Global growth is projected to increase during 2013, as the factors
underlying soft global activity are expected to subside. However, this upturn is
projected to be more gradual than in the October
2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections. Policy actions
have lowered acute crisis risks in the euro area and the United States. But in
the euro area, the return to recovery after a protracted contraction is delayed.
While Japan has slid into recession, stimulus is expected to boost growth in the
near term.
China - Improved copper demand outlook on hopes of further economic stimuli - 0 views
Germany - Aurubis optimistic on China growth in H2 2012 - 0 views
China - RMB14.0B subsidy for energy-saving appliances - 0 views
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The Ministry of Finance announced that a subsidy package worth RMB14.0B (US$2.22B) will be introduced to encourage sales of energy-saving desktop computers and air conditioners. The subsidy program will last one year and it is hoped that it will result in the market share of energy-saving products rising to 40% of the total.
The end of Bretton Woods 2? - 0 views
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The Bretton Woods 2 system – where China and then the oil-exporters provided (subsidized) financing to the US to sustain their exports – will come close to ending, at least temporarily. If the US and Europe are not importing much, the rest of the world won’t be exporting much.
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And rather than ending with a whimper, Bretton Woods 2 may end with a bang. In some sense Bretton Woods 2 has been on life support for a while now. China’s recent export growth has depended far more on Europe than on the US. US demand for non-oil imports peaked in 2006. One irony of the past year is that the US was borrowing far more from China that it was buying from China. Campaign rhetoric that the US was paying for Saudi oil with funds borrowed from China isn’t far off – though it leaves out the fact that the US also borrows from Saudi Arabia to pay for Venezuelan, Mexican and Nigerian oil.
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If Bretton Woods 2 ends in 2009 – if US demand for imports falls sharply in the last part of 2008 and early 2009, bringing the US trade deficit down – it won’t have ended in the way Nouriel and I outlined back in late 2004 and early 2005. We postulated that foreign demand for US debt would dry up – pushing up US Treasury rates and delivering a nasty shock to a housing-centric economy. As Brad DeLong notes, it didn’t quite play out that way. The US and European banking system collapsed before the balance of financial terror collapsed. Dr. DeLong writes: All of us from Lawrence Summers to John Taylor were expecting a very different financial crisis. We were expecting the ‘Balance of Financial Terror’ between Asia and America to collapse and produce chaos. We are not having that financial crisis. Instead we are having a very different financial crisis. Catastrophic failures of risk management throughout the entire banking sector caused a relatively minor collapse in housing prices to freeze up global finance to a degree that has not been seen since the Great Depression. The end result of this crisis though could be rather similar: a sharp contraction in credit, a fall in US economic activity, a fall in US imports and a fall in the amount of foreign financing the US needs.* The US government is (possibly) trying to offset the fall in private demand by borrowing more and spending more — but as of now there is realistic risk that the fall in private activity will trump the fiscal stimulus.
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Rio Tinto says demand strong for iron, copper ores - 0 views
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(AP) — LONDON - Anglo-Australian mining company Rio Tinto PLC said Thursday that demand for iron ore, copper and gold rose strongly in the fourth quarter, but was cautious about the current year as governments wind down economic stimulus programs.
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