There are a number of ways to measure a mobile platform’s relative success,
but if you’re looking at the number of mobile app downloads as the metric of
choice, then the analysts at ABI
Research have just predicted that Android will win it in 2013. According to
the firm’s latest forecasts, 58 percent of smartphone app downloads this year
will be Android apps, while iOS will come in at just 33 percent. But those
numbers look very different when you include tablet app downloads in the
forecast.
ABI says that smartphone apps will be downloaded 56 billion times in 2013,
and the majority of these will be either iOS or Android-based, reflecting the
duopoly that still has the majority of smartphone market share worldwide.
Earlier
this year, ABI said that Google’s Android platform would take a 57 percent
share of the global smartphone market this year, with iOS grabbing just around
21 percent. Combined, that 78 percent chunk was notably down from
the 92 percent figure that competitor Strategy Analytics’ pegged in Q4 2012,
though, hinting that there may be a little room for second-tier players.
Though the numbers from rival houses tend to vary, what the firms can seem to
agree on in general terms is that Android has a bigger piece of the overall
smartphone market worldwide, and they’re expecting that trend to continue this
year. Realistically, it’s probably too soon to call the numbers for 2013, given
that China is still very much in play this year, as smartphone adoption is now
surging in that country. Just this February, for example, China
passed the U.S. to become the world’s top country for active Android and iOS
smartphones and tablets. And Apple is certainly not ignoring China either,
with CEO
Tim Cook stating that China would become Apple’s most important market.
There have been ongoing
rumors of differently priced devices for China’s newest smartphone
customers, and Apple recently
added options that allow Chinese customers to buy Apple devices on
credit.
That being said, Android’s traction in the low-cost smartphone space can’t be
discounted, either. However, ABI also predicts that Android’s gains will encourage more
developers to go the Android-first route this year, and that’s not as likely a
conclusion. Though Android may see more raw downloads due to its market share
figures, studies
show that Apple is still the revenue leader when it comes to how
developers are monetizing their applications both as paid apps, as well as
through in-app purchases, upgrades and virtual goods. It’s hard
for new developers to make money as it is, so they’re still gravitating
towards the Apple App Store when it comes to their revenue-generation
efforts.
ABI also says today that iOS has the lead in tablet app downloads – another
reason why the Android-first predication seems a little shaky. Of the around 14
billion tablet apps it’s expecting in 2013, 75 percent will be for the iPad,
with Android (excluding the Kindle Fire) accounting for just 17 percent. Amazon
will see around 4 percent market share here, and Windows tablets will barely eke
out 2 percent, the firm claims.
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