestrating large, antigovernment protests. The demonstrations were among the most significant since the 1979 founding of the Islamic Republic. Basij commanders ordered the teenagers to beat up student organizers, Mr. Moradani says. They did. In 2003, when student uprisings erupted again, he rushed to help quash them.
  • A few hours after Mr. Khamenei's sermon, Mr. Moradani got a call at home. The local Basij headquarters was holding an emergency meeting. About four hundred members showed up. A top Basij commander briefed them on the riots and their responsibilities going forward. He called protesters "havoc makers" and accused them of having ties to Western countries aiming to sow chaos in Iran. The commander said the protests were no longer a matter of election unrest, but had become a serious, national-security threat.
  • Mr. Moradani lined up with his comrades to receive an official letter of deployment, signed and bearing the seal of the Revolutionary Guard. He was given new equipment: a camouflage vest to wear over his clothes, a plastic baton, handcuffs and a hand-held radio. Depending on rank, some members received shields and hard hats, and others were given chains and tear gas, according to Messrs. Gholami and Moradani. Mr. Moradani says no one in his division carried knives or guns.
  • A surgeon at Pars Hospital in central Tehran, where many of the fallen were taken, confirmed casualties on both sides. He said the hospital had operated on three young people from the opposition who were shot in the head and abdomen by security forces. He also treated scores who were badly beaten or stabbed, he said. Among them were Basij and government supporters, he said -- including Basij members who had acid thrown on their faces.
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    Interesting article includes interview with a Basiji, description of the nighttime riots, and confirmation of the 'cnaged terms of engagement' after Khamenei's sermon.
Frank Gallagher

Guardian - Mass arrests and campus raids as regime hits back - 0 views

  • hundreds of activists, journalists and intellectuals
  • concerted campaign to link the protests with foreign intervention
  • With the exception of Yazdi, the arrests appeared to bypass political leaders and focus on their lieutenants.
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  • Tavassali
  • Nabavi
  • Atrianfar
  • The organisation said security service agents have moved into newspaper offices where they have been vetting articles and censoring content.
  • Four pro-reform newspapers have been closed down,
  • The wave of detentions has spread beyond the capital to include provincial cities. At least 100 civic figures are understood to have been arrested in Tabriz, where Mousavi has strong support.
  • In Shiraz, in the south of the country, Amnesty cited reports said that a hundred students had been detained after security forces used teargas to storm the university library.
  • members of the Tahkim-e Vahdat, an influential students organisation supporting the other reformist candidate Mehdi Karoubi, had been "systematically targeted".
  • Jalaeipour
  • Soltani
  • Abtahi
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    Covers arrests made 12th-17th June.
Frank Gallagher

Proposal for Guardians Council Re-Count Rejected by Mousavi - 0 views

  • On Monday, June 15, in what may have appeared as a slight softening of his initial enthusiastic response to the official results of the presidential election, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, called for a “careful” evaluation of complaints submitted by reformist challenger Mir Hussein Mousavi to the Guardian Council.  Subsequently, on Tuesday, the Speaker of the Council, after meeting with representatives of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s opponents, announced the Council’s readiness to conduct a recount of votes from any and all disputed voting districts.
  • “I have written a letter to the Guardian Council and described the various irregularities,” he announced, “even though I have no hope in the Council. Many of its [twelve] members did not preserve their neutrality during the election process and openly supported the incumbent candidate.” Mousavi’s proposed solution is not a recount, but a cancellation of the results and a new election altogether
  • For his part, Mohtashamipour proposed the formation of what he labeled a Truth-finding Committee to investigate electoral irregularities and allegations. The Committee, he insisted, would consist of three representatives of Grand Ayatollahs (maraje’ taqlid), four persons representing the candidates, one employee of the Interior Ministry who has proven his neutrality during the election, one member of the Guardian Council with similar conditions accompanied by a university law professor and an unbiased judge as recommended by the Bar Association, the Attorney General, the Head of the Judicial Branch, and the Head of Iran’s General Inspection Organization. As none of the Grand Ayatollahs have supported Ahmadinejad in the election, the arrangement would severely limit the authority of both the Council and the Interior Ministry.
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  • “Imam Khomeini once told the Guardian Council ‘I fear the day when you are surrounded by an [elite] group, while the youth and our people scream slogans against you to reclaim their rights.’ 
Frank Gallagher

Only 28 percent of MP's Support Ahmadinejad - roozonline.com - 0 views

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    Larijani gets full support of MPs present, Ahmadejad can only manage 80. Principalists talking about backing Musavi.
Frank Gallagher

