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Brian Butler

Predictive markets to predict trends… | GloboTrends blog - 0 views

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    Hubdub review
Colin Bennett

7 Tech Trends for 2009 - 0 views

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    The trendspotters at JWT are predicting: - The mobile device as everything hub: Mobile rules. If you're a marketer, take note, made-for-PC sites don't make the cut for a mobile experience. - Customizable mobile: Apple's iPhone made mobile applications all the rage and other smartphone makers are having to follow suit. JWT says watch for more open mobile systems and an "onslaught" of mobile apps. - Decline of email: If you've tried emailing a teen lately you may have noticed that's considered only slightly less old-school than two tin cans and a string when it comes to communications. Text messaging, social networks like Facebook and Twitter are increasingly preferred by email recipients who are ready to cry uncle under the weight of their inboxes. According to JWT, after a decade of dominance, email will gradually be eclipsed by more efficient, manageable solutions. Hear, hear. - Cloud Computing: Software, storage -- everything we needed in our desktop computers or carried around in our laptops is now in the 'cloud.' Wikipedia calls the cloud a metaphor for the Internet, an explanation that is difficult to convey to new users. I found myself trying to explain this to a friend as I was helping her set up a netbook she received as a Christmas present. She wanted to know: Was it on the computer? On a disk? On a USB drive? I just waved my hands in the air and said 'it's all on the Internet now.' That, plus the appearance of 600 of her holiday photos on an online photo site seemed to convince her. - Social networking for jobseekers: With companies handing out more pink slips than Christmas bonuses in the past month or so, jobseekers who know how to maximize the benefits of such sites as LinkedIn and others will find those social networking skills could come in handy. - Web/TV convergence: This prediction has been paraded out in one form or another for quite a while and no telling if 2009 will be its year. The convergence of entertainment media on one viewing device
Colin Bennett

An Economic Prediction That Actually Came True - Freakonomics Blog - NYTimes.com - 0 views

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    Blog readers have two days to make one-sentence predictions as to the most unexpected major news story of 2009.
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    With prediction markets being all the rage, this article from Freakonomics is timely.
Brian Butler

GloboTrends Wiki / FrontPage - 0 views

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    Top Trends for 2009: On our GloboTrends wiki homepage, we will keep an updated list of global macro trends that we think are the most important to keep an eye on. Some of this list are statistically unlikely to occur, but if they did, it could cause global disruption. These unlikely events were dubbed Black Swan's in a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb , or might be called the "fat tail" probability in statistics. Others trends we are watching in the GloboTrends wiki are currently ongoing right now (such as our coverage of the credit crisis, deleveraging, margin calls, etc), and we will talk about how they happened, and predict their likely outcome. The format of a wiki makes the document dynamic, so any of our community is welcome to help shape our views of these important developments. Please log in to our wiki, and feel free to comment... In no particular order, here are the global macro trends that we think will be most significant in the coming year (2009): 1. credit crisis of 2007/08 will continue on into 2009...this one is clear...but, how long will it last? how will it fundamentally change international finance? Add your comments to our wiki... 2. fiscal stimulus and crisis recovery 2009 3. deleveraging of Financial markets will continue. In my opinion, this is the most destructive of all the trends. 4. Risk of deflation in the US as Fed Funds target rate approaches zero (other analysts see the opposite risk of potential hyper inflation). Add your comments.. 5. more... add to this list.. Predictions-for-2009
Colin Bennett

Deutsche Bank predicts second solar "gold-rush" - 0 views

  • Leading investment house Deutsche Bank has dramatically lifted its demand forecasts for the global solar industry – predicting that 46 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV will be installed across the world in 2014, before jumping by another 25 per cent to 56GW in 2015.
Colin Bennett

Distributed energy storage - 0 views

  • Most recently, they've been piloting distributed energy storage (DES). If the predictions below are true, DES could be a real game-changer.
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    "Most recently, they've been piloting distributed energy storage (DES). If the predictions below are true, DES could be a real game-changer."
Colin Bennett

Global ad spend predicted to grow 5%, more in digital - 2 views

  • In terms of media type, digital outperforms previous predictions for 2014 with year-on-year growth forecast at 16.1%. Digital will also increase its total share of spend, reaching 20.5% in 2014 and 22.6% next year, when it will out-pace the combined magazines and newspaper global share for the first time.
Colin Bennett

