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Frank Gallagher

Iran: Factional dispute over unity and coalition schemes - 0 views

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    Nate-Nuri pushed for wide coalition, but Khamenei is not interested. Rezai pushing for pan-conservative coalition.
Frank Gallagher

Beyond Reformism - Activists take advantage of the election - 0 views

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    Iranian Liberal Democrats form a wide coalition to push for liberalisation. They believe that the upcoming election will prevent a wide-scale crackdown.
Frank Gallagher

EurasiaNet - Larijani Faction Emerges as Third Force in Iranian Power Struggle - 0 views

  • working hard to establish a public profile apart from hardliners led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and from progressives led by aggrieved presidential challenger Mir Hussein Mousavi.
  • The Larijani coalition is also gaining the backing of so-called traditionalists among the Islamic clergy. So far, the new faction has not enunciated a philosophical platform,
  • Ali Larijani is emerging as the public face of the faction, but behind him stand his very influential brothers and other relatives, according to a well-connected source. One of Larijani’s brothers is Sadegh, who is one of the 12 members of the powerful Guardian Council. Another is Mohammad Javad, a physicist and prominent political strategist. The Larijanis’ cousin, Ahmad Tavakoli, a prominent rightist politician and a member of parliament, is also believed to be an important player in the faction, as is Ali Motahari, another prominent rightist political operator who is Ali Larijani’s son-in-law.
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  • Most recently, Larijani was a prominent no-show for a June 24 dinner marking Ahmadinejad’s supposed re-election.
  • At various points during the political crisis, Larijani has staked out an independent position by pointedly criticizing hardliner-controlled institutions, including the Guardian Council, the Interior Ministry and the state media agency, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB). Despite Ayatollah Khamenei’s insistence that the presidential election results were genuine, Larijani publicly castigated the Guardian Council, the state body charged with certifying the vote, alleging that some of its members were part of a conspiracy to guarantee Ahmadinejad’s reelection.
  • Meanwhile, political analysts in Tehran suspect that Sadegh Larijani was responsible for the Guardian Council making public information -- specifically that irregularities in 50 cities tainted 3 million ballots in the election -- that proved highly embarrassing to the supreme leader. Ayatollah Khamenei has publicly characterized Ahmadinejad’s landslide as a "divine assessment."
Frank Gallagher

Yasin on the Election - 0 views

  • As of this writing, there are at least half a dozen campaign headquarters that are currently semi-active or not active at all but are all awaiting the go-ahead from their would-be conservative candidates. Amongst them are those of the current mayor of Tehran, one that belongs to a former foreign minister, one belonging to a current cabinet minister, one to a recently fired minister and one to the former head of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rezaii. 
  • who has been one of the most trenchant critics of Ahmadinejad government from the right flank. A few months ago, he put forth the idea of an inclusive coalition government, one that would encompass many of the moderates and a few of the radicals. The
  • , that Ahmadinejad's re-election is a foregone conclusion
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Is it really that bad?
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  • He led Iranian forces against Saddam's armies during the 8-year war and is currently the secretary of the influential Expedience Council. 
  • n a straight conservative-reformist contest between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi, Ahmadinejad is expected to win between 13 to 17 million votes against 9 to 12 million for Mousavi, assuming that the second reformist candidate leaves the race.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Where does this data come from?
  • many Rightist leaders - particularly in the Revolutionary Guards and its paramilitary affiliate, the Basij - have on numerous occasions warned that they would under no circumstances tolerate such a scenario, i.e., even if Mousavi technically wins the election in the first round, he would never be allowed to actually win the presidential seat. 
  • Of the 17 million votes cast, roughly 7 million came from the traditional bloc of conservative voters who unfailingly vote for Rightist candidates. The rest, which was quite a novel development for Iran, came from the economic grievances of the lower classes who were under the impression that Ahmadinejad was a champion of the poor or an anti-corruption crusader.  
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    Cant agree with his prognosis... there's no guarantee that anyone beyond the 7m 'bankers' will vote for Ahmadinejad.
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