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* Momentum strengthened in the latter half of 2013, and should strengthen further in 2014-largely due to improvements in the advanced economies. * Yet, global growth is still stuck in low gear. It remains below its potential, which we think is somewhere around 4 percent. * Even for the advanced economies, however, the outlook is still subject to significant risks. With inflation running below many central banks' targets, we see rising risks of deflation, which could prove disastrous for the recovery. * During the years of crisis, we have relied on the emerging markets to keep the global economy afloat. Together with the developing countries, they accounted for three-quarters of global growth over the past half decade. However, a growing number of emerging markets are slowing down as the economic cycle turns.

"The rise to the top of global construction, which coincides with China's displacement of Japan as the world's second-largest economy, underlines a decade- long power shift in the industry from the mature markets of the US, Japan and western Europe to China, India and a clutch of smaller emerging economies."

The commodity super-cycle is not over, it is just pausing. For the world economy to resume growth of 5 per cent, energy supply must expand by a similar rate. But with lower oil prices and a credit crunch, energy investment is plummeting, suggesting global energy demand will eventually pick up more rapidly than productive energy capacity. Assuming the ongoing global recession does not turn into a multi-year event that pushes energy demand down structurally, steep decline rates could again put upward pressure on oil prices as soon as 2010 or 2011. In particular, if the low oil price/high cost of money environment persists for most of this year and next, our base case scenario for non-OPEC production could prove optimistic, exacerbating the second leg of the commodity super-cycle. If and when the global economy starts to recover, too many dollars chasing too few barrels will only lead to much higher oil prices.

A new era for commodities Cheap resources underpinned economic growth for much of the 20th century. The 21st will be different. NOVEMBER 2011 * Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, and Fraser Thompson Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Sustainability & Resource Productivity Practice In This Article Exhibit: In little more than a decade, soaring commodity prices have erased a century of steady declines. About the authors Comments (2) Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, volatile commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past eight years alone, they have undone the decline of the previous century, rising to levels not seen since the early 1900s (exhibit). In addition, volatility is now greater than at any time since the oil-shocked 1970s because commodity prices increasingly move in lockstep. Our analysis suggests that they will remain high and volatile for at least the next 20 years if current trends hold-barring a major macroeconomic shock-as global resource markets oscillate in response to surging global demand and inelastic supplies. Back to top Demand for energy, food, metals, and water should rise inexorably as three billion new middle-class consumers emerge in the next two decades.1 The global car fleet, for example, is expected almost to double, to 1.7 billion, by 2030. In India, we expect calorie intake per person to rise by 20 percent during that period, while per capita meat consumption in China could increase by 60 percent, to 80 kilograms (176 pounds) a year. Demand for urban infrastructure also will soar. China, for example, could annually add floor space totaling 2.5 times the entire residential and commercial square footage of the city of Chicago, while India could add floor space equal to another Chicago every year. Such dramatic growth in demand for commodities actually isn't unusual. Similar factors were at play throughout the 20th century as the planet's population tripled and demand for various resource

Despite a slowdown in the global economy and a softening in demand for aluminium rolled products in some regions, JSE-listed aluminium reroller Hulamin expected global demand to increase this year. CEO Alan Fourie on Tuesday commented that the company, which exported about 70% of its products, had seen some softening in demand for aluminium rolled products in some regions, but added that demand for these products was expected to grow by between 5% and 7% this year. "Obviously the slowdown of the [global] economy puts pressure on margins, it is an economic consequence, but we are still selling into a growing international market," he said. Locally, however, the softening economic climate was expected to impact on sales volumes for the second half of the year. However, Hulamin expected these high-value products to continue growing as a percentage of its sales in the next few years. Fourie noted that five years ago, these products equated to just over 50% of its sales volumes, while their contribution was just below 60% in 2007. They now comprised about 64% of its total sales volumes. Meanwhile, Hulamin stated that its costs had increased by 16%, influenced by a 58% increase in energy costs, increasing alloying costs caused by magnesium prices rising from $2 000/t to $4 500/t, and increases in other metals. Excluding the cost of increasing energy and metals prices, the company's costs had increased by 6%. Fourie noted that while the rising aluminium costs did not affect its profitability, it did have an effect on its working capital. "We hold aluminium in our working capital. So when the aluminium price increases, the cash tied up in working capital increases and we have seen a significant increase in working capital during this period, because the rand price of aluminium has increased by close to 40% in the last six months," he explained. Further, Fourie did not expect the increasing electricity prices to have too great an impact on its futu

