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mehrreporter

Zibakalam asks Rouhani to hold referendum on relations with US - 0 views

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    President-elect's consultant has asked him to hold a referendum whether to commence relations with the US.
Frank Gallagher

US Touts 'Defense Umbrella' Against Iran - 0 views

  • The United States is ready to help its Gulf allies establish a "defense umbrella" if Iran does not back down over its nuclear program, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Wednesday.
  • we will take action, as I've said time and time again, crippling action, working to upgrade the defense of our partners in the region,"
  • "If the US extends a defense umbrella over the region, if we do even more to support the military capacity of those in the Gulf, it is unlikely Iran will be any stronger or safer," Clinton said.
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    Previously no statesman from the US or Europe has discussed containment, claiming instead that there was no way Iran would be allowed to attain nuclear weapons. This seems to be an end to that taboo and possibly a recognition that it's associated ambition is also unrealisable. It also claimsthat nuclear capability will not be allowed to enhance Iran's standing in respect of Saudi Arabi or Egypt.
Frank Gallagher

Excellent Review of the Campaign and the Elections- MERO (via Zmag - 0 views

  • The morning after Iran's June 12 presidential election, Iranians booted up their computers to find Fars News, the online mouthpiece of the Islamic Republic's security apparatus, heralding the dawn of a "third revolution." Many an ordinary Iranian, and many a Western pundit, had already adopted such dramatic language to describe the burgeoning street demonstrations against the declaration by the Ministry of Interior that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the sitting president, had received 64 percent of the vote to 34 percent for his main challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi. But the editors of Fars News were referring neither to the protests, as were the people in the streets, nor to the prospect that the unrest might topple the Islamic Republic, as were some of the more wistful commentators. Rather, the editors were labeling the radical realignment of Iranian politics that they wish for. This realignment would complete the removal of the old guard, as did the "first" revolution of 1978-1979, and consolidate the rule of inflexible hardliners, as did the "second revolution" symbolized by the US Embassy takeover of 1979.
  • The number of deeply conservative voters, of the sort who back Ahmadinejad, has not exceeded 12 percent of the electorate since 1993. True, in 2003, these voters seized control of the city councils of major cities, not because of a surge in the popularity of their agenda, but because of the widespread abstention of those who had lost hope in the effectiveness of reformist candidates.
  • But instead greater mass participation in the local elections of 2007 cost the hardliners their grip upon local councils. In Tehran, Ahmadinejad's men lost two thirds of their seats and had to share power with reformists and moderate conservatives.
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  • Khatami, then president, promised he would reveal details of election irregularities before leaving office, but this was a promise he did not keep. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, another contestant who later replaced Ahmadinejad as mayor of Tehran, announced that $330 million of the municipal budget was unaccounted for, hinting broadly that the monies had been illegally diverted to the Ahmadinejad campaign. Parliament formed a commission to investigate, but the new speaker, loyal to Ahmadinejad, suspended the investigation.
  • Incredulously, the ex-premier exclaimed: "They keep telling me, 'They used to cut neckties in your era.' Who do you think used to cut neckties? Who do you think Imam Khomeini forbade from interfering in people's lives? It was the same people who are in the administration now!"
  • Unlike in previous elections, the Ministry of Interior authorized deployment of 14,000 mobile voting booths, making it very difficult for candidates to send monitors to observe the balloting at every booth. Some 14.5 million extra ballots, by some reports, were printed and no clear system was delineated to track them. When several polling stations in urban centers ran out of ballots, Mousavi supporters asked where the extra ballots were, but they could not be found, and remain unaccounted for to date.
  • Yet the clearest violation of the law would be Mousavi and Karroubi's claim that their observers were not allowed to be present when ballots were counted and the ballot boxes sealed. By law and custom, these observers confirm that the boxes are empty before voting starts, and they are present at the count, sign the result sheet and take away a copy. They are also supposed to be present when the ballot boxes are finally sealed and sent to the Interior Ministry.
  • Unlike in previous elections and despite the enormous turnout, the Ministry of Interior was quick to declare a victor and the Leader officially congratulated Ahmadinejad before a final tally was released or the Guardian Council could make time to review complaints. The "result" generated sub-controversies as well. To highlight just a few, Karroubi is said to have won less than half a million votes (less than the number of spoiled ballots), when in 2005 he earned about 5 million votes, or 17 percent of the total vote. The initial count, oddly, did not include any ruined ballots.
  • During the campaign, opposition candidates repeatedly argued that Ahmadinejad had flaunted regulatory procedures in attempts to circumvent the constitutional checks and balances on the powers of the presidency. Today, it is apparent that this major campaign theme has been borne out in the election itself.
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    Great detail on the political background (inc. 2003, 4 and 7 elections); no the campaign, and on the result. Some good points on electoral processes as well, and the congruence between Ahmadinejad's circumlocation of proceedures for accountability whilst in office, and the conduct of the election.
Frank Gallagher

