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"Frankly, I was expecting that we'd see large temperature increases later this century with higher greenhouse gas levels and global warming," Stanford climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh, who headed up the research, said in a prepared statement. "I did not expect to see anything this large within the next three decades."

Phytoplankton are microscopic marine organisms capable of photosynthesis, just like terrestrial plants. They float in the upper layers of the oceans, provide much of the oxygen we breathe and account for about half of the total organic matter on Earth. A 40 per cent decline would represent a massive change to the global biosphere."If this holds up, something really serious is underway and has been underway for decades. I've been trying to think of a biological change that's bigger than this and I can't think of one," said marine biologist Boris Worm of Canada's Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia. He said: "If real, it means that the marine ecosystem today looks very different to what it was a few decades ago and a lot of this change is happening way out in the open, blue ocean where we cannot see it. I'm concerned about this finding."The researchers studied phytoplankton records going back to 1899 when the measure of how much of the green chlorophyll pigment of phytoplankton was present in the upper ocean was monitored regularly. The scientists analysed about half a million measurements taken over the past century in 10 ocean regions, as well as measurements recorded by satellite.They found that phytoplankton had declined significantly in all but two of the ocean regions at an average global rate of about 1 per cent per year, most of which since the mid 20th Century. They found that this decline correlated with a corresponding rise in sea-surface temperatures – although they cannot prove that warmer oceans caused the decline.The study, published in the journal Nature, is the first analysis of its kind and deliberately used data gathered over such a long period of time to eliminate the sort of natural fluctuations in phytoplankton that are known to occur from one decade to the next due to normal oscillations in ocean temperatures, Dr Worm said. "Phytoplankton are a critical part of our planetary life support system. They produce half of the oxygen we breathe, draw down surface CO2 and ultimately support all of our fishes." he said.But some scientists have warned that the Dalhousie University study may not present a realistic picture of the true state of marine plantlife given that phytoplankton is subject to wide, natural fluctuations."Its an important observation and it's consistent with other observations, but the overall trend can be overinterpreted because of the masking effect of natural variations," said Manuel Barange of the Plymouth Marine Laboratory and a phytoplankton expert.

However, the Dalhousie scientists behind the three-year study said they have taken the natural oscillations of ocean temperatures into account and the overall conclusion of a 40 per cent decline in phytoplankton over the past century still holds true. "Phytoplankton are the basis of life in the oceans and are essential in maintaining the health of the oceans so we should be concerned about its decline."It's a very robust finding and we're very confident of it," said Daniel Boyce, the lead author of the study."Phytoplankton is the fuel on which marine ecosystems run. A decline of phytoplankton affects everything up the food chain, including humans," Dr Boyce said.

Phytoplankton is affected by the amount of nutrients the well up from the bottom of the oceans. In the North Atlantic phytoplankton "blooms" naturally in spring and autumn when ocean storms bring nutrients to the surface. One effect of rising sea temperatures has been to make the water column of some regions nearer the equator more stratified, with warmer water sitting on colder layers of water, making it more difficult for nutrients to reach the phytoplankton at the sea surface.Warmer seas in tropical regions are also known to have a direct effect on limiting the growth of phytoplankton.

Large-scale storm systems are the dominant weather phenomenon during the cold season in the United States. Although the analysis of these storms is complicated by a relatively short length of most observational records and by the highly variable nature of strong storms, some clear patterns have emerged.112 [Kunkel et al., 2008] Storm tracks have shifted northward over the last 50 years as evidenced by a decrease in the frequency of storms in mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, while high-latitude activity has increased. There is also evidence of an increase in the intensity of storms in both the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with greater confidence in the increases occurring in high latitudes.112 [Kunkel et al., 2008] The northward shift is projected to continue, and strong cold season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights.68 [Gutowski et al, 2008]

The northward shift in storm tracks is reflected in regional changes in the frequency of snowstorms. The South and lower Midwest saw reduced snowstorm frequency during the last century. In contrast, the Northeast and upper Midwest saw increases in snowstorms, although considerable decade-to-decade variations were present in all regions, influenced, for example, by the frequency of El Niño events.112 [Kunkel et al., 2008]

