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“In Colorado, we get our wind from the west,” he explained. “Canada gets its wind from the east. Where the wind belts rub against each other – it causes friction. As friction occurs, it creates waves in the atmosphere. Waves create frontal systems. These frontal systems are most noticeable during the change of seasons, which is also when we get our biggest storms, particularly in spring and fall.” Fox concluded that climate change is tipping the balance toward a battle of heat and cold. “Storms, created when frontal systems collide, are the atmosphere’s way of dealing with differences in temperature,” he said. “The atmosphere is attempting to balance the energy and equalize the temperature with the air going from high pressure to low pressure.” Fox added that cold air is now coming further south than it used to and warm air is going further north than usual. “Wind is air trying to equalize pressure,” he said. The scientist then used the analogy of a runner eating a big bowl of pasta. “If he then downs a Red Bull, there is more energy in the system to fuel his run,” he said. This pasta analogy goes beyond the college classroom and has a practical and local effect as well. It can be applied to the recent wind and dust storms that have wreaked havoc on Durango locals and tourists alike. Bayfield motorcyclist Jeff Gilmore had his windshield sandblasted as he headed into Flagstaff recently. “Semis were lined up on the side of the road,” he said. “Foot high sand drifts progressed across I-89 from Page to Flagstaff.” Although he pulled down his full-face helmet and shut all the vents, Gilmore was still pounded. “Sand stuck to my chapstick and the fine grit got in my mouth,” he said.

Carlotta Haber and her daughter were sent 100 miles out of their way while driving from Durango to Sedona a few weeks ago. Just before Holbrook, Ariz., on I-40 West, a sign read, “Highway closed 43 miles ahead due to dust storm.” “I couldn’t see the car in front of me and big tumbleweeds were rolling at the car,” she said. These anecdotes are directly in line with scientific findings. In fact, the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder has formulated global climate models forecasting that “all weather will get more extreme.” Storms are stronger than 20 years ago, according to NCAR, as the research center is predicting more precipitation per storm event, despite its forecast for fewer overall storms. Tim Foresman, former director of the United Nations Environmental program, explained, “These conditions are exactly what caused this past winter’s heavy snows in the East and the recent flooding in Tennessee. One was an extraordinary winter precipitation event and the other was a spring precipitation event.”

While these conditions may feel like an anomaly, research indicates that they are the logical result of changing conditions. National Climatic Data Center statistics reveal that in the last 30 years, the temperature has risen an average of 2 degrees in the United States. Since 1975, the average temperature in Colorado has increased by 2.28 degrees. The only two states whose temperatures have risen more are Utah, with a 2.43 degree increase, and Arizon,a with 2.79 degrees. A NASA report corroborates these findings. The report states that the last 12 months have been the warmest in at least 1,000 years. Foresman added, “The meteorological forecasts are based on prior weather patterns and may not be accurate without considering changes under way due to a warming climate. Forecasts are based on seasonal models from the immediate past and may not be a good indicator of the future due to changing climatic conditions.” His expertise has been extremely valuable to his sister-in-law, who just purchased property and is building a home in Durango. Counseling her on what to expect in the near future due to the changing patterns, she modified her construction plans.

Having recently experienced a blizzard in May in Santa Fe, Foresman stated the obvious. “The systems are all out of whack,” he said. “We’re going to be in for some interesting times. We can put our heads in the sand, or we can prepare.” In closing, Foresman remarked that the windiest days could be ahead for the Four Corners and Southwest and offered local residents a piece of advice. “If you have shutters on your windows, I suggest you make sure they’re functional and not decorative,” he said. “The winds aren’t going to go away until you turn the heat down.” •

"Climate change is happening at a much greater and accelerated pace than we ever expected 30 years ago," said Richard Leopold, director of the Iowa Department of Natural Resources. Huge floods in 2008, which left the state's second-biggest city, Cedar Rapids, with massive downtown destruction, intensified the debate, with a new set of recommendations coming from a state panel by the end of the year. "If we decide as a state to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a hurry, we can actually do it," said Sen. Rob Hogg, a Democrat from Cedar Rapids. "There are a lot of things we can do for no cost, and others we can do for very little cost."

Summer storms already can be more intense, and the Midwest has fought to avoid major flooding this year.

The records Takle analysed showed Iowa averages five more frost-free days a year than in 1950. But that doesn't mean more time to grow crops, because of changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. Generally, Iowa now has warmer winters, but fewer extremely hot summer days. Overall, the Midwest is expected to warm through the middle of the century, but not as much as other parts of the country.

