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Hans De Keulenaer

Future Scenarios - Introduction - 0 views

  • The simultaneous onset of climate change and the peaking of global oil supply represent unprecedented challenges for human civilisation. Global oil peak has the potential to shake if not destroy the foundations of global industrial economy and culture. Climate change has the potential to rearrange the biosphere more radically than the last ice age. Each limits the effective options for responses to the other. The strategies for mitigating the adverse effects and/or adapting to the consequences of Climate Change have mostly been considered and discussed in isolation from those relevant to Peak Oil. While awareness of Peak Oil, or at least energy crisis, is increasing, understanding of how these two problems might interact to generate quite different futures, is still at an early state.
Hans De Keulenaer

Marginal Land Produces Marginal Biomass | The Energy Collective - 2 views

  • Using detailed land analysis, Illinois researchers have found that biofuel crops cultivated on available land could produce up to half of the world’s current fuel consumption — without affecting food crops or pastureland.
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    An alternative to the electric scenario. More land use, more jobs - though less qualified ones, less technology. To be compared.
Hans De Keulenaer

ECREEE Validation Workshop on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policies and Scena... - 1 views

  • The Commission of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) works towards a voluntary commitment to the Sustainable Energy For All Initiative of the UN Secretary General presented at the Rio+20. In a regional workshop, held from 25 to 27 June 2012 in Dakar, Senegal, the Directors of the ECOWAS Ministries of Energy agreed on the main targets and pillars of a regional renewable energy and energy efficiency policy of ECOWAS. The policies aim at the following objectives: Around 30% of the electricity consumption in the ECOWAS region will be saved through demand and supply side efficiency improvements by 2030. The share of renewable energy (incl. large hydro) of the total installed electric generation capacity of ECOWAS will increase to 35% in 2020 and 48% to 2030. The share of new renewable energy such as wind, solar, small scale hydro and bioelectricity (excl. large hydro) will increase to around 10% in 2020 and 19% in 2030. These targets translate to an additional 2.425 MW renewable electricity capacity by 2020 and 7.606 MW by 2030. To provide universal access to energy services it is envisaged that around 75% of the rural population will be served through grid extension and around 25% by renewable energy powered by mini-grids and stand-alone systems in 2030. By 2020 the whole ECOWAS population will have access to improved cooking facilities either through improved stoves or fuel switching to other modern forms of energy such as LPG. The share of ethanol/biodiesel in transport fuels will increase to 5% in 2020 and 10% in 2030. By 2030 around 50% of all health centers, 25% of all hotels and agro-food industries with hot water requirements will be equipped with solar thermal systems.
Hans De Keulenaer

Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050 « Free Book Bank - 0 views

  • Transport is one of the major global consumers of energy and therefore has an important role in meeting the primary objective of the World Energy Council, sustainable energy for all.
  • Sustainability is measured in terms of the 3 A’s criteria of accessibility, availability and acceptability, differentiating between the relative importance of different regions.
    • Hans De Keulenaer
       
      An alternative definition of sustainability for consideration.
Energy Net

Worldchanging: Bright Green: A New, Bold Plan for a Carbon-Neutral UK by 2030 - 0 views

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    "Carbon neutrality by 2030 is the new standard for climate policies, and again the UK is leading North America in the climate debate with a bold national-level proposal about how to get there. The Centre for Alternative Technology just launched zerocarbonbritain2030 (ZCB2030), a collaborative project showing one possible scenario for making the entire UK carbon-neutral by 2030. ZCB2030 is a well-researched, well-written, and well-designed report on a set of possible pathways to a zero carbon Britain by 2030 (The goal, though bold, is not unique: Alex Steffen called for a very similar position for Seattle, a target which the Seattle City Council has included in their legislative priorities this year; and a variety of other nations and cities are approaching the same target, from Copenhagen to New Zealand). In 384 pages, CAT presents a comprehensive look at the kind of systemic changes needed to achieve dramatic emissions reduction in just 20 years in such areas as farming, energy generation, building codes, transportation planning, and economic frameworks. This report truly addresses the scope, scale and speed of the climate crisis and the solutions needed to create a bright green future. "
Hans De Keulenaer

T2419.pdf (application/pdf Object) - 0 views

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    The report presents how climate will change according to climate models concerning the planning and building of electric power networks from the present state to the period from 2016 to 2045. The essential impacts of changes in weather conditions on planning and building of electric network are defined regionally based on the climate change scenarios. The importance of the effects is shown as costs and failure durations for different line structures. Moreover, the influence of the climate change on the loading capacity of the power system components is presented. On the basis of all these factors it will be judged how strong an effect the climate change has in the present electric power network and how one should be prepared for it.
davidchapman

