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Hunter Cutting

South China devastated by landslides and flooding, precipitation three times normal - 0 views

  • HEAVY RAIN and deadly landslides have left 132 people dead and scores missing in southern China, authorities said yesterday, and over a million residents have been evacuated to safety. More storms are forecast and the death toll is expected to rise.More than 10 million people in south China’s nine provinces have been affected by severe floods, the ministry of water resources said, with power cuts, collapsed reservoirs and damage to roads also taking their toll.
  • Flooding is an annual event in China along the banks of the Yangtze river, which divides north and south China, and the Pearl river delta, which forms the focus of China’s economic powerhouse in Guangdong province. But this year’s floods have been heavier than usual and follow an intense period of drought in the region in the south and eastern seaboard, which left millions without drinking water and destroyed more than 12 million acres of crops.
  • The intense rainstorms started in mid-June in the provinces, which include Fujian, Jiangxi and Hunan, and the state-run CCTV station broadcast footage of rescues by boat and helicopter as the People’s Liberation Army rescue teams arrived at the site.
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  • The havoc has brought total economic losses in the nine provinces to 14.5 billion yuan (€1.7 billion), and affected 535,500 hectares of crops, further blighting food supply in the region. The conditions have also led to the collapse of 68,000 houses.
  • The meteorological bureau was forecasting more thunderstorms overnight and it was expecting rainfall of 100-180 millimetres in many areas, rising to over 200 millimetres in others.
  • “The scope and intensity of the rain have increased,” the office said on its website yesterday.This is effectively three times the usual level of rain in the region.Climate change has meant that each year the flooding gets worse, while the droughts are also worsening.
Hunter Cutting

Big snow storms not inconsistent with - and may be amplified by - a warming planet - 0 views

