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POQUOSON -- Hurricane Isabel flooded Sandy Firman's house in 2003, and now routine storms drive water into the roads and marshes close by. Several homes in this low-lying city, including Firman's, have been elevated about 10 feet to keep them above the ever-closer waters. "We used to not have it like that," said Firman, who has lived in Poquoson all of his 46 years. "But something has changed around here." One big thing that has changed is the sea level, which is rising -- an increase blamed on global warming.

In southeastern Virginia, the rising sea is a problem now, and scientists expect it to get much, much worse.

During the last ice age thousands of years ago, the weight of glaciers pushed down land in what is now the northern U.S. When those glaciers receded, that northern land began to rise, and land here started sinking, as if Virginia were on the end of a see-saw after the other rider got off. Throughout most of the 20th century, the sea level in southeastern Virginia rose about twelve-hundredths of an inch a year -- or 12 inches per century. But over the past two decades or so, the rate appears to have doubled in places. About half of that increase seems to be due to the sinking of land, and half to global warming, said Carl Hershner, a professor at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. "And the forecast -- this is the scary part -- is for that acceleration to rise," Hershner said. Scientists say the future increases will be caused almost entirely by climate change. "We will still be sinking," Hershner said, "but that will be a smaller and smaller fraction of the change we experience."

Sea-Le

Sea-Level Rise in Indian Ocean Observed

A new study concludes that Indian Ocean sea levels are rising unevenly and threatening residents in some densely populated coastal areas and islands. The study, led by scientists at the University of Colorado (CU) at Boulder and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., finds that the sea-level rise is at least partly a result of climate change.

islands are coping with sea-level change, with higher waves and water depth supplying sand and gravel from coral reefs.

study shows the islands are coping with sea-level change, with higher waves and water depth supplying sand and gravel from coral reefs.

"In other words, they (the islands) are slowly moving ... migrating across their reef platforms," he said. "As the sea-level conditions and wave conditions are changing, the islands are adjusting to that."

Another community likewise affected equally, if not more, by climate change is the one which inhabits the Tropics in the Sunderban forests. Straddling the massive delta of Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna on the Bay of Bengal spreading across India and Bangladesh, Sunderbans are spread over an area of more than 10000 square kilometres. More than half of it has the world’s largest mangrove forests which have been declared as two different World Heritage Sites for the two countries. The forests are a

Another community likewise affected equally, if not more, by climate change is the one which inhabits the Tropics in the Sunderban forests. Straddling the massive delta of Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna on the Bay of Bengal spreading across India and Bangladesh, Sunderbans are spread over an area of more than 10000 square kilometres. More than half of it has the world’s largest mangrove forests which have been declared as two different World Heritage Sites for the two countries. The forests are also home to a substantial population of the threatened Royal Bengal Tiger.

A 2007 report of the United Nations Economic and Social Council (UNESCO) said that a 45 centimetres anthropogenic rise in the sea level by the end of the current century is likely to destroy 75 per cent of the Sunderban mangroves within the current century. However, certain inhabited islands have already disappeared having been overtaken by the sea. Among them are Lohachara and the New Moore islands. Another island, Ghoramara, has lost around half of its landmass turning more than half of the Island’s population of 12000 into climate refugees. They have all fled – some to the mainland and others elsewhere in Sunderbans. The remaining have had to give up cultivation in the fertile soil or gathering honey from the jungle and have taken to fishing. Researchers have heard the same story retold everywhere in the Sunderbans. As the sea-water comes in floods it destroys the crops, the soil takes on the sea’s salinity and renders it unproductive. Moving away and looking for a safer place is the only alternative to cope with the rising sea. Of late, such movements have, however, had to become devastatingly more frequent, stressing the once-simple rhythm of life of these poor people.

Mangroves that line the Everglades and Florida Bay are migrating landward in response to coastal saltwater intrusion, but this migration is only predicted to keep pace with sea level rise that is less than 1 ft. (0.3 m) over the next century (NPS 2009).

The Florida Keys are already experiencing effects of storm surge, overwash, and salinity encroachment, and increasing sea level rise could reduce the amount of habitat available to endangered species such as the Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium) and silver rice rats (Oryzomys palustris natator). An increase in intensity of storms could further contribute to loss of habitat, destruction of natural barriers, and direct mortality of wildlife. For example, Hurricane Andrew, a category 5 storm, destroyed over 80% of the mangroves in the vicinity of Highland Beach in Everglades National Park (Smith et al. 1994).