Rafsanjani's Speech at Friday Prayers - July 17th 2009 (English) - 0 views

  • 13:41 Rafsanjani is getting teary. “The prophet respected the rights of all those under his rule.” He brings an example from the end of the prophet’s life where the prophet comes to the people and asks that if he ever treated anyone unfairly, they speak up and let him know.
  • 13:46 The prophet went to Baghi [where his old friends were buried] and said to them: you are lucky that you are no longer here to see that your old brothers are killing and destroying one another.
  • 13:54 Rafsanjani condemns China. People chanted “Death to China” . He asks that people stop their chants.
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  • 14:03 We agreed that you will stop chanting. If we do not have the votes of the people behind us, we will have nothing. The guardian council, the expediency council, EVERYONE gets their legitimacy from the vote of the people.
  • 14:09 I have some suggestions. I have spoken to some members of the the expediency council and the assembly of experts about them too.14:10 We must bring back the trust of the people. First of all, everyone must accept the law. The people, the parliament, everyone.14:11 We must create a condition so that everyone can speak. We must speak logically. And a part of this is on the shoulders of the broadcasting corporation.14:12 The guardian council did not make good use of the extra fives days given to them by the leader.14:13 We do not need people in prison for this. Let’s allow them to return to their families.14:14 We must join hands with those who have incurred great loss and try to lesson their pain.14:15 We must give freedom to the press within the confines of the law.14:15 We are all members of the same family. We must remain friends and allies. Why have we gone so far as to pain some of our marajeh [top religious leaders]?14:16 I hope this sermon will pave a way out of this current situation. A situation that can be considered a crisis.14:17 The sermon is finished.
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    Translation by a reliable opposition blog.
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    Translation by a reliable opposition blog. Probably a crucial landmark in the working out of Iran's crisis.
Frank Gallagher

July 9: Updates on the Protests in Iran - The Lede Blog - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • There was no linking of the protests with any of Mousavi’s demands to work within the system or within a new political party - his name has seemed to separate from his corpus for the protesters. However, this was the most raucous 18th of Tir [9th of July] since the original one, so the regime may have been surprised its scare tactics did not completely work.
  • In one of the videos above it has been translated that people are chanting “Death to Mojtaba” Khamanei’s son, but the actual translation is more colorful. For the non-Farsi speakers they are actually chanting “MOJTABA, WE HOPE YOU DIE BEFORE YOU GET THE SUPREME LEADERSHIP” responding to reports that Khamanei is grooming his son to become the next supreme leader after he dies.
  • Hundreds of Republican Guards and Basij at Enqelab, Valiasar and Vanak. At Vanak soldiers every 5 feet around the roundabout. Lots of Basij motorcycle gangs (15-25 in each) swerving around the cars.
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  • Hundreds of Basij have set up camp in Laleh park, which seems to be pretty close to the epicenter. Some fires still burning.
  • The phones are completely out.
  • squads of 25 police would run up the streets with batons beating people
  • Saw two undercover Basij, one was actually a late 40s businessman in a suit, whipped out a collapsible metal baton and started beating someone with a camera. He was beaten until the baton broke, another Basij came on motorcycle to help but crowds started surging and booed them away. Someone threw a water bottle but otherwise crowd is peaceful — keep chanting “Please Stop!” and chased the two Basij away.
  • “I did shoot at people myself. I am a military man I have to obey my orders. The crowd was attacking us like crazy people; throwing stones and Molotov cocktails. We had to protect ourselves; to show we were serious, and we did warn them, shouting several times, before opening fire. But they continued to attack. I don’t remember who I shot, I just tried to shoot at the people’s feet.
  • It’s come back several times, and I can see the faces of the people I was ordered to shoot. I’ve asked a very spiritual mullah to pray for me.
  • I did it for Islam but it wasn’t easy to kill people. We have to remember who they are though - they’re deceitful people who are against the Islamic Revolution. You can’t expect us to stay calm when they want to overthrow our regime.”
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    Running description of the 18th Tir rememberence marches.
Frank Gallagher