  • there was a detailed study of “the relationships of the storm frequencies to seasonal temperature and precipitation conditions” for the years “1901–2000 using data from 1222 stations across the United States.”  The 2006 study, “Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States” (Changnon, Changnon, and Karl [of National Climatic Data Center], 2006) found we are seeing more northern snow storms and that we get more snow storms in warmer years: The temporal distribution of snowstorms exhibited wide fluctuations during 1901–2000, with downward 100-yr trends in the lower Midwest, South, and West Coast. Upward trends occurred in the upper Midwest, East, and Northeast, and the national trend for 1901–2000 was upward, corresponding to trends in strong cyclonic activity…..
  • Results for the November–December period showed that most of the United States had experienced 61%– 80% of the storms in warmer-than-normal years. Assessment of the January–February temperature conditions again showed that most of the United States had 71%–80% of their snowstorms in warmer-than-normal years. In the March–April season 61%–80% of all snowstorms in the central and southern United States had occurred in warmer-than-normal years…. Thus, these comparative results reveal that a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more snowstorms than in 1901–2000. Agee (1991) found that long-term warming trends in the United States were associated with increasing cyclonic activity in North America, further indicating that a warmer future climate will generate more winter storms.
  • the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) U.S. Climate Impacts Report from 2009, which reviewed the literature and concluded: Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent.
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  • Large-scale storm systems are the dominant weather phenomenon during the cold season in the United States. Although the analysis of these storms is complicated by a relatively short length of most observational records and by the highly variable nature of strong storms, some clear patterns have emerged.112 [Kunkel et al., 2008] Storm tracks have shifted northward over the last 50 years as evidenced by a decrease in the frequency of storms in mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, while high-latitude activity has increased. There is also evidence of an increase in the intensity of storms in both the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with greater confidence in the increases occurring in high latitudes.112 [Kunkel et al., 2008] The northward shift is projected to continue, and strong cold season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights.68 [Gutowski et al, 2008]
  • The northward shift in storm tracks is reflected in regional changes in the frequency of snowstorms. The South and lower Midwest saw reduced snowstorm frequency during the last century. In contrast, the Northeast and upper Midwest saw increases in snowstorms, although considerable decade-to-decade variations were present in all regions, influenced, for example, by the frequency of El Niño events.112 [Kunkel et al., 2008]
  • Then we have this apparently as yet unpublished research presented by Dr James Overland of the NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory at the recent International Polar Year Oslo Science Conference (IPY-OSC) where he was chairing “a session on polar climate feedbacks, amplification and teleconnections, including impacts on mid-latitudes.” “Cold and snowy winters will be the rule, rather than the exception,” says Dr James Overland…. Continued rapid loss of sea ice will be an important driver of major change in the world’s climate system in the years to come…. “While the emerging impact of greenhouse gases is an important factor in the changing Arctic, what was not fully recognised until now is that a combination of an unusual warm period due to natural variability, loss of sea ice reflectivity, ocean heat storage and changing wind patterns working together has disrupted the memory and stability of the Arctic climate system, resulting in greater ice loss than earlier climate models predicted,” says Dr Overland. “The exceptional cold and snowy winter of 2009-2010 in Europe, eastern Asia and eastern North America is connected to unique physical processes in the Arctic,” he says.
  • Even though these storms occurred during warmest winter on record, I think the best way to talk about it until Overland publishes his work is the way NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth did on NPR (audio here): RENEE MONTAGNE, host:  With snow blanketing much of the country, the topic of global warming has become the butt of jokes. Climate skeptics built an igloo in Washington, D.C. during last weeks storm and dedicated it to former Vice President Al Gore, who’s become the public face of climate change. There was also a YouTube video called “12 Inches of Global Warming” that showed snowplows driving through a blizzard.For scientists who study the climate, it’s all a bit much. As NPRs Christopher Joyce reports, they’re trying to dig out. CHRISTOPHER JOYCE: Snowed-in Washington is where much of the political debate over climate change happens. So it did not go unnoticed when a Washington think-tank that advocates climate action had to postpone a climate meeting last week because of inclement weather. That kind of irony isnt lost on climate scientists. Most don’t see a contradiction between a warming world and lots of snow. Heres Kevin Trenberth, a prominent climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado. Mr. KEVIN TRENBERTH (Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research): The fact that the oceans are warmer now than they were, say, 30 years ago, means there’s about, on average, 4 percent more water vapor lurking around over the oceans than there was, say, in the 1970s. JOYCE: Warmer water means more water vapor rises up into the air. And what goes up, must come down. Mr. TRENBERTH: So one of the consequences of a warming ocean near a coastline like the East Coast and Washington, D.C., for instance, is that you can get dumped on with more snow, partly as a consequence of global warming. JOYCE: And Trenberth notes that you don’t need very cold temperatures to get big snow. In fact, when the mercury drops too low, it may be too cold to snow. There’s something else fiddling with the weather this year: a strong El Nino. That’s the weather pattern that, every few years, raises itself up out of the western Pacific Ocean and blows east to the Americas. It brings heavy rains and storms to California and the South and Southeast. It also pushes high-altitude jet streams farther south, which brings colder air with them. Trenberth also says El Nino can lock in weather patterns like a meteorological highway, so that storms keep coming down the same track. True, those storms have been big ones – record breakers. But meteorologist Jeff Masters, with the Web site Weather Underground, says it’s average temperatures — not snowfall — that really measure climate change. There’s more water vapor lurking around the oceans, and whatever the proximate cause of any one snow storm, there is little doubt that global warming means the overwhelming majority of East Coast storms will be sweeping in more moisture and dumping it on the ground.
Hunter Cutting

Rampant drought in Vietnam hits rice production - 0 views

  • Ongoing drought in Vietnam is constraining the country’s food security, and temperatures reaching upwards of 104 Fahrenheit have further compounded the problem. Roughly 46,000 hectares of cropland in the central north region and more than 25, 000 hectares of rice along the coastal provinces have been affected, the Thanh Nien Daily reports.
  • Vietnam is the second-largest exporter of rice in the world. The agricultural industry employs more than 22 million Vietnamese. By the end of June over 400,000 tons of rice, worth an estimated $US131.7 million, had been lost, officials told the Thanh Nien Daily. So far the state has granted about $US15 million for drought relief, the Asian Times reports.
  • The Mekong Delta, the final recipient of the waters from the Mekong River before it empties into the South China Sea, produces more than half of Vietnam’s rice. But the Mekong is the lowest it has been in more than 50 years, Voice of America News reports. Low rainfall has caused increased salinization in the Mekong Delta, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development predicted in March that more than 100,000 hectares of farmland in the region are in jeopardy.
Hunter Cutting

