Group items tagged

Welcom

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle EastA withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in four nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and several other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Iraq, which had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah. It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961. Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.Three countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000. It was also very hot in Kuwait, with temperatures reaching 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital on June 15. Kuwait's all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Some experts call the genocide in Darfur the world's first conflict caused by climate change. After all, the crisis was sparked, at least in part, by a decline in rainfall over the past 30 years just as the region's population doubled, pitting wandering pastoralists against settled farmers for newly scarce resources, such as arable land.

Agricultural economist Marshall Burke of the University of California, Berkeley and his colleagues have analyzed the history of conflict in sub-Saharan Africa between 1980 and 2002 in a new paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"We find that civil wars were much more likely to happen in warmer-than-average years, with one degree Celsius warmer temperatures in a given year associated with a 50 percent higher likelihood of conflict in that year," Burke says. The implication: because average temperatures may warm by at least one degree C by 2030, "climate change could increase the incidences of African civil war by 55 percent by 2030, and this could result in about 390,000 additional battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars."

Hot summers (and balmier winters) may simply be the new normal, thanks to carbon dioxide lingering in the atmosphere for centuries. This trend reaches back further than a couple of years. There have been exactly zero months, since February 1985, with average temperatures below those for the entire 20th century. (And those numbers are not as dramatic as they could be, because the last 15 years of the 20th century included in this period raised its average temperature, thereby lessening the century-long heat differential.) That streak—304 months and counting—was certainly not broken in June 2010, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Last month saw average global surface temperatures 0.68 degree Celsius warmer than the 20th-century average of 15.5 degrees C for June—making it the warmest June at ground level since record-keeping began in 1880.

Not only that, June continued another streak—this year, it was the fourth warmest month on record in a row globally, with average combined land and sea surface temperatures for the period at 16.2 degrees C. The high heat in much of Asia and Europe as well as North and South America more than counterbalanced some local cooling in southern China, Scandinavia and the northwestern U.S.—putting 2010 on track to surpass 2005 as the warmest year on record. Even in the higher reaches of the atmosphere—where cooling of the upper levels generally continues thanks to climate change below—June was the second warmest month since satellite record-keeping began in 1978, trailing only 1998. "Warmer than average global temperatures have become the new normal," says Jay Lawrimore, chief of climate analysis at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, which tracks these numbers. "The global temperature has increased more than 1 degree Fahrenheit [0.7 degree C] since 1900 and the rate of warming since the late 1970s has been about three times greater than the century-scale trend."

All this heat comes at a time when the sun—despite a recent uptick in solar storm activity, much of it associated with sunspots, since late 2008—continues to pump out slightly less energy. This diminished solar radiation should be promoting a slight cooling but is apparently outweighed by the ongoing accumulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, as scientists have predicted for more than a century. Of course year to year variations in weather cannot be conclusively tied to climate change, which is best measured by a multiyear trend, such as the long-term trend of warming into which this year fits—2000 to 2010 is already the warmest decade since records have been kept and the 10 warmest average annual surface temperatures have all occurred in the past 15 years.

Spurred by a warming climate, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows over the last decade across the continental United States

"Climate change is making itself felt in terms of day-to-day weather in the United States," says Gerald Meehl, the lead author and a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The ways these records are being broken show how our climate is already shifting."

If temperatures were not warming, the number of record daily highs and lows being set each year would be approximately even. Instead, for the period from January 1, 2000, to September 30, 2009, the continental United States set 291,237 record highs and 142,420 record lows, as the country experienced unusually mild winter weather and intense summer heat waves. A record daily high means that temperatures were warmer on a given day than on that same date throughout a weather station's history.

In an ominous sign of climate change hitting home, India has seen accelerated warming in the past few decades and the temperature-rise pattern is now increasingly in line with global warming trends. The most up-to-date study of temperatures in India, from 1901 to 2007, has found that while it’s getting warmer across regions and seasons, night temperatures have been rising significantly in almost all parts of the country. The rise in night temperatures — 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade since 1970, according to the study — could have potentially adverse impact on yields of cereal crops like rice. The paper also finds that warming has been highest in post-monsoon and winter months (October to February).

‘‘Until the late 1980s, minimum (or night) temperatures were trendless in India. India was an odd dot in the global map as most regions worldwide were seeing a rise in night temperatures in sync with growing levels of greenhouse gases. Our analysis shows the global trend has caught up with India,’’ said K Krishna Kumar, senior scientist and programme manager at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, and one of the authors.

The rising night temperatures are a major cause of worry. Said Jagdish K Ladha, principal scientist in the India chapter of International Rice Research Institute, ‘‘Minimum temperatures have a link with rice fertility. At higher than normal night temperatures, rice grains aren’t properly filled up, leading to a drop in yield.’’