Rising seas from global warming, coming after years of coral reef destruction, are forcing thousands of indigenous Panamanians to leave their ancestral homes on low-lying Caribbean islands. Seasonal winds, storms and high tides combine to submerge the tiny islands, crowded with huts of yellow cane and faded palm fronds, leaving them ankle-deep in emerald water for days on end.Pablo Preciado, leader of the island of Carti Sugdub, remembers that in his childhood floods were rare, brief and barely wetted his toes. "Now it's something else. It's serious," he said.

The increase of a few inches in flood depth is consistent with a global sea level rise over Preciado's 64 years of life and has been made worse by coral mining by the islanders that reduced a buffer against the waves.Carti Sugdub is one of a handful of islands in an archipelago off Panama's northeastern coast, where the government says climate change threatens the livelihood of nearly half of the 32,000 semi-autonomous Kuna people.The 2,000 inhabitants of Carti Sugdub plan to move to coastal areas within the Kuna's autonomous territory on the Panama mainland. They are eyeing foothills a half-hour walk from the swampy beach areas."The water level is rising. The move is imminent," said Preciado, who has been leading a group of villagers clearing tropical forest for the new settlement.

"This is no longer about a scientist saying that climate change and the change in sea level will flood (a people) and affect them," said Hector Guzman, a marine biologist and coral specialist at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama. "This is happening now in the real world."

Greenland's ice is melting so quickly the land underneath is rising at an accelerated pace. Researchers said some coastal areas are rising by nearly 1 inch per year

"It's been known for several years that climate change is contributing to the melting of Greenland's ice sheet," Professor Tim Dixon, who led the study, said. "What's surprising, and a bit worrisome, is the ice is melting so fast that we can actually see the land uplift in response. Even more surprising, the rise seems to be accelerating, implying melting is accelerating."

In an interview during the 15th anniversary of normalization of relations between Vietnam and the United States by People's Army newspaper, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Pham Binh Minh said that the two countries should continue to improve relations after having overcome many obstacles and put aside the past.

Both countries have cooperated regarding rising sea levels caused by global warming, clearing the bombs and mines left over by the war and handling the issues caused by the consequences of Agent Orange.

From Africa to the Himalayas, everyone's worried about global warming's potential to drive world conflict. But what about the disputes it will solve? A long-running argument between India and Bangladesh over a small island in the Bay of Bengal has just been resolved: the island's not there anymore: 

New Moore Island [also known as South Talpatti] in the Sunderbans has been completely submerged, said oceanographer Sugata Hazra, a professor at Jadavpur University in Calcutta. Its disappearance has been confirmed by satellite imagery and sea patrols, he said. "What these two countries could not achieve from years of talking, has been resolved by global warming," said Hazra.

The 2009 State of the Climate report released today draws on data for 10 key climate indicators that all point to the same finding: the scientific evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable. More than 300 scientists from 160 research groups in 48 countries contributed to the report, which confirms that the past decade was the warmest on record and that the Earth has been growing warmer over the last 50 years. Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, the report defines 10 measurable planet-wide features used to gauge global temperature changes. The relative movement of each of these indicators proves consistent with a warming world. Seven indicators are rising: air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, air temperature over oceans, sea level, ocean heat, humidity and tropospheric temperature in the “active-weather” layer of the atmosphere closest to the Earth’s surface. Three indicators are declining: Arctic sea ice, glaciers and spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere.

“For the first time, and in a single compelling comparison, the analysis brings together multiple observational records from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the ocean,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The records come from many institutions worldwide. They use data collected from diverse sources, including satellites, weather balloons, weather stations, ships, buoys and field surveys. These independently produced lines of evidence all point to the same conclusion: our planet is warming,”

Hot summers (and balmier winters) may simply be the new normal, thanks to carbon dioxide lingering in the atmosphere for centuries. This trend reaches back further than a couple of years. There have been exactly zero months, since February 1985, with average temperatures below those for the entire 20th century. (And those numbers are not as dramatic as they could be, because the last 15 years of the 20th century included in this period raised its average temperature, thereby lessening the century-long heat differential.) That streak—304 months and counting—was certainly not broken in June 2010, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Last month saw average global surface temperatures 0.68 degree Celsius warmer than the 20th-century average of 15.5 degrees C for June—making it the warmest June at ground level since record-keeping began in 1880.

