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there was a detailed study of “the relationships of the storm frequencies to seasonal temperature and precipitation conditions” for the years “1901–2000 using data from 1222 stations across the United States.”  The 2006 study, “Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States” (Changnon, Changnon, and Karl [of National Climatic Data Center], 2006) found we are seeing more northern snow storms and that we get more snow storms in warmer years: The temporal distribution of snowstorms exhibited wide fluctuations during 1901–2000, with downward 100-yr trends in the lower Midwest, South, and West Coast. Upward trends occurred in the upper Midwest, East, and Northeast, and the national trend for 1901–2000 was upward, corresponding to trends in strong cyclonic activity…..

Results for the November–December period showed that most of the United States had experienced 61%– 80% of the storms in warmer-than-normal years. Assessment of the January–February temperature conditions again showed that most of the United States had 71%–80% of their snowstorms in warmer-than-normal years. In the March–April season 61%–80% of all snowstorms in the central and southern United States had occurred in warmer-than-normal years…. Thus, these comparative results reveal that a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more snowstorms than in 1901–2000. Agee (1991) found that long-term warming trends in the United States were associated with increasing cyclonic activity in North America, further indicating that a warmer future climate will generate more winter storms.

the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) U.S. Climate Impacts Report from 2009, which reviewed the literature and concluded: Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent.

Thursday Flood Risk (and the most severe 30 days in Minnesota history?)

Paul's Star Tribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

we just lived through an incredible 30-day period. According to the local National Weather Service Office in Chanhassen we experienced 395 severe storms between June 17 and July 17. That compares to 120 severe storms in all of 2009! So in a mere 30 days we saw more than 3 TIMES more severe weather than we did all of last year.

Turbulent weather blows into the Southwest

According to many scientists, our atmospheric system is in such a “hydrologic cycle” with water, vapor and energy responding to the increase in heat from the Earth just like a pot of water on the stove. And this boiling point has made for increasingly windy years around the Four Corners

“Climate models indicate that global warming could be responsible for our colder temperatures and blustery days,” said Chris Fox, former Environmental Sciences professor at the University of Maryland. Fox has been studying weather for more than 20 years and spent last summer in the Durango area. Fox predicted five years ago that the “next big factor we’d be dealing with would be the wind after observing changes and “connecting the dots.”

In China, an estimated 200 million people are impacted by natural catastrophes every year. The rising number of severe weather-related natural catastrophes, also due to climate change, is increasing losses and impacting economic development.

“Due to its exposure to all weather-related perils, its large population and the fast growth in economic values, China is especially affected by climate change – and will be even more so in the future,” said Prof. Peter Höppe, Head of Geo Risks Research at Munich Re . “Over the last 30 years, Asia has been the continent with the largest increase in frequency of weather-related disasters. Loss-relevant events have tripled in number, which presents new challenges for all exposed economies.

Over the last century, with a rise of more than 1°C, Asia has been the continent with the largest temperature increase.

Swdwmsri Narzary, 19, a nimble weaver, rests her fingers on her loom and gets a faraway look when asked to recall her last few years of struggle dealing with the pressures of climate change. Orphaned at an early age, Swdwmsri lived with her elder brother and his family in Bijni, a rural village in Assam province's Chirang district. But increasingly unpredictable weather conditions - drought one year, incessant and untimely rains the next - made life gradually harder as the family's crops repeatedly failed. With the family on the verge of starvation, Swdwmsri had to drop out of school. Her brother decided not to waste money sowing new crops and instead used his remaining cash to migrate to a nearby city, Guwahati, in search of a job.

ASTRONOMICAL SPRING FOR 2010...DEFINED AS MARCH 20 TO JUNE 20 IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT BOTH WASHINGTON NATIONAL DC AND WASHINGTON DULLES. AT WASHINGTON DC...THE AVERAGE SPRING TEMPERATURE OF 66.7 DEGREES BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 66.3 DEGREES SET IN 1991. AT DULLES...THE AVERAGE SPRING TEMPERATURE OF 64.5 DEGREES BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 63.1 DEGREES SET IN 1991. OFFICIAL CLIMATE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871 FOR WASHINGTON DC AND 1962 FOR DULLES.

KENT NEWS

While some producers are celebrating bumper crops courtesy of the early summer heatwave, others are advising producers look to embrace more exotic crops for long-term prosperity. Cherries are among this year’s big hits while wine producers are also raising a glass to the ideal conditions for their grapes. Although, ironically, it has proven too hot for some summer classics. Meanwhile, fruits traditionally associated with warmer parts of Europe – such as apricots, nectarines, and corn on the cob – are already being grown successfully here. There are even some variations on Kentish classics which are now blossoming. Apple varieties such as braeburn apples, which never used to survive in the UK, are already pushing out more traditional types. And scientists say it is all down to the effects of climate change.