Extreme heat wave in Africa and Asia continues to set all-time high temperature recordsA withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered continues to smash all-time high temperatures Asia and Africa. As I reported earlier this week, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Niger, Pakistan, and Myanmar have all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time over the past six weeks. The remarkable heat continued over Africa and Asia late this week. The Asian portion of Russia recorded its highest temperate in history yesterday, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004. (The record for European Russia is 43.8°C--110.8°F--set on August 6, 1940, at Alexandrov Gaj near the border with Kazakhstan.) Also, on Thursday, Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. This includes Asia's hottest temperature of all-time, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting six national heat records in one month is eight in one summer is unprecedented. The only year which can compare is 2003, when five countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this summer's heat wave in Asia and Africa are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.

According to a recent press release from AlphaGalileo, a resource for European research news, a study lead by researchers from the Madrid Carlos III Institute of Health shows cholera cases in Zambia are increasing as temperatures rise. Their study results confirm that an increase in environmental temperature six weeks before the rainy season also increases the number of people affected by cholera at a rate of 4.9%. “This is the first time that it has become evident in the sub-Saharan region that the increase in environmental temperature is related to the increase in cholera cases,” says Miguel Ángel Luque, one of the study’s authors, in the press release. The research project, which was done in Zambia between 2003 and 2006, analyzes data from three cholera epidemics. The results show that climatic variables, such as rain and environmental temperature, are related to the increase in cholera cases during the epidemic period. Experts affirm that cholera has a seasonal component associated with the rain season. An increase in temperature six weeks before this period is related with a 4.9% increase in the number of cases of this sickness within the population. The study also showed that  a 1º C increase in temperature six weeks before the beginning of the outbreak explains the 5.2% increase in cholera cases during an epidemic.

According to a recent press release from AlphaGalileo, a resource for European research news, a study lead by researchers from the Madrid Carlos III Institute of Health shows cholera cases in Zambia are increasing as temperatures rise. Their study results confirm that an increase in environmental temperature six weeks before the rainy season also increases the number of people affected by cholera at a rate of 4.9%.

the heat so far this June has been exceptional -- and, in some cases, record-breaking.

A strong upper-level high-pressure system, more reminiscent of midsummer than early June, has been responsible for the unusual spike in temperatures, which has extended from the Desert Southwest through the Southern Plains and into the deep South. The heat peaked in the Southwest on Sunday and Monday. The temperature soared to 110 degrees in Las Vegas on Sunday -- the earliest 110-degree reading on record -- and temperatures approached 120 degrees in Death Valley on both Sunday and Monday. The National Weather Service issued excessive-heat warnings and heat advisories for southern Nevada, the deserts of California and portions of Arizona, warning residents of the need to remain hydrated and limit outdoor activity.

In Las Vegas, the high temperature will be close to 105 degrees today and near 100 degrees on Wednesday, which will mark seven consecutive days with 100-plus temperatures.The unusually hot weather has been persistent in the Southern Plains, Missouri Valley and parts of the deep South so far in June as well. Temperatures have averaged five to eight degrees above normal across this region, including a 100-degree temperature in Dallas on Saturday, and heat advisories remain in effect in parts of Louisiana.

The GCC region is undergoing a heat wave that is hospitalising labourers, breaking down electricity substations and pushing power stations to the limit, experts and officials from across the region say. ¡°It¡¯s a heat wave, it¡¯s unexpected, we are having extreme temperatures for this time of year,¡± said Essa Ramadan, the senior meteorologist at the Kuwait Meteorological Department. In Kuwait, ¡°it¡¯s seven to eight degrees [Celsius] above average¡±.

The highest temperature ever recorded at Kuwait International Airport since it started taking measurements in 1957 was 51.3¢ªC in August 1998. Even though June is usually a cooler month, that temperature was matched this week. Weather stations in other areas of the country recorded temperatures as high as 54¢ªC.

Mr Ramadan blames the high temperatures on global warming, which he said is changing the Earth¡¯s weather systems and has led to an average annual rise of between 0.5¢ªC and 0.8¢ªC in Kuwait over the last 53 years. He said Kuwait, the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia, the south of Iraq and west Iran are being hit the hardest.

Last month’s combined global land and ocean surface temperature made it the warmest June on record and the warmest on record averaged for any April-June and January-June periods, according to NOAA. Worldwide average land surface temperature was the warmest on record for June and the April-June period, and the second warmest on record for the year-to-date (January-June) period, behind 2007.

he combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for June 2010 was the warmest on record at 61.1°F (16.2°C), which is 1.22°F (0.68°C) above the 20th century average of 59.9°F (15.5°C). The global June land surface temperature was 1.93°F (1.07°C) above the 20th century average of 55.9 °F (13.3°C) — the warmest on record.

