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In a Congressional briefing on 30 June 2010, hurricane expert Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) said the potential for a disastrous 2010 hurricane season reflects not just natural variability but also climate change.  He explained that record high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic were one of the principal factors behind the dire forecast, and that rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may account for roughly half of the anomalous warmth.  He warned that "we’re looking at potentially a doubling of major hurricanes in the next 20 to 30 years" as a result of global warming.  Holland, Director of NCAR's Earth System Laboratory, made his remarks as a member of a panel on Hurricanes and Oil Will Mix: Managing Risk Now. 

A month before the panel's briefing, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued on 27 May its 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. NOAA said there was a 70% chance that the Atlantic hurricane season would see 14-23 named storms, 8-14 hurricanes, and 3-7 major hurricanes.

Among the factors underlying its outlook, NOAA cited warm Atlantic Ocean surface waters, which in May were for the fourth month in a row at record high temperatures for the month:  "Sea surface temperatures [SSTs] are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region."

CoreLogic® Finds More Than $234 Billion in Residential Storm Surge Exposure in 13 U.S. Cities

New research from the May hurricane conference of the American Meteorological Society sheds new light just ahead of the start of the season June first.

Greg Holland of NCAR looked at the distribution of the strongest hurricanes over time by using a mathematical description of the historical hurricane data. His analysis showed that during the period 1995 - 2008, we probably had about a 30% increase in Category 5 storms in the Atlantic, and an 18% increase in Category 4 hurricanes. Using a climate model, he predicted that by the years 2045 - 2055, we should see a 60% increase in Cat 5s, 32% increase in Cat 4s, and 16% increase in Cat 3s in the Atlantic.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

800 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010

CELIA IS TIED FOR THE STRONGEST EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD IN JUNE...WITH AVA OF 1973.

In Guatemala, the people first realized they were experiencing climate change after Hurricane Mitch left 12,000 people dead in 1998, says Naty Atz Sunc, the general co-ordinator for the Association of Community Development and Promotion (CEIBA). Since then Tropical Storm Stan in 2005 and Agatha in May have left thousands of people in temporary shelters. Although, there were storms before, what Guatemala is experiencing is much more extreme now, Sunc explained with Rachel Warden from Kairos translating. There has been devastating loss of crops, including grains and entire families have been displaced because of landslides. “For the first time, we’ve experienced hail in Guatemala,” she said.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new recordSea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively.

POQUOSON -- Hurricane Isabel flooded Sandy Firman's house in 2003, and now routine storms drive water into the roads and marshes close by. Several homes in this low-lying city, including Firman's, have been elevated about 10 feet to keep them above the ever-closer waters. "We used to not have it like that," said Firman, who has lived in Poquoson all of his 46 years. "But something has changed around here." One big thing that has changed is the sea level, which is rising -- an increase blamed on global warming.

In southeastern Virginia, the rising sea is a problem now, and scientists expect it to get much, much worse.

The sea level in this region has been rising about a foot a century -- the highest rate on the East Coast. Scientists project a potentially devastating rise of 2 to 7 feet by 2100.

he NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook indicates that there is a high potential for coral bleaching in the Caribbean in 2010. The 2009-2010 El Niño ended in May 2010. However, the Caribbean typically experiences elevated temperature during the second year of an El Niño event. Since the beginning of 2010, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in most of the Caribbean region and tropical Atlantic Ocean have been observed more than 1ºC above the normal (see the SST anomaly figure below), based on Coral Reef Watch's climatology. This pattern is similar to, but has persisted much longer than, what occurred during the same time period in 2005.

The NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook indicates that there is a high potential for coral bleaching in the Caribbean in 2010. The 2009-2010 El Niño ended in May 2010. However, the Caribbean usually experiences elevated temperature during the year following an El Niño event. Since the beginning of 2010, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in most of the Caribbean region and tropical Atlantic Ocean have been observed more than 1ºC above the normal (see the SST anomaly figure above), based on Coral Reef Watch's climatology. This pattern is similar to, but has persisted much longer than, what occurred during the same time period in 2005. In 2005, a record breaking mass coral bleaching event in the Caribbean along with the most active hurricane season on record in the Atlantic Ocean followed such a pre-bleaching season SST anomaly pattern. The high SST anomaly in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Keys began in mid-May after a dramatic increase in SST in early May (near 2ºC increase over several days at some locations) after an extreme cold outbreak earlier this year in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida area. This preheating increases the likelihood that temperatures will exceed bleaching thresholds during the coming season. The pattern and intensity of early-season SST anomalies is similar to what was seen in 2005. The high potential for thermal stress above levels required to cause bleaching as seen in the CRW bleaching outlook system indicates a high potential for significant bleaching in the Caribbean region for the 2010 bleaching season. In 2005, the active hurricane season greatly reduced the coral bleaching thermal stress in the Florida Keys and Gulf of Mexico. However, the lack of tropical cyclones around the Lesser Antilles did not allow storms to relieve much the thermal stress in the epicenter of the 2005 mass bleaching event.

Low level bleaching thermal stress has already been present in the Caribbean region. The stress started to appear at the beginning of May at the eastern end of the Caribbean. It now covers most of the southern Caribbean region. In the Caribbean, bleaching-level thermal stress usually does not appear across such a wide area this early in the year. The year of 2005 was an exception and showed the similar thermal stress pattern. Given that the record breaking mass coral bleaching event occurred in 2005, the development of this year's thermal stress in the Caribbean needs to be monitored closely.

A storm system that stagnated over the Lower Mississippi Valley on May 1st–2nd killed 29 people and flooded thousands of homes and businesses. The storms spawned dozens of tornadoes and brought record amounts of rain to numerous locations in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Preliminary reports indicated that more than 200 daily, monthly, and all-time precipitation records were broken across the three states. According to the National Weather Service, Bowling Green, Kentucky set an all-time daily rainfall record for May of 4.75 inches (120 mm) on May 1st. However, that record was broken the following day as 4.92 inches (125 mm) of precipitation was recorded. The combined total of 9.67 inches (246 mm) was the greatest two-day rainfall total for the area since records began in 1870. In Nashville, the most rain ever recorded in a single calendar day fell on May 2nd—7.25 inches (184 mm)—making the precipitation received on the previous day (6.32 inches or 161 mm) the third-greatest rainfall total in Nashville's history. This led to a record two-day total of 13.53 inches (344 mm), more than doubling the previous record of 6.68 inches (170 mm) received from the remnants of Hurricane Fredrick on September 13th–14th, 1979. By just the second day of the month, Nashville had already recorded its wettest May on record and fifth wettest month ever. The torrential rains caused several rivers to crest at record levels. According to a local U.S. Geological Survey official, the flows on various rivers in the Nashville area exceeded those from the historic 1927 and 1975 floods. The Cumberland River in Nashville crested at 51.85 feet (15.80 m) on May 3rd, nearly 12 feet (3.7 m) above its flood stage—the highest level since an early 1960s flood control project was built (Source: AP). The Duck River in Centerville, Tennessee crested at 47.5 feet (14.4 m), smashing the old record of 37 feet (11.7 m) set in 1983. Fifty-two of Tennesse's 95 counties were declared disaster areas by the governor, as were 73 of Kentucky's 120 counties. Preliminary estimates placed damages at more than 1.5 billion U.S. dollars

Mangroves that line the Everglades and Florida Bay are migrating landward in response to coastal saltwater intrusion, but this migration is only predicted to keep pace with sea level rise that is less than 1 ft. (0.3 m) over the next century (NPS 2009).

The Florida Keys are already experiencing effects of storm surge, overwash, and salinity encroachment, and increasing sea level rise could reduce the amount of habitat available to endangered species such as the Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium) and silver rice rats (Oryzomys palustris natator). An increase in intensity of storms could further contribute to loss of habitat, destruction of natural barriers, and direct mortality of wildlife. For example, Hurricane Andrew, a category 5 storm, destroyed over 80% of the mangroves in the vicinity of Highland Beach in Everglades National Park (Smith et al. 1994).