Judiciary to Monitor Iran Elections - 0 views

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    Pour Mohammedi used to be an Ahmadinejad ally, now he's one of the President's biggest critics.
Frank Gallagher

Qalibaf Interview - FT - 0 views

  • we have not put any development project on hold. We decide on a project and push for its completion.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Comparison to Rafa's construction jihad?
  • Shora-Yaari, or assisting councils.
  • We have divided Tehran into 380 neighbourhoods with defined geography. People have elected their representatives to these councils to take over some development work. The work might be small-scale but is important. This helps people take part [in the city’s development] from their doorstep.
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  • A series of medium-scale projects have been carried out by the municipality’s representative offices in [22] zones. The third level is for big projects which are done at national level, like Milad Tower, construction of highways, giant junctions and cultural centres like Azadi Cinema [the original building was burnt down in 1997] over 10,000 square metres of land. Rebuilding the cinema will take less than 18 months and we are going to hold the Fajr Film Festival this year there in co-ordination with the culture ministry.
  • in Artists House
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      WTF! Neocons in Artists House?! Surely a set piece?
  • A: The government owes money to us on two fronts. The government like other people has to pay taxes for its buildings, like ministries, because they are inflicting costs on the city. The government doesn’t meet this part. The government owes us 500bn tomans in this respect, which in some cases go back to five or seven years ago. Unfortunately, the debts are going up.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Du to clash with Ahmadinejad?
  • This agreement was made when Mr [Morteza] Haji was the minister of education [in the previous reformist government].
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Explicitly points out cooperation with reformist predecessor
  • As a matter of principle, I don’t believe in populism and fooling the masses. If you look into my background, you don’t find such moves. Wherever I’ve worked, it has been completely principled, logical, scientific and systematic.
  • It is an invaluable experience at the age of 19 and 20 to be in charge of 15,000 people during [Iran-Iraq] war [1980-1988]. This happens to few people.
  • I said my first plan was to go to war front to die but I didn’t die.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Nod to Basiji martytdom
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    Excellent detail on his management of the city. Drops a lot of soundbites, positioning himself as a pragmatic technocrat but also a loyal follower of the revolution. Slick.
Frank Gallagher

Gary Sick calls events last night a 'political coup' - 0 views

  • On the basis of what we know so far, here is the sequence of events starting on the afternoon of election day, Friday, June 12. Near closing time of the polls, mobile text messaging was turned off nationwide Security forces poured out into the streets in large numbers The Ministry of Interior (election headquarters) was surrounded by concrete barriers and armed men National television began broadcasting pre-recorded messages calling for everyone to unite behind the winner The Mousavi campaign was informed officially that they had won the election, which perhaps served to temporarily lull  them into complacency But then the Ministry of Interior announced a landslide victory for Ahmadinejad Unlike previous elections, there was no breakdown of the vote by province, which would have provided a way of judging its credibility The voting patterns announced by the government were identical in all parts of the country, an impossibility (also see the comments of Juan Cole at the title link) Less than 24 hours later, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene`i  publicly announced his congratulations to the winner, apparently confirming that the process was complete and irrevocable, contrary to constitutional requirements Shortly thereafter, all mobile phones, Facebook, and other social networks were blocked, as well as major foreign news sources.
  • The willingness of the regime simply to ignore reality and fabricate election results without the slightest effort to conceal the fraud represents a historic shift in Iran’s Islamic revolution. All previous leaders at least paid lip service to the voice of the Iranian people. This suggests that Iran’s leaders are aware of the fact that they have lost credibility in the eyes of many (most?) of their countrymen, so they are dispensing with even the pretense of popular legitimacy in favor of raw power. The Iranian opposition, which includes some very powerful individuals and institutions, has an agonizing decision to make. If they are intimidated and silenced by the show of force (as they have been in the past), they will lose all credibility in the future with even their most devoted followers. But if they choose to confront their ruthless colleagues forcefully, not only is it likely to be messy but it could risk running out of control and potentially bring down the entire existing power structure, of which they are participants and beneficiaries.
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    Sick is a very senior US academic (Columbia University) and policy advisor. Notes that Mousavi was given an official message that he had won, perhaps intended to forestall any plan by DTV, PMOI and Participation Front to get out on the streets in an organised manner.
Frank Gallagher

