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Wade Ren

The end of Bretton Woods 2? - 0 views

  • The Bretton Woods 2 system – where China and then the oil-exporters provided (subsidized) financing to the US to sustain their exports – will come close to ending, at least temporarily. If the US and Europe are not importing much, the rest of the world won’t be exporting much.
  • And rather than ending with a whimper, Bretton Woods 2 may end with a bang. In some sense Bretton Woods 2 has been on life support for a while now. China’s recent export growth has depended far more on Europe than on the US. US demand for non-oil imports peaked in 2006. One irony of the past year is that the US was borrowing far more from China that it was buying from China. Campaign rhetoric that the US was paying for Saudi oil with funds borrowed from China isn’t far off – though it leaves out the fact that the US also borrows from Saudi Arabia to pay for Venezuelan, Mexican and Nigerian oil.
  • If Bretton Woods 2 ends in 2009 – if US demand for imports falls sharply in the last part of 2008 and early 2009, bringing the US trade deficit down – it won’t have ended in the way Nouriel and I outlined back in late 2004 and early 2005. We postulated that foreign demand for US debt would dry up – pushing up US Treasury rates and delivering a nasty shock to a housing-centric economy. As Brad DeLong notes, it didn’t quite play out that way. The US and European banking system collapsed before the balance of financial terror collapsed. Dr. DeLong writes: All of us from Lawrence Summers to John Taylor were expecting a very different financial crisis. We were expecting the ‘Balance of Financial Terror’ between Asia and America to collapse and produce chaos. We are not having that financial crisis. Instead we are having a very different financial crisis. Catastrophic failures of risk management throughout the entire banking sector caused a relatively minor collapse in housing prices to freeze up global finance to a degree that has not been seen since the Great Depression. The end result of this crisis though could be rather similar: a sharp contraction in credit, a fall in US economic activity, a fall in US imports and a fall in the amount of foreign financing the US needs.* The US government is (possibly) trying to offset the fall in private demand by borrowing more and spending more — but as of now there is realistic risk that the fall in private activity will trump the fiscal stimulus.
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  • Or, to put it more succinctly, Bretton Woods 2, as it evolved, hinged both on the willingness of foreign central banks to take the currency risk associated with lending to the US at low rates in dollars despite the United States large current account deficit AND the willingness of private financial intermediaries to take the credit risk associated with lending at low rates to highly-indebted US households.
  • But now US financial institutions are neither willing nor able to take on the risk of lending even more to US households. For a while the US government was able to ramp up its lending to households (notably through the Agencies) and in the process effectively take over the function previously performed by the private financial system (over the last four quarters, the flow of funds data indicates that the Agencies provided around $800 billion of net credit to US households). But now the US government is struggling to keep the financial system from collapsing. It doesn’t seem like it will able to avoid a sharp fall in the overall availability of credit.
  • It is now clear how the financial sector kept profits up: it took on more risk, as it shifted from borrowing short to buy safe long-term assets (Treasuries and Agencies) to borrowing short to buy risky long-term assets. Leverage in the system also increased (and for some broker dealers that seems to be an understatement), as more and more financial institutions believed that the US had entered into an era of little macroeconomic or financial volatility. The net result seems to have been a truly explosive concentration of risk in the hands of a core set of financial intermediaries in the US and Europe. Securitization – it seems – actually didn’t disperse risk into the hands of institutions able to handle it.
  • I hope that the process of adjustment now underway isn’t as sharp as I fear. The US economy gradually can shift from producing MBS for sale to US investors flush with cash from the sale of safe securities to China and Saudi Arabia to producing goods and services for export – but it cannot shift from churning out complex debt securities to producing goods and services overnight. Indeed, in a slowing US and global economy, improvements in the US deficit will likely come from faster falls in US imports than in US exports – not from ongoing growth in US exports.
  • But right now it looks like there is a real risk that the adjustment won’t be gradual. And it certainly looks like the flow of Chinese (and Gulf) savings to US households over the past few years has produced one of the largest misallocations of global capital in recent history.
  • US taxpayers are going to be hit with a large tab for the credit risk taken on by undercapitalized financial intermediaries. Chinese taxpayers may get hit with a similar tab for the losses their central bank incurred by overpaying for US and European assets as part of its policy of holding its exchange rate down. The TARP is around 5% of US GDP. There are plausible estimates that China’s currency losses will prove to be of comparable magnitude. Charles Dumas puts the cost at above 5% of GDP: “Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research estimates that China makes 1-2 per cent on its (largely) dollar reserves. It then loses up to 10 per cent on the exchange rate and suffers a Chinese inflation rate of 6 per cent for a total real return in renminbi of about minus 15 per cent. That is a loss of $270bn a year, or a stunning 7-8 per cent of gross domestic product.”
  • Jboss — if some of the Chinese inflow could be redirected into investment in alternative energy, that would indeed be a win/ win. Some infrastructure bank style ideas have promise in my view — basically, the flow that used to go to freddie/ fannie could go to wind farms and the like. I would rather see more adjustment in china (i.e. more investment in Chinese infrastructure) but during the transition, if there is one, to a lower Chinese surplus, redirecting chinese financing toward new energy tech would be offer real benefits.
  • China likes 3rd generation nuclear power. Safe, lower cost than NG or coal, very much lower cost than coal with carbon sequestering, and zero carbon footprint. Wind is about 4X more expensive than our electric costs now. That’s in an area with consistent wind. Solar is worse. I don’t know if we can sucker them into investing in our technical fairy tales. Here’s a easy primer on 3rd gen nukes. http://nuclearinfo.net/Nuclearpower/WebHomeCostOfNuclearPower
    • Wade Ren
       