Ayandeh News Poll puts Musavi ahead - 0 views

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    Shock bloody horror. And of course, IRIB put Ahmadinejad on track for a 1st round victory.
Frank Gallagher

Iran: Factional dispute over unity and coalition schemes - 0 views

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    Nate-Nuri pushed for wide coalition, but Khamenei is not interested. Rezai pushing for pan-conservative coalition.
Frank Gallagher

Khamenei's backing for ahmaninejad - 0 views

  • He said, "I know the country's condition is better than all these gentlemen.  I know much of what they say about the condition of the country and economy is contrary to reality.  They are mistaken."
  • Mousavi also criticized the imbalanced competition ahead of the election, noting, "These elections are held under peculiar circumstances.  Thirty provincial and six national television channels cover the president's provincial visits, which are used for campaigning purposes. 
  • Last September, as the Ahmadinejad presidency entered its last year, Khamenei told Ahmadinejad and members of his cabinet, "Work as if you plan to work for another five years; imagine that this one year plus four more years are under your management.  Look at things, work, plan and act as if that is the case."
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    Good quotes... note on TV support and provincial trips
Frank Gallagher

Zahra Rahnavard speaks out on the need for women cabinet ministers - 0 views

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    Interesting that she's making political statements... not just being brought out as 'supportive wife'.
Frank Gallagher

Document - Iran: Ensure free presidential election | Amnesty International - 0 views

  • . In December 2008, the Office of the Tehran Public Prosecutor announced the formation of a “special office to review Internet- and SMS-related crimes and violations”, stating that the office would review election campaign violations and “offensive remarks”made by SMS. These measures may in part be intended to stifle debate, prevent the organization of peaceful demonstrations, and to silence critics of the authorities in advance of the election.
  • The arrest on 19 April 2009 by officers of the Revolutionary Court in Tehran of Mehdi Mo’tamedi Mehr, a member of the Committee to Defend Free, Healthy and Fair Elections and a member of the Freedom Movement, a banned political party. Prior to his arrest he had been telephoned by a Ministry of Intelligence official and told that publication of a statement entitled “Civil Society Institution as Election Observers: An Assurance toward Free, Healthy and Fair Elections” by the Committee would be an act against national security. The statement was published anyway, and he was arrested. He has been accused of “acting against state security”. On 29 April, security forces prevented other members of the committee from holding a meeting in the “Raad” Legal Institute which belongs to Mohammad Ali Dadkhah, a prominent lawyer and member of the High Oversight Council of the Centre for Human Rights Defenders (CHRD). The CHRD was forcibly closed in December 2008 and has not been allowed to reopen.
  • At least three Amir Kabir University students who remain detained without trial in Section 209 of Evin Prison in Tehran following their arrests in February 2009. O
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  • Over 100 people arrested in Tehran and Sanandaj in the run-up to, during, and after peaceful gatherings planned to celebrate May Day 2009. Although some have been released, dozens are believed to remain in detention,
  • Sajad Khaksari, a reporter for the weekly Qalam-e Moalem (Teacher’s Pen) and the son of Mohamad Khaksari and Soraya Darabi, both leaders of the Iran Teachers Trade Association (ITTA), was arrested on 26 April 2009 in front of the Ministry of Education. He was covering protests by teachers
Frank Gallagher

Karrubi, the Election, and Facebook - 0 views

  • An interesting thing is that Mehdi Karroubi is not alone in his campaign photo (see above). He is pictured with the former mayor of Tehran, Gholamhossein Karbasschi's in the circle just behind him. Perhaps the “change” slogan is not the only thing that Karroubi borrowed from the U.S. election. Has he created himself an unofficial running mate?
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    Karrubi's facebook page has just 300 fans, most loggers supporting Musavi - so far so dull. More interesting... Karbaschi's face appears in the background of promotional materials. Given how much Karrubi is trying to model his campaign on Barrack Obama's, this is being interpreted as the additon of a 'running mate'. I dont think it's as new as is being suggested here though. As I recall, Musavi's image appeared behind Khatami's in 1997...
Frank Gallagher

Gallery of Recent AP Photos (June 14th-15th) - 0 views

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    Includes protester apparently shot by Basij
Frank Gallagher

Karrubi hits Basij and Guardians Council - 0 views

  • Karroubi who has faulted the Secretary of Iran's Guardian Council Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati for canvassing support for President Ahmadinejad, urged the council to comply by its supervisory obligations.
  • criticized the recent statements of the IRGC Chief-Commander, Major General Mohammad-Ali Jafari about the division of Basij into two segments -- military and non-military -- the second which has reportedly been allowed to be involved in political activities.
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