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Finish copper fabricator Luvata intends to improve its supply chain with the prospect of economic recovery. The company anticipates that the market will recover by the end of Q1 2010 and recognises that it needs to prepare so as to regain market share. Senior Vice President of procurement Bob Kickham said that once the market starts to recover, copper prices may increase again. Given the ongoing fears of substitution toward aluminium, a more streamlined and efficient supply chain will provide considerable support to copper.

The road to grid parity for PV power generation will be difficult, needing five or more years to compete with utility power, unsubsidized, on a large scale, noted Mark Thirsk, managing partner at Linx Consulting, at a recent SEMI PV forecast luncheon (Sept. 18) in Santa Clara, CA Most input materials for PV production are in relative oversupply and will not constrain production, Thirsk pointed out - and for this reason manufacturers are conservative about capacity investment. In particular, his PV module production forecast (see Fig. 1, above) shows an overstep in demand in 2008. One reason for suppliers' reluctance to build capacity for entering the silicon supply chain is that it is an inefficient process. "Only about 15% of all the silicon going into the supply chain goes into the wafers, so it's a pretty wasteful and capital intensive process, so there is a lot of reluctance to build capacity," said Thirsk. Despite the efficiency challenges, Thirsk's forecast indicates that an oversupply may occur in 2009 Because >40% of PV grade silicon is lost at the wafering step, Thirsk believes this represents a significant opportunity for the right technology. Additionally, diamond wire is a potential replacement for slurry technology, but this technology is still immature. In the crystalline silicon (c-Si) value chain, Thirsk sees opportunities for optimizing mono-crystalline wafers with metal wrap technology and backside contacts; process optimization and material improvements would improve cell efficiency, and glass, wafer, backsheet, and grid improvements can enable more efficient light capture. Looking ahead, Thirsk told the audience that while thin-film technologies will enjoy strong growth "and may be more attractive to value-add materials and equipment suppliers, thin-film cell production will remain a minority share for the medium term." (see Fig. 3, below) He closed his presentation encouraging the creation of a Moore's Law type of roadmap for the PV

As the economy attempts to take off from the current position, the power sector holds the key to support rapid economic growth in the currently power starved country. This is likely to create significant investment opportunities in the power sector. Currently, there exists a major power crisis in the country. The scope to bridge the impending power demand-supply gap offers huge investment opportunities for both the multinational and domestic companies across the power industry value chain from generation to transmission and distribution and in distributed power generation including power rental sector

we have focused so exclusively on leanness that it has made us blind to the importance of resilience.

"The retirement of experienced copper industry executives and the lack of trained technical replacements is helping to drive substitution and is likely to lead to more mergers and acquisitions as the industry adapts, senior industry executives said. A group of panelists at Metal Bulletin-American Metal Market's copper seminar in New York this week said that the copper sector needed to be far more proactive in attracting new talent and ensuring the gap in the professional supply chain is filled. "One thing that is driving substitution is the retirement of engineers that were very tied into the thought that copper wiring was the only alternative and that aluminium was unsafe," said Stu Thorn, CEO of Southwire. Thorn said the idea that aluminium was unsafe "almost became a psychological obsession" despite the development of new technologies to make it safe. "Now that generation of engineers is retiring, the new generation coming up doesn't necessarily have that same level of bias [towards copper], but what they do have is the drive to make more money, to reduce costs, and find cheaper alternatives," he told the seminar. "There is a shift..."

The solar industry and semiconductor industry are intimately connected. Both industries rely on silicon and both use much of the same processing technology and supply chain to produce their products. Nowhere has this connection been on better display than last week at the Moscone Center in San Francisco California, where the Intersolar North America made its debut in conjunction with SEMICON West 2008. The show provided an opportunity for those in the two industries to connect and allowed those companies that work in both spaces to showcase their collective efforts. According to Chris O'Brien, Head of Market Development and Government Relations for North America for Oerlikon Solar, holding the two conferences together gave companies greater exposure and showed the promise of the U.S. solar market. In recent months a number of traditional semiconductor companies including Intel and National Semiconductor have made announcements that they are making plans to enter the solar industry in one way or another. Intel spun off it's solar research area into a new solar company called SpectraWatt. National Semiconductor announced that it will be introducing it's first solar product, SolarMagic, that could raise the efficiency of residential and industrial solar systems. Kevin Kayser, Senior Marketing Manager at National said that he product will be targeted at installers and integrators and much planning went into the company's decision to enter the solar space. "Photovoltaics currently has less than 1% of the energy market, but we think it has potentially one of the fastest growth rates of any alternative energy source. Now certainly we're looking at wind, we're looking geothermal, we're looking at other sources, but from an electronics point of view we saw that we had the most immediate potential impact in solar photovoltaics," Kayser said.

RUEIL-MALMAISON, FRANCE, August 15, 2008. Schneider Electric has signed a CAD 498 million definitive arrangement agreement with Xantrex Technology Inc for the acquisition of all common shares of Xantrex. Xantrex is said to be a top three global player in the solar and wind inverter market with strong growth potential. It also has a leadership position in the North America. Awaiting approval from Xantrex shareholders, the deal is expected to be closed by October 2008. Schneider Electric says it expects to realise significant synergies in acquiring Xantrex, leveraging the strengths of both companies. Xantrex provides experience in advanced power electronic technology for renewable energy, and dedicated solar and wind channel access. Schneider Electric boasts a wide international footprint with solution centres and leverage with APC in purchasing, technology and operations. Xantrex Chairman Mosaadiq Umedaly comments: "We think it is the best way to develop our business, taking advantage of our leading technology, products, market knowledge, and distribution channels together with Schneider Electric's global sales, service, supply chain, and solutions capabilities."

Luvata, a copper semis fabricator, believes that even though destocking in the copper supply chain is over, a significant rise in demand is not anticipated until mid-2010. The company expects that Asia will be the first region to recover, followed by North America and Europe. As a result of destocking, Luvata has got used to operating at a lower level of stock, and therefore became more efficient in its production procedures. The company intends to keep operating at lower stock levels even in periods of growth. While demand before the summer showed some recovery signs, the company is now waiting for the autumn to see whether the positive trend will continue.

"Overcapacity, however, persists in most, though not all areas of the supply chain, providing purchasers with more choice, flexibility, and cost control. "

16 recent trend reports on climate and sustainability

Another one in a series of studies on this topic. This one predicts an 87,000% increase in the demand for battery materials which is not very helpful. Exponential extrapolation from a small basis over a long time horizon can basically come up with any growth figure. The logistic growth curve is a much better and proven model for technology transitions.

"Demand for cobalt, copper, lithium, cadmium, and rare earth elements needed for solar photovoltaics, batteries, electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, fuel cells, and nuclear reactors is set to explode in the coming years as countries around the world invest heavily in greening their economies".

Orginal source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6473/30 (though (also behind a paywall) and http://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/50598. The latter mentions the 87000% figure referred to in the above comment.