      is this true?
  • btw, solar thermal installations are so easy & affordable to retrofit onto existing structures, it’s amazing that there aren’t more of them here…until you realize that they work to decentralize energy. cedric — china is already doing it in china. they are way ahead of the curve over there. my partner brought back some photos of shanghai — rows of middle class homes each with a small solar panel on top. and that’s just the tip of the iceberg — an architect friend just came back from beijing and wants to move to china (he’s into designing self-powering structures and is incredibly frustrated by the bureaucracy and cost-prohibitive measures in the US).
  • I went to engineering school right after the Arab Oil Embargo, and alternative energy was a hot topic then. All the same stuff you hear of nowadays. They even offered entire courses on it , which I took. Then my first mini career was in the power plant biz, before Volker killed it with interest rates and the Saudies killed any interest in alt. energy with their big oil field discovery. For the last 5 years I’ve been researching what’s changed, and it is frighteningly little. Solar cells are still expensive and only have a 15% conversion efficiency. They developed the new cost reduced film technology, but that knocks down efficiency to 7%. Wind power works where there is wind constantly. Generators are mature technology and are already 90 some percent efficient. Geothermal, tidal, ect. work where they are available. Looks like coal gasification and synfuel is out because it makes too much CO2. Good news is 3rd gen nuclear is way better than 1st gen plants. Hybrid cars are good, and battery technology is finally getting barely good enough for all electric cars to be practical.
  • According to news report today, Japan’s trade surplus is less than 1 billion $ in September 08, a whopping 94% decrease compared to September 07. Does it imply that going forward Japan can not buy as much treasury as before?
Colin Bennett

TC 61 - Safety of household and similar electrical appliances - 0 views

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    TC 61 - Safety of household and similar electrical appliances
Colin Bennett

Switches for household and similar fixed-electrical installations - 1 views

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    "Switches for household and similar fixed-electrical installations"
Colin Bennett

Energy Access Practitioner Network | Sustainable Energy For All - 0 views

  • As part of the Sustainable Energy for All Initiative, the United Nations Foundation has formed a global Energy Access Practitioner Network.The Network focuses on both household and community- level electrification for productive purposes, incorporating specific market-based applications for health, agriculture, education, small business, communities and household solutions. 
anonymous

A new era for commodities - McKinsey Quarterly - Energy, Resources, Materials - Environ... - 1 views

  • A new era for commodities
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    A new era for commodities Cheap resources underpinned economic growth for much of the 20th century. The 21st will be different. NOVEMBER 2011 * Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, and Fraser Thompson Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Sustainability & Resource Productivity Practice In This Article Exhibit: In little more than a decade, soaring commodity prices have erased a century of steady declines. About the authors Comments (2) Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, volatile commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past eight years alone, they have undone the decline of the previous century, rising to levels not seen since the early 1900s (exhibit). In addition, volatility is now greater than at any time since the oil-shocked 1970s because commodity prices increasingly move in lockstep. Our analysis suggests that they will remain high and volatile for at least the next 20 years if current trends hold-barring a major macroeconomic shock-as global resource markets oscillate in response to surging global demand and inelastic supplies. Back to top Demand for energy, food, metals, and water should rise inexorably as three billion new middle-class consumers emerge in the next two decades.1 The global car fleet, for example, is expected almost to double, to 1.7 billion, by 2030. In India, we expect calorie intake per person to rise by 20 percent during that period, while per capita meat consumption in China could increase by 60 percent, to 80 kilograms (176 pounds) a year. Demand for urban infrastructure also will soar. China, for example, could annually add floor space totaling 2.5 times the entire residential and commercial square footage of the city of Chicago, while India could add floor space equal to another Chicago every year. Such dramatic growth in demand for commodities actually isn't unusual. Similar factors were at play throughout the 20th century as the planet's population tripled and demand for various resource
Colin Bennett