Expert: All electricity from renewable sources - 0 views

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    Given the political will, Europe could within a few years meet 100 percent of its electricity needs from renewable energy sources, at no cost difference to today's fossil fuel-based system. The scenario includes the construction of a high-voltage direct current European super grid linking all countries in Europe, and the continent externally to Africa and the Middle East.
Colin Bennett

Thoughts On Piers' "Why Build Sustainability into your Business" on PSFK - 0 views

  • A recent post entitled ‘Why build Sustainability into your business’ highlighted some great profit centred arguments for building sustainability into business strategies. The basic premise behind them being that “greed got us into this mess and greed will get us out”… “being green means making more profit”. Piers Fawkes illustrated this paradigm with some exciting contemporary examples of win-win scenarios arising from corporate responses to the sustainability agenda. Yet there seems to be something rather unsettling about the notion that our last hope should be greed. Einstein once said that you can’t solve a problem with the same thinking that gave rise to it. Was this to be the exception?
Colin Bennett

Dependence on nuclear fuel - 0 views

  • Investment of $20.2 trillion will be required by 2030 under the IEA alternative energy scenario, increasing nuclear capacity by 41% to 519 GWe and reducing energy demand by 10% and CO2 emissions by 16% compared with projections on present basis. Of this amount, $11.3 trillion will go for electricity: $5.2 trillion for generation, and the rest for transmission and distribution.
Hans De Keulenaer

Green Car Congress: EPRI-NRDC Studies Highlight GHG and Air Quality Benefits of Plug-in... - 0 views

  • Widespread adoption of PHEVs could reduce GHG emissions from vehicles by more than 450 million metric tons annually in 2050—equivalent to removing 82.5 million passenger cars from the road. Cumulative GHG emissions reductions from 2010 to 2050 could reach 10.3 billion metric tons under the most aggressive scenarios for the development of a lower-carbon electrical infrastructure and PHEV penetration.
Hans De Keulenaer

Energy Outlook - 0 views

  • Any answers to these questions would be purely speculative, but if the industry had continued expanding at its previous rate, then instead of the current 104 reactors, we might easily have 200, contributing 40% of our total electricity supplies. Coal-fired power plants would supply only 32% of our power needs, instead of 50%, and we'd emit roughly 650 million tons less CO2 per year.
Hans De Keulenaer

Alternative Energy Futures: The Case for Electricity -- Colombo 217 (4561): 705 -- Science - 0 views

  • The energy trends of the past and their likely evolution in the next 50 years have been analyzed in the light of technological progress. It is concluded that society will tend to become less centralized than in the past and that it is possible to have future per capita values of energy consumption at the world level similar to those at present, with a substantial redistribution to allow for economic growth of the less developed countries. A condition for this is increasing penetration of electricity. The rationale for the suggested scenario is described, and prospects for electricity for both the industrialized and developing countries are discussed.
Jeff Johnson

The balance of power - 0 views

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    What will happen when the gas runs out, when the deepest oil well of the Arabian peninsula finally runs dry, when the giant drills of the offshore platforms reach nothing but dry rock? Will we face a future of blackouts and electricity rationing, or will we find a way to avert the doomiest scenarios and continue living lives in which energy consumption is crucial to everything we do. Think of the electricity you use in a day. You are woken by the clock radio buzzing into life, and you turn the bathroom light on as you climb into your power shower. After dressing you head downstairs, where you turn on another radio, put some bread into the toaster and turn on the kettle, getting the milk from your fridge to put in your tea. After breakfast you head to work, where the lights are burning - and on go the computer and desktop fan.
Hans De Keulenaer

The transition to a Zero Emission Vehicles fleet for cars in the EU by 2050 - 1 views

