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Frank Gallagher

Good sources on Iranian politics? - 10 views

Iran Politics Election Psephology IranJune12

started by Frank Gallagher on 28 Apr 09 no follow-up yet
Frank Gallagher

538 - Statistical Analysis of the Election - 0 views

www.fivethirtyeight.com/...ction-results-by-province.html

IranJune12th Rigged Election Electoral Process Psephology

shared by Frank Gallagher on 15 Jun 09 - No Cached
  • please compare the _absolute_ numbers in a graphfor example, AZARBAYJAN:2004-reform/centrist: 950,0002004-conservative: 350,0002009-reform/centrist: 837,0002009-conservative: 1,131,000so reform/centrist decreased by 10% and conservative trippled!? even as people get younger, economy worse, and achmadenijad more unpopular?
    • Frank Gallagher
      Frank Gallagher on 15 Jun 09
       
      In My Humble Opinion... This is a more important point than Mousavi being an Azeri. Azeris do not (by my understanding) vote on as dependably ethnic lines as people in Lorestan. They do however, dependably vote reformist. The numbers highlighted here show a huge and very unlikely swing not from one ethnicity to another, but from one political ideology to another. Fraud.
  • city-level returns posted by the Iranian Interior Ministry on their website? These were posted by "Pejman" and translated by "Shaahin" in the comments thread to your previous post: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/statistical-evidence-does-not-prove.html#comment-672782692382259870
  • Just from a cursory glance, you can see the official poll results don't make any sense. Look at one of the third party candidates, Karoubi. He is from Lorestan. in 2005, in the first round he took 55% of the vote in Lorestan. In these results, he takes only 5%.Extraordinarily unlikely.
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • I took a look at the spreadsheet another commenter linked to with the city reports and checked the frequency of all the last digits. In the Vietnam war, they faked body counts and this was statistically noticeable. Here are the counts:Last Count Normal Cummulative Distribution0 215 99.04%1 189 66.98%2 185 55.82%3 191 72.10%4 183 50.00%5 170 17.05%6 169 15.26%7 173 23.20%8 174 25.49%9 181 44.18%0 is the most popular last digit, and it is more than 2 standard deviations above the mean. It is less than 1% likely this would naturally happen.
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