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IEA's dire warning on green stimulus and renewables Kate Mackenzie, Financial Times The IEA's report for G8 energy ministers, to be presented this Sunday in Rome, has generated a few stories. Some picked up on the oil supply squeeze that awaits the world due to massive cuts in production investment. I wrote yesterday that the IEA forecasts that, for the first time since World War II, world electricity consumption will decline in 2009. IEA chief economist Fatih Birol said he personally thought the electricity forecast was the most striking finding of the report. However he was also keen to highlight concern about green spending in the G20 stimulus packages: The agency will also tell ministers that its calculation of the stimulus spending required from G20 nations on renewable energy was inadequate and should rise by a factor of six if greenhouse gas emissions targets set by the United Nations were to be met... (22 May 2008)

Mr Obama's stimulus includes calls for $38bn in direct government spending and $18bn in tax breaks for clean energy spread over the next 10 years, according to Dewey & LeBoeuf, the law firm. Owners of solar, wind, and other clean energy facilities will be able to claim tax credits against the cost of new equipment, helping attract big institutional investors who have been put off investing in clean energy because of uncertainty about taxes. But the short timeframe - credits can only be claimed for projects that are up and running within the next three to four years - means projects still on the drawing board may not be ready in time to qualify.

Top Trends for 2009: On our GloboTrends wiki homepage, we will keep an updated list of global macro trends that we think are the most important to keep an eye on. Some of this list are statistically unlikely to occur, but if they did, it could cause global disruption. These unlikely events were dubbed Black Swan's in a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb , or might be called the "fat tail" probability in statistics. Others trends we are watching in the GloboTrends wiki are currently ongoing right now (such as our coverage of the credit crisis, deleveraging, margin calls, etc), and we will talk about how they happened, and predict their likely outcome. The format of a wiki makes the document dynamic, so any of our community is welcome to help shape our views of these important developments. Please log in to our wiki, and feel free to comment... In no particular order, here are the global macro trends that we think will be most significant in the coming year (2009): 1. credit crisis of 2007/08 will continue on into 2009...this one is clear...but, how long will it last? how will it fundamentally change international finance? Add your comments to our wiki... 2. fiscal stimulus and crisis recovery 2009 3. deleveraging of Financial markets will continue. In my opinion, this is the most destructive of all the trends. 4. Risk of deflation in the US as Fed Funds target rate approaches zero (other analysts see the opposite risk of potential hyper inflation). Add your comments.. 5. more... add to this list.. Predictions-for-2009

The Policy Brief for a Global Green New Deal, developed by economists and the UN ahead of the G-20 meeting of world leaders in London in early April, highlights the benefits of investing a significant amount of the $3 trillion-worth of global stimulus packages in five areas. According to a news release issued by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), these areas include raising the energy efficiency of old and new buildings, as well as renewable energies including wind, solar, geothermal and biomass.

According to Tom Albanese, CEO of Rio Tinto, metal stocks will see a boost in the second half of 2009. "We're beginning to see some of the infrastructure-driven stimulus plan in China and in the U.S. playing into steel, aluminum, copper demand and other materials that [Rio Tinto [RTP 134.06 1.06 (+0.8%) ]] would produce," Albanese told CNBC.

Leadership in both the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate are calling on the Department of Energy (DOE) to allocate US $250 million of the $2.5 billion in stimulus funding for renewable energy research and development to the emerging marine renewable energy industry. The funding would help develop wave, current and tidal energy technologies

President Obama yesterday outlined plans to spend about $59 billion in economic stimulus funds and $150 billion from the federal budget to promote what he calls America's "clean-energy future." "We will attack the problems that have held us back for too long," including dependence on foreign oil, Obama told a gathering of clean-energy entrepreneurs and leading researchers at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building

The Chinese government said that it would expand an existing subsidy program to encourage the purchase of new vehicles and home appliances, thereby boosting domestic spending. China will now allocate 5B yuan ($733M) for owners of light trucks and passenger vans who upgrade to new models. It also plans to spend 2B yuan ($293M) to fund discounts of new purchases of home appliances when customers turn in old goods, which will possibly give support to domestic copper demand. The plan will apply to almost all household appliances, including air-conditioners, television sets, refrigerators, washing machines and computers. Exports of these have been weak and the plan will help local producers to de-stock more quickly.

U.S. copper imports rose in March and should remain strong for the rest of year, boosted by a revival in the moribund housing sector. The uptrend in imports of the key industrial metal, widely used in construction and automobile manufacturing, is expected to continue in the coming months. Analysts see it as a good sign for the economy. "You're starting to see some of the stimulus taking place," said Michael Gross, futures analyst with Optionsellers.com in Tampa, Florida.

LS-Nikko Copper Inc. forecast copper demand in South Korea, Asia's third-biggest metals buyer, may improve "gradually" later this year and in 2010 buoyed by economic stimulus measures and a shortage of scrap material.

Aurubis, a leading European copper semis fabricator, said that it saw product demand and production recover in mid-May in the wire and cable industry and in some other copper semis sectors. The wirerod market, especially the automotive wiring industry, is supported by government stimulus packages. It said orders for continuous cast shapes also stabilised in May then rose slightly in June. The company reported pretax profit in the third quarter to June fell to 51m euros (US$72m). Product output was 479,000t of wire rod and 111,000t of continuous cast shapes for the first nine months.

Favorable market conditions for copper are likely to continue thanks to demand from China and stimulus programs in the world's leading economies, the head of Chile's state-run miner Codelco said on Friday.

According to data released by the US International Trade Commission, copper imports in September soared to 56,012 tonnes, up by more than 50% compared to August. Larger import volumes provide optimism for economic recovery in the US. The US stimulus plan amounts to US$787 billion and until now only a fifth to a quarter has been spent. Maximum results of the stimulus programme are expected to be realised in Q4 2009 - Q2 2010.

Copper likely to benefit more than the steel-intensive previous packages