Australian government pulls the plug on household solar - 2 views

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    "As a storm raged over the government's directive to the Clean Energy Finance Corporation to no longer back wind energy projects, it emerged that it has also put a stop to solar investments other than the largest industrial-scale projects."
xxx xxx

Air Conditioners in Egypt - 0 views

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    Monday, 28 July 2008 \nGuangdong Chigo Air Conditioner, a large-sized modern enterprise integrating the development, production and sales of household and commercial air conditioners, recently announced its agent in Egypt successfully won the contract for the Huawei correspondence station in Egypt after seven hardworking months.\n\n Huawei is said to have already achieved 12.56 billion dollars sales revenue, becoming one of the top five global telecommunications equipment producer, now with primacy globally, especially in Africa. Contracts for the correspondence station of Huawei in Egypt were mainly in the hands of Carrier for a long time, which means other brands could not compete with it and usually did not pass the test phase. Because the equipment for each station was valued at over 300 thousand yuan, the AC units could not run for a long time without a reliable capability guarantee. Right now the first set of Chigo splits is already installed in the station.\n\nThe vice president of Chigo Overseas Marketing Department , Mr. Peter Liao, said :"The success of this project means a lot for us. The intergrated ability of Chigo is already at new stage, being the supplier of a globally famous communication company. The cooperation with Huawei is meaningful for Chigo's development in the North African and African markets." For the success of the Huawei project, Huawei's subsidiaries in Libya and Sudan have also started to cooperate with Chigo, reveals the company's press release. \n\n\n
xxx xxx

GM Adding World's Largest Rooftop Solar Power System to Plant - 0 views

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    General Motors (GM) announced that it is adding the world's largest rooftop solar photovoltaic power installation to its car assembly plant located in Figueruelas, Zaragoza, Spain. When the project is completed in fall 2008, the Zaragoza solar installation will cover about 2 million square feet of roof at the plant and include about 85,000 solar panels. When fully operational, the Zaragoza solar installation will generate about 12 megawatts of power at its highest output. The installation will generate about 15.1 million kWh of power annually, which is equivalent to the demand of 4,575 households with an average annual consumption of 3,300 kWh in Spain. "The Zaragoza project demonstrates proof that GM is actively accelerating our efforts to be part of the solution to the environmental issues and challenges facing our world," said Gary Cowger, GM group vice president of global manufacturing and labor relations. "We are proud to be a global leader in the usage of renewable energy."
xxx xxx

Rohm and Haas Reports Strong 2Q '08 Results; Elec. Tech. Segment Up 16% - 0 views

shared by xxx xxx on 24 Jul 08 - Cached
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    Rohm and Haas Company has reported second quarter 2008 sales of $2,567 million, a 17% increase over the same period in 2007, with Electronic Materials and the chemical businesses outside North America delivering strong growth. The Electronic Materials Group comprises two reportable segments which provide materials for use in applications such as telecommunications, consumer electronics and household appliances. Sales for the Electronic Materials Group were $536 million in the second quarter of 2008, up 34% over the same period in 2007, reflecting the impact of acquisitions in Display Technologies as well as solid organic growth of Electronic Technologies. The Electronic Technologies segment is comprised of the company's Semiconductor Technologies, Circuit Board Technologies and Packaging and Finishing Technologies business units. Sales for the segment of $460 million were up 16% versus the second quarter of 2007, driven by strong growth in Asia for all business units. Sales in the second quarter excluding precious metals pass-through sales were up 15%. Semiconductor Technologies sales grew 13%, reflecting strong demand and favorable currencies, particularly in the Asia Pacific Region. Circuit Board Technologies sales increased 20% as compared to the same period last year, with solid growth in the Asia Pacific Region more than offsetting declines in North America. Packaging and Finishing Technologies sales rose 20% versus last year, primarily driven by strong growth in precious metal sales and in process sales. Adjusted pre-tax earnings for this segment of $107 million were up 11% from the second quarter of 2007, reflecting increased demand and favorable currencies, partially offset by higher metal costs and increased costs related to expansion efforts, including the new Asia Technical Center in Taiwan.\n\n\n
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    Growth in Asia is illustrated from this reporting at multiple levels of business - Opportunities are available for copper in a multitude of applications.
xxx xxx