shared by Hans De Keulenaer on 14 Nov 17 - No Cached
  • Decarbonising transport is central to achieving Europe’s policy commitments on climate change. T ransport is expected to deliver a 60% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of the EU for 2050. Achieving these commitments is expected to require a complete decarbonisation of the passenger car fleet. The more ambitious COP21 commitment to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C will also likely demand a complete decarbonisation of transport by 2050.
  • Attaining a 100% ZEV fleet by 2050 will require all new car sales to be ZEV by 2035 (assuming a similar vehicle life-time as today) and a substantially faster introduction of ZEVs and PHEVs than current policy and likely 2025 policies will achieve .
  • Compared to the CO2 emission reductions targeted in the current EU plan, the transition to a 100% ZEV car fleet by 2050 will result in an additional reduction of the cumulative CO2 emissions in the period 2020 and 2050 of 2.2 to 3.9 gigatonnes. The current EU White Paper for T ransport, targets to reduce the transport emissions by 60% compared to 1990.
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  • The best option for a rapid emission reduction is to focus on BEVs rather than PHEVs whereby the EU goes directly and aggressively to 100% ZEV sales. A scenario where PHEVs are first will push the strong ZEV growth further into the future and will ultimately require a larger effort at a later time. However, the impact of (an early fleet of) PHEVs on reducing ZEV costs, increasing consumer acceptance and promoting investments in charging / fuelling infra is difficult to predict / model and may play an important role as well.
  • The “Tank to Wheel” amount of energy needed for transport will be reduced by 78% compared to today for a transition to a BEV passenger car fleet. A transition to a 100% fuel cell electric vehicle fleet will result in a 46% reduction of energy for the EU’s car fleet.
  • Around 1,740 million barrels of oil per year could be saved by 2050 with the transition to a zero-emission passenger car fleet, the equivalent of € 78 billion at the current price of 45 $ per barrel.
  • The GHGs from oil will potentially get higher if shifting to for example oil sands .
  • Purchase cost parity is assumed to be achieved in the period 2022-2026 for a BEV and a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), with BEVs being comparatively lower in cost after that. Parity at Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) level will be achieved 2 to 4 years before the purchase cost parity is achieved. The average TCO for a ZEV will be €0.04 to €0.06 per kilometre less than an ICEV by 2030.
  • This represents societal savings of € 140 billion to € 210 billion per year for a 100% ZEV EU car fleet.
  • A mass market for ZEV cars will create synergy for the cost competitive development of a ZEV LCV (Light Commercial V ehicles) market representing 17% of the light vehicles emissions. It will also accelerate the development of a HDV (Heavy Duty V ehicle) ZEV / PHEV market for passenger and goods transportation. It will also free up advanced biofuels for other transport sectors.
  • A lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity of 400 to 600 Gigawatt hours will be required at the point where 100% of the passenger cars in Europe sold will be BEV . This is the equivalent of around 10 to 14 “Giga factories” representing a value of €40 to 60 billion per year for cars alone.
  • In addition, as BEVs have superior driving performance characteristics and people used to driving electric do not return to ICEVs, the transition may become demand driven once the price, range and infrastructure barriers have been removed.
Phil Slade

World Energy Outlook Homepage - 3 views

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    "The 2010 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) was released on 9 November and it provides updated projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, fuel by fuel and region by region to 2035. It includes, for the first time, a new scenario that anticipates future actions by governments to meet the commitments they have made to tackle climate change and growing energy insecurity@
Arabica Robusta

ZCommunications | The Search for BP's Oil by Naomi Klein | ZNet Article - 1 views

