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in a biological sense butterflies are heavy hitters when it comes to protecting species threatened by climate change.As the world warmed, a butterfly called Edith's checkerspot was the first organism to show a documented range shift,

Edith's checkerspot has been dying out in northern Mexico and doing well in Canada

Parmesan said Tuesday during a break in the conference. It's also dying out at lower elevations and flourishing in the Sierra Nevada's highest elevations.

he NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook indicates that there is a high potential for coral bleaching in the Caribbean in 2010. The 2009-2010 El Niño ended in May 2010. However, the Caribbean typically experiences elevated temperature during the second year of an El Niño event. Since the beginning of 2010, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in most of the Caribbean region and tropical Atlantic Ocean have been observed more than 1ºC above the normal (see the SST anomaly figure below), based on Coral Reef Watch's climatology. This pattern is similar to, but has persisted much longer than, what occurred during the same time period in 2005.

The NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook indicates that there is a high potential for coral bleaching in the Caribbean in 2010. The 2009-2010 El Niño ended in May 2010. However, the Caribbean usually experiences elevated temperature during the year following an El Niño event. Since the beginning of 2010, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in most of the Caribbean region and tropical Atlantic Ocean have been observed more than 1ºC above the normal (see the SST anomaly figure above), based on Coral Reef Watch's climatology. This pattern is similar to, but has persisted much longer than, what occurred during the same time period in 2005. In 2005, a record breaking mass coral bleaching event in the Caribbean along with the most active hurricane season on record in the Atlantic Ocean followed such a pre-bleaching season SST anomaly pattern. The high SST anomaly in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Keys began in mid-May after a dramatic increase in SST in early May (near 2ºC increase over several days at some locations) after an extreme cold outbreak earlier this year in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida area. This preheating increases the likelihood that temperatures will exceed bleaching thresholds during the coming season. The pattern and intensity of early-season SST anomalies is similar to what was seen in 2005. The high potential for thermal stress above levels required to cause bleaching as seen in the CRW bleaching outlook system indicates a high potential for significant bleaching in the Caribbean region for the 2010 bleaching season. In 2005, the active hurricane season greatly reduced the coral bleaching thermal stress in the Florida Keys and Gulf of Mexico. However, the lack of tropical cyclones around the Lesser Antilles did not allow storms to relieve much the thermal stress in the epicenter of the 2005 mass bleaching event.

Low level bleaching thermal stress has already been present in the Caribbean region. The stress started to appear at the beginning of May at the eastern end of the Caribbean. It now covers most of the southern Caribbean region. In the Caribbean, bleaching-level thermal stress usually does not appear across such a wide area this early in the year. The year of 2005 was an exception and showed the similar thermal stress pattern. Given that the record breaking mass coral bleaching event occurred in 2005, the development of this year's thermal stress in the Caribbean needs to be monitored closely.

Turbulent weather blows into the Southwest

According to many scientists, our atmospheric system is in such a “hydrologic cycle” with water, vapor and energy responding to the increase in heat from the Earth just like a pot of water on the stove. And this boiling point has made for increasingly windy years around the Four Corners

“Climate models indicate that global warming could be responsible for our colder temperatures and blustery days,” said Chris Fox, former Environmental Sciences professor at the University of Maryland. Fox has been studying weather for more than 20 years and spent last summer in the Durango area. Fox predicted five years ago that the “next big factor we’d be dealing with would be the wind after observing changes and “connecting the dots.”

In a Congressional briefing on 30 June 2010, hurricane expert Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) said the potential for a disastrous 2010 hurricane season reflects not just natural variability but also climate change.  He explained that record high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic were one of the principal factors behind the dire forecast, and that rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may account for roughly half of the anomalous warmth.  He warned that "we’re looking at potentially a doubling of major hurricanes in the next 20 to 30 years" as a result of global warming.  Holland, Director of NCAR's Earth System Laboratory, made his remarks as a member of a panel on Hurricanes and Oil Will Mix: Managing Risk Now. 

A month before the panel's briefing, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued on 27 May its 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. NOAA said there was a 70% chance that the Atlantic hurricane season would see 14-23 named storms, 8-14 hurricanes, and 3-7 major hurricanes.

Among the factors underlying its outlook, NOAA cited warm Atlantic Ocean surface waters, which in May were for the fourth month in a row at record high temperatures for the month:  "Sea surface temperatures [SSTs] are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region."

A picturesque Baja town has been hammered repeatedly by the escalating tempo of flooding from tropical storms.

“Before we got here in 1982, there had been two floods on record,” Christopher, a retired Californian and Rotary Club member, told me. “The floods of 1914 and 1955. Then since 2006, we had three floods — almost one every year! I’m starting to get tired of rebuilding the roof and everything else.”

Why the frequency of floods now after so many quiet years? “I think it’s global warming,” said Christopher.

The wandering grey whale that bewildered scientists after appearing off the coast of Israel last month is now paying a visit to northeastern Spain.The sighting near Barcelona Harbour means the whale, believed to be one that would normally swim past Vancouver Island, travelled about 3,000 kilometres since it was last spotted 23 days earlier.

Although scientists have not been able to positively identify where the 12-metre whale came from, the most likely scenario is that it's part of the population that would normally swim past Vancouver Island, migrating from birthing lagoons in Mexico to the Bering Sea, and that it swam through the Northwest Passage in an increasingly ice-free Arctic.

There is speculation the whale was following food -- some observers say there are signs populations are dropping, possibly because warming waters mean less food. The tiny marine life they thrive on needs cooler temperatures to survive.