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The gap between rural and urban incomes has been widening because the rural areas appear to have missed the recent boom or President Ahmadinejad’s redistribution.

Some of the gap is spurious because of the lower cost of living in rural areas (mainly housing), but the change is probably not.  

The rural-urban gap has been one of the main drivers of changes in inequality, especially in the last four years (more on this in a future post).     The gap narrowed under Mr. Moussavi’s watch, and widened during the Rafsanjani and Khatami’s administrations.  In the last three years of President Khatami’s government rural expenditures were rising faster than urban expenditures and the gap closed somewhat.  

An interesting thing is that Mehdi Karroubi is not alone in his campaign photo (see above). He is pictured with the former mayor of Tehran, Gholamhossein Karbasschi's in the circle just behind him. Perhaps the “change” slogan is not the only thing that Karroubi borrowed from the U.S. election. Has he created himself an unofficial running mate?

Iran's Guardians Council, the country's top legislative body, has announced it is ready to partially recount disputed votes cast in the June 12 presidential electio

Council spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodai is quoted by Iran's state news agency as saying that "it is possible that there may be some changes in the tally after the recount."

After the announcement, Reuters quoted a senior ally of reformist candidates Mir Hossein Musavi and Mehdi Karrubi as saying they wanted new elections held rather than a recount of "a few ballot boxes." Both candidates suffered decisive defeats, according to initial results.

Thirdly, in a departure from past practice, the Interior Ministry has changed the composition of electoral oversight committees charged with providing supervision on the electoral process. In the past, they were mostly made up of teachers, community elders and town notables. Today, a high percentage is chosen from the Basij. In small towns and communities where people know one another on a personal basis, the issue of voter intimidation can no longer be discounted. 

However, there are strong reasons to believe that these pre-8 February maneuverings, far from being serious efforts to topple Ahmadinejad, were scare tactics intended to force concessions out of the recalcitrant president. After all, the right is equally aware of the formidable array of forces ranging behind Ahmadinejad. This much was, in a rare moment of candor, admitted by one of the president's most truculent rightwing critics, Mosbahi Moghadam, the head of the parliament's economic sub-committee. "Mr Ahmadinejad already has 50 percent of the votes in his pocket," he told a newspaper reporter. 

Karoubi can appeal to many undecided voters particularly in the conservative and provincial regions

At a press conference around midnight, Mousavi declared himself "definitely the winner" based on "all indications from all over Iran."

"It is our duty to defend people's votes. There is no turning back," Mousavi said, alleging widespread irregularities.

Bringing any showdown into the streets would certainly face a swift backlash from security forces. The political chief of the powerful Revolutionary Guard cautioned Wednesday it would crush any "revolution" against the Islamic regime by Mousavi's "green movement."