  • Normally these academics would be fine without our fascination. They weren't looking for glory when they decided to study organisms most people either can't see or wish they hadn't. But when the Deepwater Horizon exploded in April 2010, our collective bias toward cute big creatures started to matter a great deal. That's because the instant the spill-cam was switched off and it became clear that there would be no immediate mass die-offs among dolphins and pelicans, at least not on the scale of theExxon Valdez spill deaths, most of us were pretty much on to the next telegenic disaster. (Chilean miners down a hole—and they've got video diaries? Tell us more!)
  • Mike Utsler, BP's Unified Area Commander, summed up its findings like this: "The beaches are safe, the water is safe, and the seafood is safe." Never mind that just four days earlier, more than 8,000 pounds of tar balls were collected on Florida's beaches—and that was an average day. Or that gulf residents and cleanup workers continue to report serious health problems that many scientists believe are linked to dispersant and crude oil exposure.
  • For the scientists aboard the WeatherBird II, the recasting of the Deepwater Horizon spill as a good-news story about a disaster averted has not been easy to watch. Over the past seven months, they, along with a small group of similarly focused oceanographers from other universities, have logged dozens of weeks at sea in cramped research vessels, carefully measuring and monitoring the spill's impact on the delicate and little-understood ecology of the deep ocean. And these veteran scientists have seen things that they describe as unprecedented. Among their most striking findings are graveyards of recently deceased coral, oiled crab larvae, evidence of bizarre sickness in the phytoplankton and bacterial communities, and a mysterious brown liquid coating large swaths of the ocean floor, snuffing out life underneath.
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  • All this uncertainty will work in BP's favor if the worst-case scenarios eventually do materialize. Indeed, concerns about a future collapse may go some way toward explaining why BP (with the help of Kenneth Feinberg's Gulf Coast Claims Facility) has been in a mad rush to settle out of court with fishermen, offering much-needed cash now in exchange for giving up the right to sue later. If a significant species of fish like bluefin does crash three or even ten years from now (bluefin live for fifteen to twenty years), the people who took these deals will have no legal recourse.
  • A week after Hollander returned from the cruise, Unified Area Command came out with its good news report on the state of the spill. Of thousands of water samples taken since August, the report stated, less than 1 percent met EPA definitions of toxicity. It also claimed that the deepwater sediment is largely free from BP's oil, except within about two miles of the wellhead. That certainly came as news to Hollander, who at that time was running tests of oiled sediment collected thirty nautical miles from the wellhead, in an area largely overlooked by the government scientists. Also, the government scientists measured only absolute concentrations of oil and dispersants in the water and sediment before declaring them healthy. The kinds of tests John Paul conducted on the toxicity of that water to microorganisms are simply absent.
  • Coast Guard Rear Adm. Paul Zukunft, whose name is on the cover of the report, told me of the omission, "That really is a limitation under the Clean Water Act and my authorities as the federal on-scene coordinator." When it comes to oil, "it's my job to remove it"—not to assess its impact on the broader ecosystem. He pointed me to the NOAA-led National Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) process, which is gathering much more sensitive scientific data to help it put a dollar amount on the overall impact of the spill and seek damages from BP and other responsible parties.
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    Normally these academics would be fine without our fascination. They weren't looking for glory when they decided to study organisms most people either can't see or wish they hadn't. But when the Deepwater Horizon exploded in April 2010, our collective bias toward cute big creatures started to matter a great deal. That's because the instant the spill-cam was switched off and it became clear that there would be no immediate mass die-offs among dolphins and pelicans, at least not on the scale of theExxon Valdez spill deaths, most of us were pretty much on to the next telegenic disaster. (Chilean miners down a hole-and they've got video diaries? Tell us more!)
Hans De Keulenaer

EIA - Press Releases - EIA Assesses Impact of Economic Growth, Oil Prices, and Future P... - 0 views

  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) today released the complete version of the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO2010), which includes 38 sensitivity cases that show how different assumptions regarding market and policy drivers affect the Reference case projections that EIA previously released in December, 2009. In addition to considering alternative scenarios for oil prices, economic growth, and the uptake of more energy-efficient technologies, the AEO2010 includes cases that examine the impact of changes in selected policies, such as the extension of existing policies that are currently scheduled to sunset as well as the sensitivity of natural gas shale production to variations in drilling activity and the size of the resource base.
Hans De Keulenaer

The Oil Drum: Europe | Cassandra's curse: how "The Limits to Growth" was demonized - 0 views

  • Cassandra's story is very old: she was cursed that she would always tell the truth and never be believed. But it is also a very modern story and, perhaps, the quintessential Cassandras of our age are the group of scientists who prepared and published in 1972 the book titled "The Limits to Growth". With its scenarios of civilization collapse, the book shocked the world perhaps more than Cassandra had shocked her fellow Trojan citizens when she had predicted the fall of their city to the Achaeans. Just as Cassandra was not believed, so it was for the "Limits to Growth" which, today, is still widely seen as a thoroughly flawed study, wrong all along. This opinion is based only on lies and distortions but, apparently, Cassandra's curse is still alive and well in our times.
Hans De Keulenaer

SpringerLink - Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, Online First™ - 0 views

  • The continued outward growth from a central business district has been the dominant characteristic of most cities in Australia. However, this feature is seen as unsustainable and alternative scenarios to contain the outward growth are being proposed. Melbourne is currently grappling with this issue while simultaneously trying to reduce per capita greenhouse gas emissions. Housing size, style and its location are the three principal factors which determine the emissions from the residential sector. This paper describes a methodology to assess the combined impact of these factors on past and possible future forms of residential development in Melbourne. The analysis found that the location of the housing and its size are the dominant factors determining energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.
Hans De Keulenaer

Growth of solar energy is not in line with the needs for ambitious energy transition | ... - 3 views

  • With an installed capacity of 117 GW at the end of 2018, the EU further lost ground in the worldwide market.
  • According to a recent 100% RES scenario of the Energy Watch Group, the EU needs to increase its PV capacity from 117 GW to over 630 GW by 2025 and 1.94 TW by 2050 in order to cover 100% of its electricity needs by renewable energy.
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