Clash Between ahmadinejad and Principlalists over Cabinet - 0 views

  • With the reappointment of Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, Hashemi Samareh and Masoud Zaribafan to several key posts in the new administration, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continued with his insistence on using close friends in the tenth administration.
  • hmadinejad also appointed Samareh Hashemi as his senior advisr and Masoud Zaribafan to head the Martyrs Foundation.  Previously, he had appointed Akbar Salehi to head the Atomic Energy Agency following Gholamreza Aghazadeh’s resignation. 
  • Ahmadinejad is appointing his friends to serve at posts that do not require confirmation by the Majlis.
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  • In another appointment, Baghaei was appointed to head the tenth administration’s Cultural Heritage Organization.  Also, it was announced that Parviz Davoudi will serve as the president’s advisor.  Mehrdad Bazrpash, who has been with Ahamdinejad since his time as Tehran’s mayor, was promoted from presidential advisor to vice president and head of the National Youth Organization.
  • Within hours of the appointment Principalist lawmakers in the Majlis reacted to it.  Ali Motahari said that Ahmadinejad had not made the correct decision given the opinions of Ayatollah Khamenei, grand ayatollahs and the elite. 
Frank Gallagher

Another Transcript of Rafsanjani's Speech - 0 views

  • This week, Imam Jafar Sadigh’s martyrdom’s celebration will be held. He spent his entire life either in prison or being censored.
  • The Islamic Revolution was the way of Mohammed. People should be brought into the system first, This is why Imam Khomeini was successful.
  • We were with Imam Khomeini, He always said that without the participation of the people the Islamic government would never be successful. The role that Imam gave the people was very high. (Story about Mohammed’s late life about how important people are)
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  • When we were writing the new constitution, We asked the Imam for advice, He put a lot of emphasis on the role of the people. He also knew that people’s vote was the most important thing inside our country. Everything depended upon the people’s vote. People should directly elect the president, the parliament, the local council. It was all about the vote of the people. This is a theocracy, A theocratic republic.
  • We need to be able to sit down like brothers and sisters and talk about our differences. Unfortunately, The chance that was given to the Guardian Council of five days to get people together and regain their trust was not used.
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    Less polished English, but perhaps thus closer to the original Persian!
Frank Gallagher

Tough Times Ahead for the Iranian Economy - Brookings Institution - 0 views

  • Iran’s economy is facing at least three large imbalances. The most acute is in the balance of payments.
  • Already some candidates are whispering that they favor lowering the exchange rate (increasing the value of the rial relative to other currencies) in order to fight inflation. These candidates would lead voters to believe that they can have their cake and eat it too
  • In these times of frozen international credit markets and economic sanctions against Iran, the second option of foreign borrowing is less likely than it was in the 1990s, but the risk of state-owned enterprises racking up foreign debts using short-term credit from eager overseas suppliers is not altogether gone. This is precisely what they did in the early 1990s, which deepened the post-oil boom slump and halted Rafsanjani’s reforms. Anticipating devaluation and government bailout, these enterprises incurred $10 billion in new short term debt alone between 1991 and 1993. Their actions forced the highly anticipated devaluation of the rial by a factor of 27 during the same period and forced the government to accept this debt as its own.
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  • Repeating the past is more likely to come in the form of the politically more palatable option of simply cutting imports. Such a policy will be costly in terms of jobs and growth, but will unfortunately appeal to any one of the current leading candidates (Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Moussavi, and Ahmadinejad), all of whom have strong dirigiste tendencies and would welcome the power over the private sector which comes with overseeing the allocation of the anticipated $40 billion of oil earnings to industries and individuals.
  • The second imbalance is in the government budget.
  • if the past is any guide, investment will take the biggest hit.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      This pattern has been repeated during Ahmadinejad's term. Soft loans were given out in order to spur the construction of new businesses, but investment levels fell as the new money was either consumed (from imports) or poured into the real estate bubble.
  • The third imbalance is in the country’s financial markets
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    Good backgrounder on the economic hurdles for whoever wins this Friday
Frank Gallagher

In Iran, disparate, powerful forces ally against Ahmadinejad - Los Angeles Times - 0 views

  • Rafsanjani has created a multimillion-dollar electronic network under the aegis of the Expediency Council to set off alarm bells in case of suspicions of fraud, said one person close to his camp, who spoke on condition of anonymity. He's also dispatching members of his Kargozaran political party to monitor polling stations and the election desk at the Interior Ministry. He convened a regular series of meetings to alert journalists and activists to the possibility of cheating after Ahmadinejad purged longtime employees from the section of the ministry that monitors fraud about two months ago. "He has access to the intelligence systems of the government, and he can put pressure on the establishment," said Kaviani, who has attended the meetings. "The most important thing for him is to get rid of Ahmadinejad, no matter the cost, and he thinks that if there's no cheating Ahmadinejad won't win. All the efforts are to prevent Ahmadinejad to get 51%."
  • To help Mousavi further, Rafsanjani has thrown open the doors of the 300 branches of Azad University throughout the provinces to his supporters, allowing them to deliver speeches and organize inside their halls; they are often barred from using government facilities by local officials loyal to Ahmadinejad.
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    Interesting details on Rafsanjani's efforts to prevent electoral fraud, potential backroom deals with Khamenei, and logistical support to the Musavi campaign.
Frank Gallagher