"In the near term, the Chinese economy is pausing for breath. China is not completely insulated from an OECD recession and we will see an impact on Chinese exports. However, the near term slowdown of growth is substantially due to tightening of monetary policy introduced by the Chinese government last year in order to tackle inflation. Furthermore, we expect third quarter economic data to show an exaggerated slowdown, reflecting the postponement of projects during the Olympics. Looking further out, Chinese GDP will remain largely driven by the domestic economy and we expect industrialisation and urbanisation to continue apace with strengthening demand across a range of Rio Tinto products.

The falling oil prices may have varied effects on the investment strategies adopted by the petro-states and also on the various markets being analyzed in this study. The level of petrodollar investments is bound to increase. However, if the trend of falling oil prices continue, the quantum of investments made is also likely to fall. On the whole, dramatic growth is expected in the level of domestic investments in 2009. However, international investments are likely to continue growing in a few key sectors of the economy. The following are the various international sectors that can be expected to attract maximum petrodollar investments in 2009 * Real estate * Healthcare * Industrial The following are the various domestic sectors that can be expected to attract maximum petrodollar investments in 2009 * Banking and financial services * Aerospace and defense * Industrial * Education

The world economy is set to shrink by between 0.5% and 1.0% in 2009, the first global contraction in 60 years.

The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy issued a report yesterday touting the role that semiconductor-based technologies have played in making the U.S. economy more efficient. At the same time, the International Energy Agency issued its own report calling on governments around the world to be more aggressive with efficiency standards for ICT and consumer electronics, which are expected to demand twice as much power by 2022 and three times as much by 2030 - creating a need for another 280 gigawatts of power generation (i.e. like adding another Japan to the world, or more than 230 nuclear reactors). "This will jeopardize efforts to increase energy security and reduce the emission of greenhouse gases," according to an IEA news brief.

"Warburg Pincus Senior Advisor Bill Janeway and Bloomberg Intelligence's Kenneth Hoffman discusses commodities, oil and the Chinese economy on "Bloomberg Surveillance.""

As the economy attempts to take off from the current position, the power sector holds the key to support rapid economic growth in the currently power starved country. This is likely to create significant investment opportunities in the power sector. Currently, there exists a major power crisis in the country. The scope to bridge the impending power demand-supply gap offers huge investment opportunities for both the multinational and domestic companies across the power industry value chain from generation to transmission and distribution and in distributed power generation including power rental sector

"Brazil is boosting its industrial production, power capacity and enhancing its transmission and distribution infrastructure to meet the needs of its expanding economy as well as for the 2014 FIFA football World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games." ABB will for the first time assemble in one location compact power substations ( "e-houses") as well as manufacture motors, generators, drive systems, measurement equipment and low-voltage products.

"Activity in China's factory sector seemingly contracted at the fastest pace in 15 months in July, a preliminary private survey showed on Friday in a blow undercutting recent signs of stabilization in the struggling economy."

The Irish Republic's economy has fallen into recession after shrinking for a second quarter in succession.

The International Copper Promotion Council (ICPC) is expecting Indian demand growth to be cut by almost half, to 8-9 percent this fiscal year, down from an average of 15% over the past two years. Strong industrial growth, residential construction and consumer spending have spurred on demand in Asia's third-largest economy, with copper consumption reaching 512,000t in 2007. However, rising inflation, and the subsequent hike in interest rates, looks set to cool demand growth this year. Industrial growth for June was reported at 5.4%, nearly half what it was in 2007. "The consumption of copper -based appliances in the white goods segment will slow down due to a reduced rate of growth in disposable incomes. This will also be a dampener on copper consumption," said a member of the ICPC in India. Ongoing government investment in power infrastructure and a growing emphasis on more energy-efficient appliances will protect demand, according to the ICPC, "partly cushioning the impact of a moderating economy."

China's economy will maintain strong growth thanks to resilient investment and exports and the government's strong fiscal position, an HSBC report said on Wednesday.