Warmer-than-average conditions dominated the globe, with the most prominent warmth in Peru, the central and eastern contiguous U.S., and eastern and western Asia.

Russia Heat Wave Statistics Staggers the Imagination

IT IS AS IF THE RUSSIAN HEARTLAND SHIFTED ONE THOUSAND MILES SOUTH That the month of July 2010 was hot in Moscow could rank among the foremost understatements in the world of "weather speak." For one thing, the highest temperature on record (in roughly 130 years of Moscow weather records) was reached on July 29, this being 38.2 C, or 100.8 F. This broke the previous high mark of 37.5 C set only three days earlier, on July 26. This was nearly tied on July 28. All of this is extraordinary, given that the normal high for this, the hottest time of year, is only 23 C. Moreover, July 2010 was the hottest July in the climate record of Moscow, as well as the hottest month overall. Thanks to Loepa, writing from Brasil (of all places!), I have it that the old record for warmest month in Moscow was 23.3 C, or 73.9 F, versus normal of about 17 C, or 63 C. What about this July? How about 26.1 C, or 79.0 F. So that is nearly a 3 C (and more than 5 F) gap. It is as if Moscow were shifted a thousand miles to the south. For perspective, the normal average temperature of July in Washington, D.C., is 26.2 C, or 79.2 F, according to the ADC database. Moscow has thus experienced roughly the weather (less the usual steamy humidity and thunderstorms) that is normally expected in the city of Washington, D.C., which lies 1,890 km/1,170 miles nearer to the equator! ST. PETERSBURG HAS ALSO ENDURED EXTREME TEMPERATURES I do not have full climate records for St. Petersburg, but I do know about July 2010. The AccuWeather.Com database shows a monthly mean temperature of 24.2 C, or 75.5 F. Normal mean July temperature is 15.2 C, or 59.4 F. Yes, that is even higher above normal than was Moscow. The city of Indianapolis has a normal mean July temperature of 24.2 C. Yet Indianapolis is 2,250 km/1,400 miles nearer to the equator than St. Petersburg. I do not say that this is a rigorous "apples-to-apples" comparison. Rather, it is to get a rough idea of how skewed the weather has been this summer in the Russian heartland. AND IT IS NOT OVER YET... As of this writing, the highest temperature thus far on Wednesday, Aug. 4, is 36.6 C, or 98 F, in Moscow. St. Petersburg has reached 33.3 C, or 92 F. Searing heat has invaded eastern Belarus, where readings to 37 C or 38 C have been reached. In the Ukraine, the worst of the heat has backed westward to Kiev, where August 4 has become the hottest day (37 C to 38 C, or near 100 F) of the summer thus far. And near 40 C yet again in Luhansk. The GFS numerical forecast model shows widespread extreme high temperature departure, for at least another week, throughout European Russia along with stretches of her western neighbors.

China issued a fresh heatwave alert Wednesday as soaring temperatures -- some of them record highs -- were again forecast for large swathes of the nation, sparking concerns about power shortages.The National Meteorological Centre warned that large parts of northern and central China would again be hit by "sweltering heat and very little rain", with temperatures set to hit 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit).It set the heat alert at "orange" -- the second-highest rating on a four-colour scale.The extreme heat, which began at the weekend in most areas, has led to hospital wards packed with people suffering from heat-related illnesses, a surge in air-conditioner sales and even a plague of locusts in Inner Mongolia.

Zookeepers

used giant ice blocks to keep animals cool, the Xinhua news agency reported.In several cities including Beijing, where the temperature hit 40.6 degrees Celsius on Monday, authorities reported that overheated vehicles had caught fire, state media said.The heatwave comes after torrential rains in June, mainly in southern parts of the nation, caused massive floods and landslides that killed at least 266 people.The soaring temperatures have led to fears of power shortages in several provinces due to high demand for air conditioning, the state-run Global Times reported.In the southern city of Guangzhou, authorities had opened nearly 500 shelters equipped with air-conditioning units and water for people to escape the heat, the report said.Water demand has also soared along with the high temperatures.In Beijing on Monday, nearly three million cubic metres of water was pumped into the capital, the largest single-day usage since tap water was brought into operation in 1910, the China Daily reported.Authorities in the capital said they would double a "high temperature" subsidy for people working outside in the heat, or whose workplaces were hotter than 33 degrees Celsius.Those who work outside will now get an extra 120 yuan (18 dollars) a month, while people in hot indoor places will be paid 90 yuan, the report said.