Then we have this apparently as yet unpublished research presented by Dr James Overland of the NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory at the recent International Polar Year Oslo Science Conference (IPY-OSC) where he was chairing “a session on polar climate feedbacks, amplification and teleconnections, including impacts on mid-latitudes.” “Cold and snowy winters will be the rule, rather than the exception,” says Dr James Overland…. Continued rapid loss of sea ice will be an important driver of major change in the world’s climate system in the years to come…. “While the emerging impact of greenhouse gases is an important factor in the changing Arctic, what was not fully recognised until now is that a combination of an unusual warm period due to natural variability, loss of sea ice reflectivity, ocean heat storage and changing wind patterns working together has disrupted the memory and stability of the Arctic climate system, resulting in greater ice loss than earlier climate models predicted,” says Dr Overland. “The exceptional cold and snowy winter of 2009-2010 in Europe, eastern Asia and eastern North America is connected to unique physical processes in the Arctic,” he says.

Even though these storms occurred during warmest winter on record, I think the best way to talk about it until Overland publishes his work is the way NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth did on NPR (audio here): RENEE MONTAGNE, host:  With snow blanketing much of the country, the topic of global warming has become the butt of jokes. Climate skeptics built an igloo in Washington, D.C. during last weeks storm and dedicated it to former Vice President Al Gore, who’s become the public face of climate change. There was also a YouTube video called “12 Inches of Global Warming” that showed snowplows driving through a blizzard.For scientists who study the climate, it’s all a bit much. As NPRs Christopher Joyce reports, they’re trying to dig out. CHRISTOPHER JOYCE: Snowed-in Washington is where much of the political debate over climate change happens. So it did not go unnoticed when a Washington think-tank that advocates climate action had to postpone a climate meeting last week because of inclement weather. That kind of irony isnt lost on climate scientists. Most don’t see a contradiction between a warming world and lots of snow. Heres Kevin Trenberth, a prominent climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado. Mr. KEVIN TRENBERTH (Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research): The fact that the oceans are warmer now than they were, say, 30 years ago, means there’s about, on average, 4 percent more water vapor lurking around over the oceans than there was, say, in the 1970s. JOYCE: Warmer water means more water vapor rises up into the air. And what goes up, must come down. Mr. TRENBERTH: So one of the consequences of a warming ocean near a coastline like the East Coast and Washington, D.C., for instance, is that you can get dumped on with more snow, partly as a consequence of global warming. JOYCE: And Trenberth notes that you don’t need very cold temperatures to get big snow. In fact, when the mercury drops too low, it may be too cold to snow. There’s something else fiddling with the weather this year: a strong El Nino. That’s the weather pattern that, every few years, raises itself up out of the western Pacific Ocean and blows east to the Americas. It brings heavy rains and storms to California and the South and Southeast. It also pushes high-altitude jet streams farther south, which brings colder air with them. Trenberth also says El Nino can lock in weather patterns like a meteorological highway, so that storms keep coming down the same track. True, those storms have been big ones – record breakers. But meteorologist Jeff Masters, with the Web site Weather Underground, says it’s average temperatures — not snowfall — that really measure climate change. There’s more water vapor lurking around the oceans, and whatever the proximate cause of any one snow storm, there is little doubt that global warming means the overwhelming majority of East Coast storms will be sweeping in more moisture and dumping it on the ground.

According to Beijing Climate Center, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Jilin had their warmest June since national records began in 1951.

The worldwide ocean surface temperature was 0.97°F (0.54°C) above the 20th century average of 61.5°F (16.4°C), which was the fourth warmest June on record. The warmth was most pronounced in the Atlantic Ocean.

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for April-June 2010 was 1.26°F (0.70°C) above the 20th century average—the warmest April-June period on record. For the year-to-date, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature of 57.5°F (14.2°C) was the warmest January-June period. This value is 1.22°F (0.68°C) above the 20th century average.