Polar heat pushing jet stream south, bringing Harder Winters for U.S./E.U./Japan - 0 views

  • Last winter's big snowfall and cold temperatures in the eastern United States and Europe were likely caused by the loss of Arctic sea ice, researchers concluded at the International Polar Year Oslo Science Conference in Norway last week.Climate change has warmed the entire Arctic region, melting 2.5 million square kilometres of sea ice, and that, paradoxically, is producing colder and snowier winters for Europe, Asia and parts of North America. "The exceptional cold and snowy winter of 2009-2010 in Europe, eastern Asia and eastern North America is connected to unique physical processes in the Arctic," said James Overland of the NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in the United States. "In future, cold and snowy winters will be the rule rather than the exception" in these regions, Overland told IPS.
  • Temperatures in January were -2C over the water, while the land was -25C, making conditions far windier and producing more snowfall than normal. Heavy snow on the remaining ice insulates it from the cold air, preventing it from thickening during the long winter.
  • This huge mass of warmer air over the Arctic in the late fall not only generates more wind and snow locally, several studies have now documented the impacts on global weather patterns. The winter of 2005-6 was the coldest in 50 years in Japan and eastern Eurasia, reported Meiji Honda, a senior scientist with the Climate Diagnosis Group at Japan's Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. Honda's studies show that the air over the Arctic was quite warm in the fall of 2005, which altered normal wind patterns, pushing the jet stream further south and bringing arctic cold to much of Eurasia and Japan. He also documented the same mechanism for the colder winters of 2007-8 and 2009-10, he told participants. In eastern North America, the same conditions of 2007-8 produced increased precipitation and colder temperatures in the winter. As the sea ice declines, big impacts are likely to be seen in this region, said Sara Strey of the University of Illinois.
Hunter Cutting

Nights getting warmer in India, cereal output may fall: Study - The Times of India - 0 views

  • In an ominous sign of climate change hitting home, India has seen accelerated warming in the past few decades and the temperature-rise pattern is now increasingly in line with global warming trends. The most up-to-date study of temperatures in India, from 1901 to 2007, has found that while it’s getting warmer across regions and seasons, night temperatures have been rising significantly in almost all parts of the country. The rise in night temperatures — 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade since 1970, according to the study — could have potentially adverse impact on yields of cereal crops like rice. The paper also finds that warming has been highest in post-monsoon and winter months (October to February).
  • ‘‘Until the late 1980s, minimum (or night) temperatures were trendless in India. India was an odd dot in the global map as most regions worldwide were seeing a rise in night temperatures in sync with growing levels of greenhouse gases. Our analysis shows the global trend has caught up with India,’’ said K Krishna Kumar, senior scientist and programme manager at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, and one of the authors.
  • The rising night temperatures are a major cause of worry. Said Jagdish K Ladha, principal scientist in the India chapter of International Rice Research Institute, ‘‘Minimum temperatures have a link with rice fertility. At higher than normal night temperatures, rice grains aren’t properly filled up, leading to a drop in yield.’’
Hunter Cutting

Bodo peoples displaced by climate change - a personal account - 0 views

  • Swdwmsri Narzary, 19, a nimble weaver, rests her fingers on her loom and gets a faraway look when asked to recall her last few years of struggle dealing with the pressures of climate change. Orphaned at an early age, Swdwmsri lived with her elder brother and his family in Bijni, a rural village in Assam province's Chirang district. But increasingly unpredictable weather conditions - drought one year, incessant and untimely rains the next - made life gradually harder as the family's crops repeatedly failed. With the family on the verge of starvation, Swdwmsri had to drop out of school. Her brother decided not to waste money sowing new crops and instead used his remaining cash to migrate to a nearby city, Guwahati, in search of a job.
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    Reuters story on the displacement of Bodo peoples (in India) in the face of weather extremes driven by climate change and subsequent crop failures, featuring a personal account.
Hunter Cutting

