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We examined the world production of 57 minerals reported in the database of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Of these, we found 11 cases where production has clearly peaked and is now declining. Several more may be peaking or be close to peaking. Fitting the production curve with a logistic function we see that, in most cases, the ultimate amount extrapolated from the fitting corresponds well to the amount obtained summing the cumulative production so far and the reserves estimated by the USGS. These results are a clear indication that the Hubbert model is valid for the worldwide production of minerals and not just for regional cases. It strongly supports the concept that “Peak oil” is just one of several cases of worldwide peaking and decline of a depletable resource. Many more mineral resources may peak worldwide and start their decline in the near future.

The simultaneous onset of climate change and the peaking of global oil supply represent unprecedented challenges for human civilisation. Global oil peak has the potential to shake if not destroy the foundations of global industrial economy and culture. Climate change has the potential to rearrange the biosphere more radically than the last ice age. Each limits the effective options for responses to the other. The strategies for mitigating the adverse effects and/or adapting to the consequences of Climate Change have mostly been considered and discussed in isolation from those relevant to Peak Oil. While awareness of Peak Oil, or at least energy crisis, is increasing, understanding of how these two problems might interact to generate quite different futures, is still at an early state.

This is an update of my Peak Oil Overview at March '08. The major changes since my earlier post are the recent apparent decline in Russian production, the new ASPO peak oil projection, and discussion of the recent consumer producer summit in Saudi Arabia (slide 14). I also mention the expected change in IEA's November 2008 forecast of world production.

7th November 2007 the mainstream 10:30pm ITV news in the UK discusses the "peak oil" documentary Crude Awakening, hears the IEA warning of much higher oil prices, shows how many countries have already peaked

Nuclear fusion has evoked opinions in the various energy blogs ranging from “sixty years of failure and a certain dead end”, to “the reason why we do not need to worry about peak oil”. This event was a good opportunity to gain a clearer view of what part, if any, fusion energy could play in filling the gap as oil and then gas production peak and decline.

Even a 5 percent drop in peak demand can yield substantial savings in generation, transmission, and distribution costs – enough to eliminate the need for installing and running some 625 infrequently used peaking power plants and associated power delivery infrastructure.

We examine the potential economic implications of using vehicle batteries to store grid electricity generated at off-peak hours for off-vehicle use during peak hours. Hourly electricity prices in three U.S. cities were used to arrive at daily profit values, while the economic losses associated with battery degradation were calculated based on data collected from A123 Systems LiFePO4/Graphite cells tested under combined driving and off-vehicle electricity utilization. For a 16 kWh vehicle battery pack, the maximum annual profit with perfect market information and no battery degradation cost ranged from ~$140 to $250 in the three cities. If the measured battery degradation is applied, however, the maximum annual profit (if battery pack replacement costs fall to $5,000 for a 16 kWh battery) decreases to ~$10-$120. It appears unlikely that these profits alone will provide sufficient incentive to the vehicle owner to use the battery pack for electricity storage and later off-vehicle use. We also estimate grid net social welfare benefits from avoiding the construction and use of peaking generators that may accrue to the owner, finding that these are similar in magnitude to the energy arbitrage profit.

The New Scientist of 19 Jan 2008 carries an article, "Coal: Bleak outlook for the black stuff" (subscription required for full article), belatedly drawing attention to an interesting piece of analysis by Professor David Rutledge of CalTech in a lecture last October, where he suggests that world coal reserves are grossly overstated and could be substantially exhausted this century. It's well worth watching the whole hour of the lecture, because the PowerPoint alone [3MB] doesn't do his argument justice.

The capacity factor of a power plant is the ratio of the electrical energy produced in a given period of time to the electrical energy that could have been produced at continuous maximum power operation during the same period. For a conventional fossil-fuel power station, the capacity factor is determined by planned maintenance downtime, unplanned equipment failure, and by shutdowns when the station’s electricity is not needed. For wind and solar energy, power output is also determined by the availability of wind and sunlight. The maximum power output, or ‘installed capacity’, is a rather theoretical value that is rarely reached. It would be clearer to quote the mean power for solar and wind energy, but because peak power is more commonly quoted, it’s important to know the capacity factor as well, to make sense of the peak numbers.

Can glorified glow lamps stop blackouts and slash energy costs? Manhattan-based ConsumerPowerline thinks so. This winter, about a thousand participants in the company's energy-conservation program will receive small plug-in boxes that glow red when power demand peaks, urging them to turn off space heaters, defer dishwasher runs, or otherwise save electricity.

So why would a utility that makes money by selling power encourage someone to use less of it? The short answer is tight supply. Rather than paying higher spot prices to get more electricity onto the grid in times of peak usage, it is actually cheaper to set up these programs so that they can reduce consumer demand instead.