"There has not been a seasonal forecast of 23 storms put out for this country before," said Holland.  Like forecasters from NOAA and elsewhere (see More pre-season predictions of a very active Atlantic hurricane season, at the WunderBlog for a summary of forecasts), Holland cited high SSTs as a principal factor underlying his assessment. The SSTs during the first month of the hurricane season did nothing to diminish concerns.  As the figure below indicates, high SSTs characterized the tropical Atlantic in June, with many areas again seeing record high temperatures for the month. 

"So what’s happening?" asks Holland.  "Well it’s a combination of global warming and natural variability."

This is consistent with research results published in Geophysical Research Letters on 29 April 2010.  In Is the basin-wide warming in the North Atlantic Ocean related to atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming?, Chunzai Wang and Shenfu Dong of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, conclude that "both global warming and AMO [Atlantic multidecadal oscillation] variability make a contribution to the recent basin-wide warming in the North Atlantic and their relative contribution is approximately equal."

Hampton Roads in southeastern Virginia is unusually vulnerable. It is flat, and its land is sinking. It has nearly 2 million residents. It is home to popular beaches, waterfront homes, military bases, a huge tourism industry and ecologically valuable marshes.

"Hampton Roads is one of the most vulnerable regions in the United States to sea-level rise, in terms of population and assets at risk," said Eric J. Walberg, a former staff member for the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission.

Rising sea levels around the world are attributed to warming. When water warms, it expands. Melting polar ice sheets also raise the waters. In Virginia, sea levels are rising faster than the global average because the land is sinking

During the last ice age thousands of years ago, the weight of glaciers pushed down land in what is now the northern U.S. When those glaciers receded, that northern land began to rise, and land here started sinking, as if Virginia were on the end of a see-saw after the other rider got off. Throughout most of the 20th century, the sea level in southeastern Virginia rose about twelve-hundredths of an inch a year -- or 12 inches per century. But over the past two decades or so, the rate appears to have doubled in places. About half of that increase seems to be due to the sinking of land, and half to global warming, said Carl Hershner, a professor at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. "And the forecast -- this is the scary part -- is for that acceleration to rise," Hershner said. Scientists say the future increases will be caused almost entirely by climate change. "We will still be sinking," Hershner said, "but that will be a smaller and smaller fraction of the change we experience."

Many of the piers at the Norfolk Naval Station were built around World War II. During storms or even higher-than-normal tides in recent years, the water began to rise so high that it flooded low-lying areas of the base and covered utility lines, including high-voltage electrical cables, suspended beneath the old piers. That meant frequent losses of power and other services to the base's ships. "Sea-level rise was having a negative impact on the readiness of the combat forces at the base," said Joe Bouchard, the base's commander from 2000 to 2003.

The Navy was already planning a multimillion-dollar project to replace the aging piers at Norfolk, the world's largest naval base. To cope with the rising waters, Navy engineers designed double-deck piers with the utility lines suspended from the main, upper deck, about 20 feet above sea level.

Cmdr. Wendy L. Snyder, a Defense Department spokeswoman, acknowledged that flooding occurs at the Norfolk and Langley bases. The department is concerned and is studying the problem, she said. "We are going to assess the impacts of climate change for all of our installations." As for possible base closings in Hampton Roads, Snyder said she did not want to speculate.

A powerful storm hit Virginia's coast in 1933. But the less-powerful Hurricane Isabel in 2003 -- which became a tropical storm about the time it entered Virginia -- caused similar flooding because the sea level by then had risen 9 to 10 inches. Isabel gained extra destructive power by sending its storm surge inland on higher waters, Hershner said. Isabel caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. On top of all that, scientists predict global warming will cause more-powerful storms in coming decades. And in Hampton Roads, more and more people are building near the shore, putting themselves and their property at risk.

Low-lying parts of Hampton Roads flood now from fairly routine storms and tides, said Skip Stiles, director of Wetlands Watch, a Norfolk environmental group. "Anywhere you go, people have stories" about how the water comes up higher than it used to.