Rio Tinto predicts continued strong commodities demand from China, then India - 0 views

  • MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA — China's demand for iron ore, copper, coal and aluminum will increase dramatically during the next 15 years before India takes the lead in its need for those commodities, global miner Rio Tinto Ltd. predicted in its annual report released Tuesday.
Glycon Garcia

Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy | Video on TED.com - 0 views

  • Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy
  • What's the key to using alternative energy, like solar and wind? Storage -- so we can have power on tap even when the sun's not out and the wind's not blowing. In this accessible, inspiring talk, Donald Sadoway takes to the blackboard to show us the future of large-scale batteries that store renewable energy. As he says: "We need to think about the problem differently. We need to think big. We need to think cheap." Donald S
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    "Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy Tweet this talk! (we'll add the headline and the URL) Post to: Share on Twitter Email This Favorite Download inShare Share on StumbleUpon Share on Reddit Share on Facebook TED Conversations Got an idea, question, or debate inspired by this talk? Start a TED Conversation, or join one of these: Green Home Energy=Hydrogen Generators-alternative sources Started by Kathleen Gilligan-Smith 1 Comment What is the real missing link in renewable energy? Started by Enrico Petrucco 8 Comments Comment on this Talk 60 total comments Sign in to add comments or Join (It's free and fast!) Sort By: smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Nice smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Good David Mackey 0 Reply 3 hours ago: Superb invention, but I would suggest one more standard mantra that they should move on from and that is the idea of power being supplied by a centralised grid. This technology seems to me to be much more beneficial on a local scale, what if every home had its own battery, then home power generation becomes economically more viable for everyone. If you could show that a system like this could pay for itself in say 5 years then every home would want one. Plus for this to be implemented on a large scale requires massive investment that could be decades away. Share the technology and lets get it in homes by next year. Great ted talk. Jon Senior 0 Reply 1 hour ago: I agree 100%. Localised energy production would also make energy consumers more conscious of their consumption and encourage efforts to reduce it. We can invent and invent all we want, but the fast solution to allowing renewable energies to take centre stage is to reduce the base energy draw. With lower baseline consumption, smaller "always on" generators are required to keep the grid operational. Town and house-l
Colin Bennett

European Power Cable Installation In Offshore Wind - 0 views

  • 1. Industry outlookThe report's baseline deployment forecast, shows Europe achieving between 26 - 27GW of installed capacity by 2020, of which around 23GW is new installations.Such deployment would:- Occur mainly in the UK and Germany.- Require around 3,500 turbines plus associated infrastructure.- Cost upwards of £75 billion (€86 billion) based on current industry practices.2. Power cable demandGrowth in resulting cable installations will be significant, with an estimated 6,000km of export cable, 2,000km of EU inter-connector cable and 6,500km of array cable installations by 2020.The report's findings show:- In terms of total cable installations, the report predicts that demand will more than double over the period to 2020, with growth of between 2.5 and 3.0 times that of 2011 occurring in both export and array installations.- A near-doubling of export and inter-connector installations by 2016. Thereafter, growth is limited as HVDC use increases and general industry growth slows.- A 250% rise in array cable installations from 350km in 2011 to 900km by 2020.3. Export cable supply vs. demandThe authors estimate that annual export cable installation supply currently stands at around 600 - 650km (vs. 500km 2011 demand). Identified capacity additions are limited. Our analysis shows that export cable installation capacity needs to increase by around 75% within 2 - 3 years if demand is to be met.
Colin Bennett

5 Predictions for Asia Pacific's Power T&D and Utility Industry in 2014 - 1 views

  • The growing economies such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Myanmar are likely to focus more on the transmission grid expansion and reliability. Rural electrification and increasing the overall electrification ratio will be their top priority.
Colin Bennett

Turbulence in the Markets: How Speculators Are Crippling the Copper Industry - SPIEGEL ... - 0 views

