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Hans De Keulenaer

The transition to a Zero Emission Vehicles fleet for cars in the EU by 2050 - 1 views

shared by Hans De Keulenaer on 14 Nov 17 - No Cached
  • Decarbonising transport is central to achieving Europe’s policy commitments on climate change. T ransport is expected to deliver a 60% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of the EU for 2050. Achieving these commitments is expected to require a complete decarbonisation of the passenger car fleet. The more ambitious COP21 commitment to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C will also likely demand a complete decarbonisation of transport by 2050.
  • Attaining a 100% ZEV fleet by 2050 will require all new car sales to be ZEV by 2035 (assuming a similar vehicle life-time as today) and a substantially faster introduction of ZEVs and PHEVs than current policy and likely 2025 policies will achieve .
  • Compared to the CO2 emission reductions targeted in the current EU plan, the transition to a 100% ZEV car fleet by 2050 will result in an additional reduction of the cumulative CO2 emissions in the period 2020 and 2050 of 2.2 to 3.9 gigatonnes. The current EU White Paper for T ransport, targets to reduce the transport emissions by 60% compared to 1990.
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  • The best option for a rapid emission reduction is to focus on BEVs rather than PHEVs whereby the EU goes directly and aggressively to 100% ZEV sales. A scenario where PHEVs are first will push the strong ZEV growth further into the future and will ultimately require a larger effort at a later time. However, the impact of (an early fleet of) PHEVs on reducing ZEV costs, increasing consumer acceptance and promoting investments in charging / fuelling infra is difficult to predict / model and may play an important role as well.
  • The “Tank to Wheel” amount of energy needed for transport will be reduced by 78% compared to today for a transition to a BEV passenger car fleet. A transition to a 100% fuel cell electric vehicle fleet will result in a 46% reduction of energy for the EU’s car fleet.
  • Around 1,740 million barrels of oil per year could be saved by 2050 with the transition to a zero-emission passenger car fleet, the equivalent of € 78 billion at the current price of 45 $ per barrel.
  • The GHGs from oil will potentially get higher if shifting to for example oil sands .
  • Purchase cost parity is assumed to be achieved in the period 2022-2026 for a BEV and a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), with BEVs being comparatively lower in cost after that. Parity at Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) level will be achieved 2 to 4 years before the purchase cost parity is achieved. The average TCO for a ZEV will be €0.04 to €0.06 per kilometre less than an ICEV by 2030.
  • This represents societal savings of € 140 billion to € 210 billion per year for a 100% ZEV EU car fleet.
  • A mass market for ZEV cars will create synergy for the cost competitive development of a ZEV LCV (Light Commercial V ehicles) market representing 17% of the light vehicles emissions. It will also accelerate the development of a HDV (Heavy Duty V ehicle) ZEV / PHEV market for passenger and goods transportation. It will also free up advanced biofuels for other transport sectors.
  • A lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity of 400 to 600 Gigawatt hours will be required at the point where 100% of the passenger cars in Europe sold will be BEV . This is the equivalent of around 10 to 14 “Giga factories” representing a value of €40 to 60 billion per year for cars alone.
  • In addition, as BEVs have superior driving performance characteristics and people used to driving electric do not return to ICEVs, the transition may become demand driven once the price, range and infrastructure barriers have been removed.
Phil Slade

UK DECC 2050 low-carbon energy system calculator tool - 1 views

    "About the 2050 calculator This tool is an interface to the first version of a calculator to help policymakers, the energy industry and the public understand these choices. This work is not about choosing a pathway out to 2050 today - such a task would not be feasible given the major unknowns and timeframe involved. However, this work enables us to better manage some significant long-term uncertainties and helps us to avoid making long-term decisions that are incompatible with meeting our 2050 emissions target."
Hans De Keulenaer

100% Renewables by 2050 - or earlier? (environmentalresearchweb blog) - environmentalre... - 1 views