The havoc has brought total economic losses in the nine provinces to 14.5 billion yuan (€1.7 billion), and affected 535,500 hectares of crops, further blighting food supply in the region. The conditions have also led to the collapse of 68,000 houses.

The meteorological bureau was forecasting more thunderstorms overnight and it was expecting rainfall of 100-180 millimetres in many areas, rising to over 200 millimetres in others.

“The scope and intensity of the rain have increased,” the office said on its website yesterday.This is effectively three times the usual level of rain in the region.Climate change has meant that each year the flooding gets worse, while the droughts are also worsening.

In fact, temperature change offered a better prediction of impending conflict in the 40 countries surveyed than even changes in rainfall, despite the fact that agriculture in this region is largely dependent on such precipitation. Burke and his fellow authors argue that this could be because many staple crops in the region are vulnerable to reduced yields with temperature changes—10 to 30 percent drops per degree C of warming.

"If temperature rises, crop yields decline and rural incomes fall, and the disadvantaged rural population becomes more likely to take up arms," Burke says. "Fighting for something to eat beats starving in their fields."

Whereas 23 years in 40 countries provides a relatively large data set, it does not exclude other possible explanations, such as violent crime increasing with temperature rise, a drop in farm labor productivity or population growth. "Fast population growth could create resource shortage problems, as well," notes geographer David Zhang of the University of Hong Kong, who previously analyzed world history back to A.D. 1400 to find linkages between war and temperature change. Those results were also published in 2007 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. But "the driver for this linkage," Zhang says," is resource shortage, mainly agricultural production, which is caused by climate change." Burke and his colleagues specifically excluded records from prior to 1980, because of the conflict rampant in the wake of Africa's emerging colonial independence after World War II. "A lag of a couple of decades would leave sufficient time for post-independence turmoil to wear out," Burke argues. "We took the approach that the best analogue to the next few decades were the last few decades."

Proving the link—and providing a specific mechanism for the increase in conflict, whether agricultural productivity or otherwise—remains the next challenge. "I believe that the historical experience of human society of climate change would provide us [with] the evidence of how climate cooling and warming during the last thousand years created human crisis, and also the lessons for human adaptive choices for climate change," Zhang notes. "We feel that we have very clearly shown the strong link between temperature increases and conflict risk," Burke adds. But "what interventions will make climate-induced conflict less likely?"

The BMC data was also corroborated by a paper presented on ‘Mumbai’s urban flooding vulnerability: preparedness and mitigation’ by IIT scientist Kapil Gupta.In his paper, Gupta said that 50% of the annual rains was received in 2-3 events

The Alaska Interagency Coordination Center (AICC) reported yesterday: "Low winter snowpack in north-central Alaska, warm spring temperatures, and a lack of precipitation has driven fuel conditions to historical maximum levels in Tok and Fairbanks. Current conditions create the potential for rapid fire spread rates, crown fires, and higher intensity fires. A high pressure weather system centered over Alaska exacerbates the existing conditions." The National Weather Service this morning (30 May 2010) has issued "red flag" warnings for much of Alaska's interior, along with portions of the North Slope of the Alaska Range.  The warnings, which extend to late in the evening on 30 May, mean that "conditions are occurring or will occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous fires."  See NOAA's Alaska Fire Weather for the latest watches and warnings. The AICC also said yesterday that  the current fire behavior and activity "is uncharacteristic for this time of year and is requiring a significant response statewide from Alaskan, Canadian and Lower-48 resources."  By late evening on 29 May, the last 5 available smokejumpers in Alaska were en route to a fire, emptying the smokejumper base in Fairbanks and bringing the total number of jumpers committed to fires to seventy.  The jumper base reported that none of the committed jumpers could be quickly demobilized from current fires to attack new fires.  With such "initial attack" firefighting resources constrained, fires will have more time to grow in size before firefighters arrive. According to today's Situation Report from the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center (AICC), there are 85 fires burning in the state.  A total of 193 fires have burned 98,163.3 acres so far this year.  The AICC Morning Highlights today said:  "Alaska is experiencing unprecedented fire activity for May that is more characteristic of extreme July conditions."  It added: "On a scale of 1-5, Alaska has now reached Preparedness Level 4. It means that multiple units are experiencing fire starts and there are several large, staffed fires. The probability of ignition is high, and conditions/ resistance to control are high to extreme, and weather conditions exist that promote fire growth. It also reflects the number of instate and out of state resources committed/required."

While researchers are confident that the higher temperatures and resulting changes in snowpack, Colorado River flow, vegetation mortality and wildfires are human-caused, they don't know whether the drought that has plagued the West for the last 10 years – the worst since record-keeping began – is because of humans, Overpeck said.