Not only that, June continued another streak—this year, it was the fourth warmest month on record in a row globally, with average combined land and sea surface temperatures for the period at 16.2 degrees C. The high heat in much of Asia and Europe as well as North and South America more than counterbalanced some local cooling in southern China, Scandinavia and the northwestern U.S.—putting 2010 on track to surpass 2005 as the warmest year on record. Even in the higher reaches of the atmosphere—where cooling of the upper levels generally continues thanks to climate change below—June was the second warmest month since satellite record-keeping began in 1978, trailing only 1998. "Warmer than average global temperatures have become the new normal," says Jay Lawrimore, chief of climate analysis at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, which tracks these numbers. "The global temperature has increased more than 1 degree Fahrenheit [0.7 degree C] since 1900 and the rate of warming since the late 1970s has been about three times greater than the century-scale trend."

All this heat comes at a time when the sun—despite a recent uptick in solar storm activity, much of it associated with sunspots, since late 2008—continues to pump out slightly less energy. This diminished solar radiation should be promoting a slight cooling but is apparently outweighed by the ongoing accumulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, as scientists have predicted for more than a century. Of course year to year variations in weather cannot be conclusively tied to climate change, which is best measured by a multiyear trend, such as the long-term trend of warming into which this year fits—2000 to 2010 is already the warmest decade since records have been kept and the 10 warmest average annual surface temperatures have all occurred in the past 15 years.

while weather patterns are some of the most visible indicators of climate change, we are able to look at other patterns in the ecosystem as equally important measurements.  Among these patterns are jellyfish blooms, which are proliferating at an incredible pace. 

There are a number of factors contributing to the increase of jellyfish blooms, most of which are linked to global warming.  Jellyfish are thriving due to warmer and saltier waters as well as an increase in plankton growth.  In addition, overfishing has created a niche for jellyfish to exploit.  In years before predators were consuming much more of the ocean’s nutrients.  Now however, there is less competition leaving more for jellyfish.  This is also the case with agricultural runoff, where jellyfish are able to capitalize on the organisms feeding on the bacteria.  The current trend in climate change shows that the ice cover is melting much later in the spring, spawning more rapid and increased amounts of plankton growth.  There are various theories based on this evidence, but perhaps the strongest supports the idea that increased sunlight is favorable for the plankton.  This is especially true in colder regions such as the Bearing Sea, where scientists and fisherman alike have noticed drastic increases in jellyfish blooms.  But despite recent awareness, population control will only be a reality once the global climate patterns stabilize. For most, summer draughts mean hot days and dry gardens.  For jellyfish, however, it means saltier waters.  As rain becomes less frequent there is less fresh water entering the ocean.  Although it’s not the case with all jellyfish, most will benefit from a higher salt content.  This also relates to other predators and fish species, which are less tolerant of the salt increase and will often move from the coast into deeper, less salty waters.  As the ocean gets warmer and the water level rises, the jellyfish survival rate also goes up.  It creates the right conditions for jellyfish blooms to prosper, which results in a longer span of migration.  Now there are jellyfish species that are being labeled invasive.  Beachgoers have to swim with a new element of caution, unable to know which new species has moved in, and which has left. 

Thursday Flood Risk (and the most severe 30 days in Minnesota history?)

Paul's Star Tribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

we just lived through an incredible 30-day period. According to the local National Weather Service Office in Chanhassen we experienced 395 severe storms between June 17 and July 17. That compares to 120 severe storms in all of 2009! So in a mere 30 days we saw more than 3 TIMES more severe weather than we did all of last year.

The Jakobshavn Isbrae glacier, one of the largest glaciers in Greenland, swiftly lost a 2.7-square mile chunk of ice between July 6 and 7, NASA announced late last week. The ice loss pushed the point where the glacier meets the ocean, known as the "calving front," nearly one mile farther inland in a single day. According to the space agency, the new calving front location is the farthest inland on record.

The Jakobshavn Isbrae is what is known as an outlet glacier, which the National Snow and Ice Data Center defines as "a valley glacier which drains an inland ice sheet or ice cap and flows through a gap in peripheral mountains." In other words, it serves as a drainage pipe from the land ice into the ocean. According to NASA, the Jakobshavn Isbrae, which is located in western Greenland at about 69 degrees north latitude, is the largest outlet glacier in Greenland, draining 6.5 percent of Greenland's ice sheet area.

NASA reports that "as much as 10 percent of all ice lost from Greenland is coming through Jakobshavn, which is also believed to be the single largest contributor to sea level rise in the northern hemisphere."