  • Europe could switch to low carbon sources of electricity, with up to 100% coming from renewables by 2050, without risking energy reliability or pushing up energy bills, according to a major new study, Roadmap 2050: a practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe, developed by the European Climate Foundation (ECF) with contributions from McKinsey, KEMA, Imperial College London and Oxford Economics. It says that a transition to a low- or zero-carbon power supply based on high levels of renewable energy would have no impact on reliability, and would have little overall impact on the cost of generating electricity.
Hans De Keulenaer

Research Recap » Blog Archive » Solar Power Could Supply 69% of US Electricit... - 0 views

    A massive switch from coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power plants to solar power plants could supply 69% of the US's electricity and 35% of its total energy by 2050, according to Scientific American. However, $420 billion in subsidies from 2011 to 2050 would be required to fund the infrastructure and make it cost-competitive, the publication says in "A Solar Grand Plan" presented in its January 2008 issue.
Colin Bennett

How to Make 25% of World's Electricity from Solar Energy by 2050 - 0 views

  • The International Energy Agency (IEA) presented two new solar energy analyses in Valencia, Spain this week, a Solar Photovoltaic Energy Technology Roadmap and a Concentrating Solar Power Technology Roadmap. The key finding from these is that 20-25% of global electricity production could be from solar energy by 2050.
Phil Slade

Europe could create a 100% renewable electricity supply by 2050 - PIK Research Portal - 1 views

    " Renewable energy sources could be used at scale by 2050 if supported by an efficient European transmission grid and a single European power market united with similar grids and markets in North Africa. This is shown in a new report released last week by PricewaterhouseCoopers. A group of energy and climate experts from the company in collaboration with researchers of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the European Climate Forum (ECF) have examined possible transformation paths for the European and North African power sector. A transformation of the power sector based on one hundred percent renewables would address energy security and supply concerns while decarbonising electricity generation and at the same time reduce energy poverty, the report says."
Hans De Keulenaer

Denmark Passes Legislation: 100% Renewable Energy by 2050! - 5 views

  • Denmark's Parliament has passed the most ambitious green economy plan in the world: it will generate 35% of its energy from renewable energy by 2020 and 100% by 2050.
Energy Net

Peak Energy: Smart metering is essential to hit cardon emission targets - 0 views

    Smart Meters are hitting the news with ever increasing frequency (which means I really should pull my finger out and finish off a detailed post on them one day) - The (UK) Telegraph reports that "Smart metering alone will not make Britain meet its 2050 carbon emission targets. But the necessary cuts will not be made without them." - Smart metering is essential to hit 2050 cardon emission targets.
Colin Bennett

European electricity companies pledge to be carbon neutral by 2050 - 0 views

    European electricity companies have pledged to achieve carbon-neutral power supply by 2050.
Hans De Keulenaer

Ecological Economics: Exclusively Renewable Energy by 2050: Germany Says Yes! - 0 views

  • Germany is looking to integrate wind, solar, and biofuel natural gas to supply 100% of its power generation needs by 2050 (40% by 2020). Germany plans to phase out both Nuclear and Coal-fired power generation.
    The problem is at least recognised, instead of declaring it a myth. But the video remains a concept. The numbers are not worked out, nor the economics. And while variability can be reduced by combining different renewables, nobody knows whether we will get it right 95, 99 or the current 99.9% of the time. 30 minutes of outage per year does not leave much margin for error.
Hans De Keulenaer

Green Car Congress: EPRI-NRDC Studies Highlight GHG and Air Quality Benefits of Plug-in... - 0 views

  • Widespread adoption of PHEVs could reduce GHG emissions from vehicles by more than 450 million metric tons annually in 2050—equivalent to removing 82.5 million passenger cars from the road. Cumulative GHG emissions reductions from 2010 to 2050 could reach 10.3 billion metric tons under the most aggressive scenarios for the development of a lower-carbon electrical infrastructure and PHEV penetration.
Hans De Keulenaer Rwanda: Country Wants Carbon Emissions Reduced By 40 Percent By 2050 (Pa... - 0 views

  • Rwanda will join the rest of Africa to urge developed countries to reduce their carbon emissions by 40 percent come 2050.
Hans De Keulenaer

