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Frank Gallagher

Tough Times Ahead for the Iranian Economy - Brookings Institution - 0 views

  • Iran’s economy is facing at least three large imbalances. The most acute is in the balance of payments.
  • Already some candidates are whispering that they favor lowering the exchange rate (increasing the value of the rial relative to other currencies) in order to fight inflation. These candidates would lead voters to believe that they can have their cake and eat it too
  • In these times of frozen international credit markets and economic sanctions against Iran, the second option of foreign borrowing is less likely than it was in the 1990s, but the risk of state-owned enterprises racking up foreign debts using short-term credit from eager overseas suppliers is not altogether gone. This is precisely what they did in the early 1990s, which deepened the post-oil boom slump and halted Rafsanjani’s reforms. Anticipating devaluation and government bailout, these enterprises incurred $10 billion in new short term debt alone between 1991 and 1993. Their actions forced the highly anticipated devaluation of the rial by a factor of 27 during the same period and forced the government to accept this debt as its own.
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  • Repeating the past is more likely to come in the form of the politically more palatable option of simply cutting imports. Such a policy will be costly in terms of jobs and growth, but will unfortunately appeal to any one of the current leading candidates (Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Moussavi, and Ahmadinejad), all of whom have strong dirigiste tendencies and would welcome the power over the private sector which comes with overseeing the allocation of the anticipated $40 billion of oil earnings to industries and individuals.
  • The second imbalance is in the government budget.
  • if the past is any guide, investment will take the biggest hit.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      This pattern has been repeated during Ahmadinejad's term. Soft loans were given out in order to spur the construction of new businesses, but investment levels fell as the new money was either consumed (from imports) or poured into the real estate bubble.
  • The third imbalance is in the country’s financial markets
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    Good backgrounder on the economic hurdles for whoever wins this Friday
Frank Gallagher

TIME - Marriage Crisis and Ahmadinejad - 0 views

  • By official estimates, there are currently 13 million to 15 million Iranians of marrying age; to keep that figure steady, Iran should be registering about 1.65 million marriages each year. The real figure is closer to half that.
  • The real estate boom was a disaster for middle-income Iranians, particularly young men seeking marriage partners. And many of those who have married and moved in with in-laws are finding that inflation is eating away at their savings, meaning it will take years, rather than months, to get their own place. The resulting strains are breaking up existing marriages — this past winter, local media reported that a leading cause of Iran's high divorce rate is the husband's inability to establish an independent household. Many others are concluding that marriage is best avoided altogether. (See the Top 10 Ahmadinejad-isms.)
Frank Gallagher

Myths about Iran's economy « Tyranny of numbers - 0 views

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    Interesting background info on the Iranian economy... taking issue with some oft-repeated truths.
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