Innovation Management

e-book sales are growing fast. Is it likely that in a not-so-far-away future paper-based books will be little used, if not in niches? It sounds impossible, given the centuries-old technology, but it might come. One key question arises: what will the business model of publishing become then?

Quite a controversial article, but interesting in that it highlights the deep challenge between the search-based paradigm on which Google sits, Apple's device-based one, and Facebook's network-based fundamentals. All in all, it shows a few interesting weaknesses in the company that seemed to be unstoppable.

An interesting article on the way with which pharmaceutical companies are now paying attention to the design of drug delivery devices. Economic value is probably easier to achieve in this neglected area than in looking for the next blockbuster drug?

An article on the broadcasting vs. streaming revolution. Interesting to notice that established cable TV operators are quite behind. Conversely, a young company like Netflix, that started by challenging Blockbuster in DVD rentals with an innovative business model, is a nimble player with interesting results. A clear example of organisational inertia

Intel's acquisition of McAfee is puzzling. Beyond the financial motivation are there technical and business ones? Are we going to see a higher degree of integration, with security algorithms built in microprocessors? What is the impact going to be on the product and the value chain?

An interesting paper on the future of mobility, merging transportation science with computing. Maybe mobility will not rely that much on cars (i.e. the product) as much as on the intelligent trasport infrastructure of the future (i.e. the service)

What comes after client-server computing? Is is the cloud (dominated by Google?) or is it the network (dominated by Facebook)? These two companies' battle is no longer with Microsoft (who wisely has taken a stake in the latter) but among themselves. Despite its innovativeness and clout, Google hasn't been able to replicate Facebook's success. Now it is using acquisitions to strenghten its position. 

Are 3D movies going to become the "dominant design" for the industry and supplant 2D? Or will the two technologies co-exist, with directors, producers and audiences preferring one or the other depending on the movie? A question still un-answered, where technical features intermingle with consumer preferences that are hard to fathom. Companies making investment decisions on this technology may find it difficult to make rational choices. 

It sounds obvious, but it is always appropriate to remember, that public policy can have a strong role in nudging the market towards technological solutions, especially during transitions times between paradigms. The case of electric vehicles is interesting, since you can find both issues related to regulation (e.g. emission-based standards, and traffic rules), taxation (e.g. fuel tax, tax incentives) and infrastructure (e.g. recharging stations )

This is another important standards war, though few people mention it. The early entrant, wimax, didn't have the time to gain critical mass, and the latecomer, LTE, seems to have stolen the march. The technologies are  roughly equivalent but - the writer says - LTE is becoming the winner, seemingly because it is endorsed by downstream players (device makers such as Nokia), while wimax is being pushed by upstream ones (component makers such as Intel). This causal relationship is not clear, but nonetheless interesting.

The race is on... Android's market share is overtaking iPhone's. If things go on this way it would be a deja vu of what happened with Windows and Macs, with "open" systems winning over "closed" (or semi-closed this time) ones. Even more, it would be a clear win of the cloud-based computing paradigm over the device-based one.

What is the perfect "personal device"? In the quest for a dominant design, now Motoral is looking for a TV tablet. Will it find acceptance in the market? This is probably a matter of market segmentation: "older" TV addicts having more money to spend will probably find it interesting. But younger people, raised on youtube and facebook might find it useless...

Technology sometimes leads to interesting hybrids. Tiltrotors are an interesting mixture between airplanes and helicopters... but frightfully expensive. Yet, while they certainly cannot be considered to be dominant designs, they seem to make sense in market niches

The transition from conventional to electric cars is probably undergoing the "sailing ship effect". Traditional technology is being improved quite substantially, and this is likely to defer the switch to the emerging technology

A must-read website showing the breadth of the challenges that are connected to the radical innovations attached to the "future of mobility". At the center is the "megacity" urban vehicle, that exhibits an interesting approach to modularity.

Part of Google's success is due to its secret algorithm, capable of delivering search results that are relevant to users, but also marketable to firms. The problem is that Google has the power to grow or kill any business by simply moving it up or down the hierarchy in search results. Some firms are starting to complain about fairness of this (especially the ones that partially compete with Google). However, it is up to antitrust authorities and end users to decide on the right tradeoff between convenience and neutrality of results.

Analysts are starting to recognize that - maybe - operating systems for smartphones will follow a different story than in the past. Instead of a winner-take-all market based on standardization, diversity is likely to prevail. This because handset makers and telcos will try to push in that direction  - as long as this will not reduce customer utility - and because the real source of value (and potential locus of standardization) now sits in the web and in social networks. In this case, which device and which OS is going to be used is going to be irrelevant.

Tesla Motors shares are now traded on the Stock Exchange. It is the first time since more than 50 years that a US carmaker launches an IPO. A sign that a paradigm shift is indeed under way in automotive? Probably yes.

Now that battery-powered vehicles seem to be the solution of choice for the next generation of cars, companies are looking for attractive markets. Will fleets be the right place to go? Maybe yes, if such fleets require short-range urban mission profiles. Maybe not, if all the attractiveness simply is adding a "green touch" to the company. 

Nintendo still is a leader in the games console industry. Now it is the turn for portable devices  with 3D screens that do not require the use of glasses. One big question is whether this innovation will be disruptive or not, since 3D screens and games are "modules" that are likely to be available to all competitors.