  • This is, in fact, the crux of the argument: It isn't enough to simply establish clear rules in a trading center. Governments can only successfully combat speculators if they coordinate their efforts worldwide and remove the cloak of secrecy from their commodities transactions. As long as this fails to happen, the price of copper will remain unpredictable and industry will be at the mercy of speculators. Companies will no longer be able to assume that copper will be expensive when it's scarce and cheap when it's available in abundance. Speculation destroys the basic signaling function that prices have in a market economy, says Heiner Flassbeck, chief economist at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Although a lot of money moves around as a result of price distortions, speculation doesn't create any real value, says Flassbeck. "The only thing that's created is an illusion of value." Making Life Difficult for Everyone In the end, the popular assessment that speculators are the purest of capitalists is by no means correct. In truth, they are the biggest enemies of the market, because they undermine its central mechanism, the efficient balancing of supply and demand. In doing so, they make life difficult for everyone: for industry, which can no longer predict how expensive its raw materials will be; for consumers, who are forced to bear the costs; and, finally, for copper producers, who face more risk when planning ahead. When the executives at CODELCO in Santiago make investment decisions today, it will be another three to five years before the results become visible. That's how long it takes to develop a new mine or expand an existing mine. The company plans to invest about $15 billion by 2015, but its executives have never been so uncertain about whether their predictions are correct. One thing is clear: Production costs will continue to rise. Now that deposits near the surface, which are easier to mine, are becoming depleted, mining companies are forced to dig deeper and deeper pits.
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Solar Power From Saharan Sun Could Provide Europe's Electricity, Says EU - CommonDreams... - 0 views

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    Dwarfed by any of the north African nations, it represents an area slightly smaller than Wales but scientists claimed yesterday it could one day generate enough solar energy to supply all of Europe with clean electricity. Speaking at the Euroscience Open Forum in Barcelona, Arnulf Jaeger-Walden of the European commission's Institute for Energy, said it would require the capture of just 0.3% The scientists are calling for the creation of a series of huge solar farms - producing electricity either through photovoltaic cells, or by concentrating the sun's heat to boil water and drive turbines - as part of a plan to share Europe's renewable energy resources across the continent. A new supergrid, transmitting electricity along high voltage direct current cables would allow countries such as the UK and Denmark ultimately to export wind energy at times of surplus supply, as well as import from other green sources such as geothermal power in Iceland. Energy losses on DC lines are far lower than on the traditional AC ones, which make transmission of energy over long distances uneconomic. The grid proposal, which has won political support from both Nicholas Sarkozy and Gordon Brown, answers the perennial criticism that renewable power will never be economic because the weather is not sufficiently predictable. Its supporters argue that even if the wind is not blowing hard enough in the North Sea, it will be blowing somewhere else in Europe, or the sun will be shining on a solar farm somewhere.
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Battling BHP and Rio to post record profits - 0 views

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    Mining giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto should post record half-year profits as they reap the benefits of an industrial commodities boom, and are likely to use the results to bolster their arguments in a $123 billion (66 billion pound) takeover stand-off. Both are also likely to outline big expansions in key profit sectors such as copper and iron ore, where analysts predict higher prices next year on the back of strong demand for imported raw materials from China's industrial sector. Consenus figures based on forecasts by 20 analysts and provided by BHP point to a 12 percent rise in annual net profit to $15.4 billion, suggesting second-half profit will have risen 30 percent to $9.4 billion from $7.2 billion previously. Analysts polled by Reuters Estimates forecast Rio's January-June underlying profit will have risen 40 percent to $5.2 billion. BHP's financial year ends June 30, while Rio follows the calendar year.
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H.P. Buys Wireless Network Infrastructure Company - 0 views

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    Hewlett-Packard said on Monday it plans to buy Colubris Networks, furthering the consolidation of wireless networking companies. Financial terms were not disclosed. HP said the deal should close by the end of fiscal 2008, which occurs in October. Colubris, founded in 2000 and based in Waltham, Massachusetts, sells wireless access infrastructure products based around the 802.11n wireless standard, which can match or best the speeds of a plugged-in broadband connection. But the upgrade to 802.11n poses many issues for it to work efficiently. Colubris has centered many of its products around the predicted upgrade of those networks over the next few years. Colubris also sells wireless security and network management products. HP said products from Colubris will be incorporated into its ProCurve Networking portfolio, which will improve HP's ability to serve the health-care, transportation, manufacturing and education markets, among others. In June, Belden said it would buy WLAN vendor Trapeze Networks for US$133 million
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The Lithium Battery Race - 0 views