This study evaluated the association between temperature variation and emergency admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia, over a 10-year period. For people under age 65, the risk of primary intracerebral hemorrhage in summer rose significantly-15% and 12%, respectively-for 1°C (1.8°F) increases in daily high and low temperature, after controlling for potential confounding effects of humidity and air pollutants.

In a Congressional briefing on 30 June 2010, hurricane expert Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) said the potential for a disastrous 2010 hurricane season reflects not just natural variability but also climate change.  He explained that record high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic were one of the principal factors behind the dire forecast, and that rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may account for roughly half of the anomalous warmth.  He warned that "we’re looking at potentially a doubling of major hurricanes in the next 20 to 30 years" as a result of global warming.  Holland, Director of NCAR's Earth System Laboratory, made his remarks as a member of a panel on Hurricanes and Oil Will Mix: Managing Risk Now. 

A month before the panel's briefing, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued on 27 May its 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. NOAA said there was a 70% chance that the Atlantic hurricane season would see 14-23 named storms, 8-14 hurricanes, and 3-7 major hurricanes.

Among the factors underlying its outlook, NOAA cited warm Atlantic Ocean surface waters, which in May were for the fourth month in a row at record high temperatures for the month:  "Sea surface temperatures [SSTs] are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region."

As she did for winter 2010, this summer Mother Nature has truly outdone herself, this time by brewing up a miserable combination of heat and humidity that has enveloped not only the northeastern U.S., but much of the Northern Hemisphere as well. As Ian Livingston reported on Saturday, July was the warmest single calendar month of all time in Washington (tied with July 1993). The warmest day in the city was July 7th, when the temperature soared to 102 degrees Fahrenheit at Reagan National Airport. The day before, the temperature rose to a sweltering 105 F at Baltimore-Washington International Airport. In total, Washingtonians sweated through 21 July days during which temperatures exceeded 90 degrees. Baltimore set a new record for the average daily high temperature, which was 92.5 degrees, beating July 1988's 91.9 degrees. New York City and Philadelphia experienced their second-warmest months since records began in the late 1800s. New York recorded an average monthly temperature of 81.3 degrees, which was 4.8 degrees above the July average. The warmest July on record there occurred in 1999, when the average temperature was 81.4 degrees.

Although long-term global climate change doesn't directly cause a particular heat wave, the pronounced warming trend in global average temperatures during the past century has increased the odds of more frequent and severe heat waves. For example, scientists have partially attributed the deadly 2003 European heat wave, which killed tens of thousands, to manmade climate change.

Turbulent weather blows into the Southwest

According to many scientists, our atmospheric system is in such a “hydrologic cycle” with water, vapor and energy responding to the increase in heat from the Earth just like a pot of water on the stove. And this boiling point has made for increasingly windy years around the Four Corners

“Climate models indicate that global warming could be responsible for our colder temperatures and blustery days,” said Chris Fox, former Environmental Sciences professor at the University of Maryland. Fox has been studying weather for more than 20 years and spent last summer in the Durango area. Fox predicted five years ago that the “next big factor we’d be dealing with would be the wind after observing changes and “connecting the dots.”

New daily high temperature records were set in many cities, with June 2010 ranking as the hottest June on record for Delaware, New Jersey, and North Carolina.

The unusual warmth in the highly populated South and Southeast resulted in the second highest June REDTI value in the 116-year record. For the first half of 2010, large footprints of extreme wetness (more than three times the average footprint), warm minimum temperatures ("warm overnight lows"), and areas experiencing heavy 1-day precipitation events resulted in a Climate Extremes Index (CEI) that was about 6 percent higher than the historical average.

The nationally-averaged temperature for June was much warmer than normal. A deep layer of high pressure dominated much of the eastern United States

Qatar's longest day in the year was also the hottest with experts agreeing that the unusually high temperatures experienced in Qatar and the Gulf region over the last five days indicate a significant shift in weather patterns. The temperatures recorded this year are 5-7 degrees Celsius higher than in the corresponding period last year, Qatari daily The Peninsula said. Maximum temperatures on June 18, 19 and 20, last year, were 44, 43 and 42 degrees Celsius respectively. However, this year, all the three days recorded a high of 49C. There was also a major shift in the minimum temperature recorded during the same period.

The weather should not have been so hot this month. But we have been receiving warm and humid south-westerly winds for the last four days [thus forcing temperatures up]. Normally, we receive this wind during the peak of summer," the official was quoted as saying.

Record high temepratures in Bahrain have forced several construction companies take the humanitarian decision of resting their labourers in the afternoon.