Honda May Begin Exporting Solar Modules - 0 views

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    Honda Motor Company (NYSE: HMC) may begin exporting solar modules after completing the planned expansion of it's solar manufacturing facility later this year, according to a Reuters report. The company intends to increase its annual capacity to 27.5 megawatts (MW). Honda's solar subsidiary Honda Soltec Co. began producing photovoltaic solar modules in October 2007. The solar modules incorporate copper, indium, gallium and selenium, as opposed to traditional panels produced from silicon. The company reportedly has sold 3-kilowatt systems domestically to about 100 households for 3 million yen--the equivalent of about US$18,200. Honda also intends to use solar cells in a U.S. test project for next-generation gas stations that would use solar power to produce hydrogen from water for powering fuel cell vehicles, such as Honda's FCX Clarity.
Colin Bennett

Getting more speed from humble copper - 02 Oct 2008 - NZ Herald: Technology, Computer, ... - 0 views

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    But the humble copper cabling linking most households to the internet looks set to remain a feature of our national IT infrastructure for some time yet.
Colin Bennett

EU lawmakers agree recycling goals to cut landfill | Environment | Reuters - 0 views

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    The European Parliament voted for the goal of recycling or re-using half of the main types of EU household waste by 2020 and 70 percent of all waste from building and demolition. Over 1.8 billion tonnes of waste are generated each year in Europe, equating to 3.5 tonnes per person, of which less than a third is recycled.
Colin Bennett

Clean Break :: European homes to have $5,200 fuel cell by 2010: Acumentrics - 0 views

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    Interesting story in the Boston Globe about Westwood, Mass.-based Acumentrics, a maker of solid-oxide fuel cells. The article states the the company is working with Italian heating products firm Merloni TermoSanitari to develop a commercial household version of its fuel cell, which would hit the European market by 2010 and cost around $5,200.
Colin Bennett

Matsushita to sell home-use fuel cells in 2009 | Cleantech.com - 0 views

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    The hydrogen-based cogeneration systems could reduce primary household energy consumption by 22 percent.
Susanna Keung

China - Boost for copper as China plans auto and home appliance stimulus - 0 views

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    The Chinese government said that it would expand an existing subsidy program to encourage the purchase of new vehicles and home appliances, thereby boosting domestic spending. China will now allocate 5B yuan ($733M) for owners of light trucks and passenger vans who upgrade to new models. It also plans to spend 2B yuan ($293M) to fund discounts of new purchases of home appliances when customers turn in old goods, which will possibly give support to domestic copper demand. The plan will apply to almost all household appliances, including air-conditioners, television sets, refrigerators, washing machines and computers. Exports of these have been weak and the plan will help local producers to de-stock more quickly.
Colin Bennett

The decline of the landline - 0 views

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    IF YOU want to save money, cut the cord. In these difficult times ever more Americans are heeding this advice and dropping their telephone landlines in favour of mobile phones (see article). Despite some of the flakiest mobile-network coverage in the developed world, one in four households has now gone mobile-only. At current rates the last landline in America will be disconnected sometime in 2025.
Colin Bennett

EU takes first steps towards a smart grid - 0 views

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    The EU energy package has officially come into force with two Directives and three Regulations aimed at creating an integrated Europe-wide energy market that will drive the first steps toward a smart grid. The gas and electricity market Directives require that EU member states implement "intelligent metering systems that shall assist the active participation of consumers". By 2020, the Directive targets that 80% of households in Europe should be equipped with smart electricity meters and that a complete rollout should be achieved by 2022.
Colin Bennett

LS Cable & System develops Korea's first electric vehicle cord set for household use - 0 views

  • The cord set satisfies all International Electric Commission specifications and requirements, so LS Cable & System has now climbed to an advantageous position for entry into the global market, which is currently dominated by Voltec of the U.S. and Toyota of Japan.
Colin Bennett

2015 World car sales forecast 74 million cars, China 19 million, USA 17 million - 0 views

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    "Despite growing concerns about an economic slowdown in the most populous nation, demand for new automobiles continues to be driven by rising vehicle ownership in tier 2 and 3 cities, especially for CUVs, which are advancing by 40% per annum. Luxury models also continue to outperform alongside rising wealth and as households shift their purchases from a weakening real estate market. "
Colin Bennett

The economics of solar photovoltaic systems - 0 views

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    "Their main finding was that companies using low-cost financing to buy PV systems, and households taking out solar-specific loans, can achieve savings of up to 30% compared to leasing a PV system through a conventional third-party owner."
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