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    A U.S. government official said dramatic improvements to lithium batteries are needed before they can efficiently power vehicles. Experts believe lithium-ion batteries are widely predicted to replace nickel metal-hydride batteries currently used in most hybrid vehicles like Toyota Co's popular Prius. The biggest challenges are extending the life of high-power lithium batteries and bringing down their relatively high cost, Tien Duong of the U.S. Department of Energy said on the sidelines of a lithium battery conference held at this government laboratory. "Life means 10 years, plus. For hybrids we know (their batteries) last 10 years plus. For the PHEV (plug-in electric vehicle), we don't know," Duong said. He did not specify what the costs should be. "One of the phenomenons that cuts short the life of the battery is power. You may have a lot of energy, but if you run out of power, that's no good," he said.
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Nanosolar outshines the competition with a $300M financing - 0 views

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    Thin-film solar company Nanosolar has been sitting on a big secret for much of this year, it turns out: The company took a $300 million financing this March, and has remained mum ever since, only detailing it on the company's blog this morning after VentureWire reported the funding. While Nanosolar hasn't been entirely secretive about its technology, with chief executive Martin Rosencheisen showing off a rapid manufacturing technique early in summer, but apparently it didn't want details leaking on this giant-sized investment until necessary. Word slipped out in April about $50 million of the total, but at the time, Nanosolar didn't want to talk - and it's now clear why. The race for funds, and ever-larger production targets, is definitely on for thin film. Secretive thin-film silicon company Optisolar has raised over $200 million this year, and Nanosolar's thin-film CIGS competitor Miasole is trying to close on a similar amount. And while dozens of other startups are also on the hunt, large companies like Oerlikon Solar and Applied Materials are pouring money into ventures of their own. In many ways, it looks like an overheated sector. But on the other hand, Optisolar's recent deal with PG&E to provide 550 megawatts of electricity suggests that the potential for thin film panels is larger than previously expected, even when considering one analyst firm's prediction earlier this year that the sector will grow at 45 percent annually. That figure could now be much higher, especially for a few big winners - of which Nanosolar will likely be one. The company will be doing some utility-scale projects of its own, Rosencheisen tells us, with experienced partners. It also has a panel built specifically for use by utilities. And one of the backers of this funding, AES Corp., is also one of the world's biggest power companies. At the moment, Nanosolar is still working toward a gigawatt of annual manufacturing capacity, but it will grow be
Colin Bennett

Five cleantech predictions for 2009 - 0 views

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    Here's the five cleantech trends
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PV's "Moore's Law" Required To Drive Increased Material Efficiency - 0 views

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    The road to grid parity for PV power generation will be difficult, needing five or more years to compete with utility power, unsubsidized, on a large scale, noted Mark Thirsk, managing partner at Linx Consulting, at a recent SEMI PV forecast luncheon (Sept. 18) in Santa Clara, CA Most input materials for PV production are in relative oversupply and will not constrain production, Thirsk pointed out - and for this reason manufacturers are conservative about capacity investment. In particular, his PV module production forecast (see Fig. 1, above) shows an overstep in demand in 2008. One reason for suppliers' reluctance to build capacity for entering the silicon supply chain is that it is an inefficient process. "Only about 15% of all the silicon going into the supply chain goes into the wafers, so it's a pretty wasteful and capital intensive process, so there is a lot of reluctance to build capacity," said Thirsk. Despite the efficiency challenges, Thirsk's forecast indicates that an oversupply may occur in 2009 Because >40% of PV grade silicon is lost at the wafering step, Thirsk believes this represents a significant opportunity for the right technology. Additionally, diamond wire is a potential replacement for slurry technology, but this technology is still immature. In the crystalline silicon (c-Si) value chain, Thirsk sees opportunities for optimizing mono-crystalline wafers with metal wrap technology and backside contacts; process optimization and material improvements would improve cell efficiency, and glass, wafer, backsheet, and grid improvements can enable more efficient light capture. Looking ahead, Thirsk told the audience that while thin-film technologies will enjoy strong growth "and may be more attractive to value-add materials and equipment suppliers, thin-film cell production will remain a minority share for the medium term." (see Fig. 3, below) He closed his presentation encouraging the creation of a Moore's Law type of roadmap for the PV
Colin Bennett

Copper Costs Lots Of Pretty Pennies -- Ethernet -- InformationWeek - 0 views

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    In a December report, Gartner analyst Ken Dulaney predicted that by the end of 2011, 70% of all new worldwide voice and data client-to-LAN connections will be wireless. The firm also estimated that $100 billion will be wasted over the coming five years following outdated network design principles.
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