PricewaterhouseCoopers Media Centre - 1 views

  • The study prepared by the European and international climate experts at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, the European Climate Forum, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis, examines the potential for powering Europe and North Africa with renewable electricity exclusively by 2050 and the opportunities this transformation to the power sector presents.  The study provides policy makers and business leaders with clear direction and a step wise approach on how to achieve the 2050 vision.
Hans De Keulenaer

European Climate Foundation - Roadmap 2050 - 1 views

  • The Roadmap 2050 project sets out the crucial role of a zero-carbon power sector to Europe’s long-term climate commitments and shows different pathways that can make this a reality delivering economic and energy security goals. The Roadmap is based on extensive technical, economic and policy analyses conducted by five leading consultancies: Imperial College London, KEMA, McKinsey & Company, Oxford Economics, and the Office of Metropolitan Architecture, in addition to the involvement of utilities, transmission operators and NGOs.
Hans De Keulenaer

Energy and Environment Monitor: Summary of EPRI Prism/MERGE 2009 Analyses Report: EPRI ... - 0 views

  • In 2007, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) released its first “Prism” model and Model for Estimating the Regional and Global Effects of Greenhouse Gas Reductions (MERGE). 
  • EPRI updated both analyses in 2009 to reflect economic and technological changes that have the potential to affect projected emissions and the technologies to address them. 
  • The Prism analysis projects that by 2030, 60% of the total U.S. generation mix would consist of low- or non-CO2 emitting generation
Glycon Garcia / Home UK / UK - Winds of change blow across the global market - 0 views

  • Wind power is the most mature of mainstream renewable energy technologies and, if the world's electricity generation is to be made cleaner, it must play a large part.The International Energy Agency estimates that, if global greenhouse gas emissions are to be halved by 2050, as scientists say is necessary, then wind must represent about 17 per cent of worldwide power generation by that date.
    Wind power is the most mature of mainstream renewable energy technologies and, if the world's electricity generation is to be made cleaner, it must play a large part. The International Energy Agency estimates that, if global greenhouse gas emissions are to be halved by 2050, as scientists say is necessary, then wind must represent about 17 per cent of worldwide power generation by that date.
Hans De Keulenaer

Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050 « Free Book Bank - 0 views

  • Transport is one of the major global consumers of energy and therefore has an important role in meeting the primary objective of the World Energy Council, sustainable energy for all.
  • Sustainability is measured in terms of the 3 A’s criteria of accessibility, availability and acceptability, differentiating between the relative importance of different regions.
    • Hans De Keulenaer
      An alternative definition of sustainability for consideration.
Hans De Keulenaer

The world in 2050 | Leonardo ENERGY - 0 views

  • In their sustainability report 2006, Shell gives a few key figures to paint a picture of the world in 2050 and to compare it with the world we are living in today and the world as it was in 1907 when Shell was founded.
    Shell's view on the future from its latest sustainability report
Hans De Keulenaer

Overinvesting in energy efficiency, on purpose | Grist - 0 views

  • It’s worth noting that there are other views of the situation. Late last week I talked with University of Toronto professor Danny Harvey, author of a set of comprehensive textbooks on energy demand and clean energy supply. He says Baksi/Green’s conclusion on energy intensity is “complete nonsense.” He’s done some detailed modeling and believes that “between now and 2050, we can average 3 or 4 percent [decline in global energy intensity] a year,” and thereby reducing total energy use. The efforts required would be heroic, but within the realm of possibility.
Colin Bennett

Efficiency key to making Denmark fossil fuel-free by 2050, says report - 0 views

  • In this ‘green’ future, electricity will comprise 40-70% of energy consumption, up from around 20% now. And a large part of this electricity will come from offshore wind farms, which the report highlights as an economically viable option for Denmark.The Klimakomissionen says many more turbines will have to be erected to cover up to half of the country’s energy consumption.Meanwhile, the energy system will have to become much more flexible and intelligent to cope with the fluctuation of wind energy.Technologies such as smart electricity meters, time-controlled recharging for electric cars and heat pumps in combination with heat storage systems will be crucial to the new energy order.The report says that biomass will play an important role as back up to wind power and to supply heating for homes, along with solar heating, geothermal energy and heat pumps, which will serve district heating systems.
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