This is compared to 3 billion to 5 billion people who would be at risk without climate change.

Viral development is faster at warmer temperatures and mosquitoes survive for longer, according to Paul Epstein, associate director of the center for health and the global environment at Harvard Medical School.

"As things continue to warm, there'll be more breaches of our shores by tropical illnesses," Epstein said.

SPC issued a "moderate risk" of severe storms and tornadoes a total of 5 times, in just 30 days. To put that in perspective between 2008 and early 2010 SPC had issued 5 moderate risks. So we endured (in one month) what had previously taken over 2 years to achieve in terms of elevated weather risk.

Soak up today's blue sky and 80-degree highs, because the latest NAM/WRF model (probably the most accurate & reliable simulation of future weather) is printing out nearly 4" of rain for the metro area Thursday. If that verifies it would be nearly a MONTH'S worth of rain in less than 12 hours.

Finally, the latest from NOAA: June was the warmest month, worldwide, since accurate records were first started in 1880. It was the 4th consecutive month of record warmth around the world, the 304 month in a row where global temperatures were above the 20th century average. 2010 is still on track to be the warmest year (globally) on record, even warmer than 2005. More coincidences? Possibly, but at some point you look at all these trends, scratch your head, and wonder if maybe those climate scientists aren't right (a recent poll of published, active PhD climate scientists showed that 97% of them believe the earth's atmosphere is warming, and man has at least some role in this warming trend). That's good enough for me - should be good enough for all of us mere mortals (who don't study the earth's climate 18 hours/day). The professional (paid) deniers and their "institutes" will come up with more excuses and refutations, citing a global conspiracy among climate scientists. Don't believe them, any more than you'd believe a tobacco lobbyist denying the ill effects of smoking and the link between tobacco and cancer. The trends are apparent to anyone taking the time to really look at the science. No one heat wave, month or year proves anything, but what we have here is a steady trickle of evidence, a gradual accumulation of coincidences that can no longer be denied. Melting glaciers, thinning arctic ice, rising sea levels, an uptick in drought and 1-in-500 year floods are all symptoms. The earth's atmosphere is running a mild fever. The question: do we believe the doctors and treat the patient now, or wait for those symptoms to worsen? It's not ideology, it's not a political litmus test, it's not a "new religion." It's basic science.

When plant plankton plummet — like they do during El Nino climate cycles_ sea birds and marine mammals starve and die in huge numbers, experts said.

Worm said when the surface of the ocean gets warmer, the warm water at the top doesn't mix as easily with the cooler water below. That makes it tougher for the plant plankton which are light and often live near the ocean surface to get nutrients in deeper, cooler water. It also matches other global warming trends, with the biggest effects at the poles and around the equator.

Many fishermen switched to lobster as winter flounder, a cold-water fish once abundant in fishing boat holds, declined. But lobster stocks are stressed in some areas now. Biologists on a multi-state Fisheries Commission committee have found that warmer waters, disease and fishing have depleted lobster stocks, and they recently recommended a five-year ban on lobstering from Cape Cod to Virginia.

"One of the grim realities of global warming is that it is bringing change to fisheries. There are going to be regime changes in the oceans and management is going to have to adapt to that,"

Greg Walinski believes he has seen first-hand the workings of warmer waters on fish stock. The 53-year-old Cape Cod fisherman used to hunt for large bluefin tuna. "In the '80s and '90s we would get 60 to 80 giant bluefin in a season," he said. "But we started to see less and less. It got to a point where it wasn't even worth going out. Most of the big fish are up in Canada," he said. "We get the little bluefin that used to be further south."

He switched to cod, but in what seems to be a repeat of the pattern, Walinski said he finds himself chasing the fish further and further out. He now travels 120 miles in a 35-foot boat - an arduous and somewhat dangerous commute - to reach Georges Bank for codfish.

regulators say they have seen little evidence of a similar rebound in cod on the George's Bank, and some other cold-water species, like winter flounder and pollock, remain low.