Rubber industry hit hard as warm nights increase - 0 views

  • We, at the Rubber Board, did a study using the data of the last fifty years and found that warm nights are increasing steadily. This has had an impact. The productivity of rubber trees in India which stood at 1,903 kg per hectare per year in 2008 was down to 1,796 kg per hectare per year in 2009. Climate change is a significant factor for this fall in productivity though other factors also might have contributed.
Hunter Cutting

Mumbai seeing steady trend toward heaver rainstorms, linked to climate change - 0 views

  • Mumbai has over the last four years seen a gradual decline in the number of rain days, states data compiled by the disaster management department of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). While it rained on 106 days during the monsoon season in 2006, it only rained on 92 days in 2008. The number further came down to 86 in 2009.
  • Interestingly, however, even as the number of rain days decreased by almost 19%, for the last year when rains were deficient, the total rainfall witnessed has not deviated much.
  • Extreme rain events have increased due to climatic changes and global warming, a senior civic official said.
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  • The BMC data was also corroborated by a paper presented on ‘Mumbai’s urban flooding vulnerability: preparedness and mitigation’ by IIT scientist Kapil Gupta.In his paper, Gupta said that 50% of the annual rains was received in 2-3 events
Hunter Cutting

"Warmer temperatures the new normal": NOAA - 0 views

  • Hot summers (and balmier winters) may simply be the new normal, thanks to carbon dioxide lingering in the atmosphere for centuries. This trend reaches back further than a couple of years. There have been exactly zero months, since February 1985, with average temperatures below those for the entire 20th century. (And those numbers are not as dramatic as they could be, because the last 15 years of the 20th century included in this period raised its average temperature, thereby lessening the century-long heat differential.) That streak—304 months and counting—was certainly not broken in June 2010, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Last month saw average global surface temperatures 0.68 degree Celsius warmer than the 20th-century average of 15.5 degrees C for June—making it the warmest June at ground level since record-keeping began in 1880.
  • Not only that, June continued another streak—this year, it was the fourth warmest month on record in a row globally, with average combined land and sea surface temperatures for the period at 16.2 degrees C. The high heat in much of Asia and Europe as well as North and South America more than counterbalanced some local cooling in southern China, Scandinavia and the northwestern U.S.—putting 2010 on track to surpass 2005 as the warmest year on record. Even in the higher reaches of the atmosphere—where cooling of the upper levels generally continues thanks to climate change below—June was the second warmest month since satellite record-keeping began in 1978, trailing only 1998. "Warmer than average global temperatures have become the new normal," says Jay Lawrimore, chief of climate analysis at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, which tracks these numbers. "The global temperature has increased more than 1 degree Fahrenheit [0.7 degree C] since 1900 and the rate of warming since the late 1970s has been about three times greater than the century-scale trend."
  • All this heat comes at a time when the sun—despite a recent uptick in solar storm activity, much of it associated with sunspots, since late 2008—continues to pump out slightly less energy. This diminished solar radiation should be promoting a slight cooling but is apparently outweighed by the ongoing accumulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, as scientists have predicted for more than a century. Of course year to year variations in weather cannot be conclusively tied to climate change, which is best measured by a multiyear trend, such as the long-term trend of warming into which this year fits—2000 to 2010 is already the warmest decade since records have been kept and the 10 warmest average annual surface temperatures have all occurred in the past 15 years.
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  • "Frankly, I was expecting that we'd see large temperature increases later this century with higher greenhouse gas levels and global warming," Stanford climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh, who headed up the research, said in a prepared statement. "I did not expect to see anything this large within the next three decades."
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