Guardian - Mass arrests and campus raids as regime hits back - 0 views

  • hundreds of activists, journalists and intellectuals
  • Four pro-reform newspapers have been closed down,
  • With the exception of Yazdi, the arrests appeared to bypass political leaders and focus on their lieutenants.
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  • Tavassali
  • Nabavi
  • Atrianfar
  • The organisation said security service agents have moved into newspaper offices where they have been vetting articles and censoring content.
  • concerted campaign to link the protests with foreign intervention
  • The wave of detentions has spread beyond the capital to include provincial cities. At least 100 civic figures are understood to have been arrested in Tabriz, where Mousavi has strong support.
  • In Shiraz, in the south of the country, Amnesty cited reports said that a hundred students had been detained after security forces used teargas to storm the university library.
  • members of the Tahkim-e Vahdat, an influential students organisation supporting the other reformist candidate Mehdi Karoubi, had been "systematically targeted".
  • Jalaeipour
  • Soltani
  • Abtahi
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    Covers arrests made 12th-17th June.
Frank Gallagher

Khamenei's backing for ahmaninejad - 0 views

  • He said, "I know the country's condition is better than all these gentlemen.  I know much of what they say about the condition of the country and economy is contrary to reality.  They are mistaken."
  • Mousavi also criticized the imbalanced competition ahead of the election, noting, "These elections are held under peculiar circumstances.  Thirty provincial and six national television channels cover the president's provincial visits, which are used for campaigning purposes. 
  • Last September, as the Ahmadinejad presidency entered its last year, Khamenei told Ahmadinejad and members of his cabinet, "Work as if you plan to work for another five years; imagine that this one year plus four more years are under your management.  Look at things, work, plan and act as if that is the case."
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    Good quotes... note on TV support and provincial trips
Frank Gallagher

Iran protests: live |News |guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • 6.15pm: Iranian filmmakers Marjane Satrapi and Mohsen Makhmalbaf just held a press conference in Brussels to say they have a document proving election fraud, Adnkronos news agency reports.The document, seen here, says that Mousavi won the election with 19m votes, with cleric Mehdi Karroubi coming in second and Ahmadinejad coming in third. Satrapi and Makhmalbaf said the document had come from the Iranian electoral commission, and is dated June 13, the day after the election.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Makhmalbaf is Musavi's Spokesman.
  • Saeed reports that Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard today joined injured students at Tehran University, and condemened violence by the government and riot police.
  • A friend of the Guardian in Tehran writes that her Gmail account has been filtered, and that her internet service provider said it has been ordered to cut all emails, messaging software and many websites, especially foreign news outlets.
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  • 11am: The man who leaked the real election results from the Interior Ministry - the ones showing Ahmadinejad coming third - was killed in a suspicious car accident, according to unconfirmed reports, writes Saeed Kamali Dehghan in Tehran.Mohammad Asgari, who was responsible for the security of the IT network in Iran's interior ministry, was killed yesterday in Tehran. Asgari had reportedly leaked results that showed the elections were rigged by government use of new software to alter the votes from the provinces. Asgari was said to have leaked information that showed Mousavi had won almost 19 million votes, and should therefore be president.
Frank Gallagher

DAWN.COM | World | Rivals hold rallies amid talk of vote recount - 0 views

  • ‘Hereby we inform all foreign media representatives to avoid any news coverage which has not been coordinated or authorised by this bureau,’ a culture ministry official said.
  • ‘If the Guardians Council reaches the conclusion that such offences as buying votes or using fake identity cards have been committed... it will order a recount,’ council spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodai told the official news agency IRNA.
Frank Gallagher

Analysis: Iran election statistics muddy waters further | World news | guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • The Iranian website Balatarin posted an email said to be from an internet inspector in charge of six polling stations. It alleged that software had been rigged to register ineligible votes, including ones cast by children, dead people or by the same individual several times.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Consistent with the ballot rigging methods know to have been used in the past.
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