Cheryl Martin, of Martin’s Organic Fruit Farm in Marden, said it had been a good year for cherries. “This year has been better than last year because we had all these long, hot days,” she said. She said the only problem to hit crops was the recent heavy downpours, which can cause ‘splitting’ on the cherries. Her farm sells produce wholesale to places including Choice Organic in London and Seasons in Forest Row. Biddenden Vineyards owner Julian Barnes said: “This year has been absolutely fantastic for us so far.” He said the warm, dry weather during flowering season meant that there were lots of grapes on the vines. The sun also creates more alcohol and of a better quality.

Russia Heat Wave Statistics Staggers the Imagination

IT IS AS IF THE RUSSIAN HEARTLAND SHIFTED ONE THOUSAND MILES SOUTH That the month of July 2010 was hot in Moscow could rank among the foremost understatements in the world of "weather speak." For one thing, the highest temperature on record (in roughly 130 years of Moscow weather records) was reached on July 29, this being 38.2 C, or 100.8 F. This broke the previous high mark of 37.5 C set only three days earlier, on July 26. This was nearly tied on July 28. All of this is extraordinary, given that the normal high for this, the hottest time of year, is only 23 C. Moreover, July 2010 was the hottest July in the climate record of Moscow, as well as the hottest month overall. Thanks to Loepa, writing from Brasil (of all places!), I have it that the old record for warmest month in Moscow was 23.3 C, or 73.9 F, versus normal of about 17 C, or 63 C. What about this July? How about 26.1 C, or 79.0 F. So that is nearly a 3 C (and more than 5 F) gap. It is as if Moscow were shifted a thousand miles to the south. For perspective, the normal average temperature of July in Washington, D.C., is 26.2 C, or 79.2 F, according to the ADC database. Moscow has thus experienced roughly the weather (less the usual steamy humidity and thunderstorms) that is normally expected in the city of Washington, D.C., which lies 1,890 km/1,170 miles nearer to the equator! ST. PETERSBURG HAS ALSO ENDURED EXTREME TEMPERATURES I do not have full climate records for St. Petersburg, but I do know about July 2010. The AccuWeather.Com database shows a monthly mean temperature of 24.2 C, or 75.5 F. Normal mean July temperature is 15.2 C, or 59.4 F. Yes, that is even higher above normal than was Moscow. The city of Indianapolis has a normal mean July temperature of 24.2 C. Yet Indianapolis is 2,250 km/1,400 miles nearer to the equator than St. Petersburg. I do not say that this is a rigorous "apples-to-apples" comparison. Rather, it is to get a rough idea of how skewed the weather has been this summer in the Russian heartland. AND IT IS NOT OVER YET... As of this writing, the highest temperature thus far on Wednesday, Aug. 4, is 36.6 C, or 98 F, in Moscow. St. Petersburg has reached 33.3 C, or 92 F. Searing heat has invaded eastern Belarus, where readings to 37 C or 38 C have been reached. In the Ukraine, the worst of the heat has backed westward to Kiev, where August 4 has become the hottest day (37 C to 38 C, or near 100 F) of the summer thus far. And near 40 C yet again in Luhansk. The GFS numerical forecast model shows widespread extreme high temperature departure, for at least another week, throughout European Russia along with stretches of her western neighbors.

Early and Severe Wildfire Situation Develops in Alaska as Fuel Conditions Reach "Historical Maximum Levels" in Some Areas

High temperature records are tumbling, wildfires are multiplying and firefighting resources are stretched as Alaskan fire season kicks into high gear earlier than usual.  The conditions are part of an emerging trend: wildfires are serving as agents of change over Alaska's landscape as the state's climate rapidly changes.

surface temperatures also are rising over land.  Among the consequences are earlier and more severe wildfire seasons, especially when warmer temperatures are accompanied by lower precipitation levels. The current fire situation in Alaska provides a sobering example of how such changes are stoking wildfires in northern latitudes. 

Most people in Cambodia depend on farming for their livelihoods. 84 percent live in rural areas. Many live in high risk areas from flooding, droughts and cyclones. Kim Rattana of Caritas Cambodia said, "One of the biggest challenges we are facing in our development work is the increasing occurrence of natural disaster. What we have achieved over many years is being destroyed by storms and washed away by floods." Last year, Typhoon Ketsana destroyed hundreds of homes in Cambodia. Caritas Cambodia had to provide 30,000 people with relief items and food. Low water levels in the Mekong this year, the lifeline that runs through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, are threatening the livelihoods of more than 60 million people who live along it. In Cambodia, drought has already destroyed harvests and made fishing very difficult.

People in Cambodia don’t have the resources to adapt. That means they are extremely vulnerable to extreme or unpredictable weather. Climate variability has also brought health risks for some of Cambodia's most vulnerable communities. People are vulnerable to diseases like dengue fever, typhoid and diarrhea. Cambodia’s Ministry of Health predicts that under changing climate conditions will increase incidence of malaria by as much as 16 percent. Poor infrastructures and high poverty rates make malaria treatment unaffordable for large segments of the population. Only 55% of the population has access to public health facilities.

Spurred by a warming climate, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows over the last decade across the continental United States

"Climate change is making itself felt in terms of day-to-day weather in the United States," says Gerald Meehl, the lead author and a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The ways these records are being broken show how our climate is already shifting."

If temperatures were not warming, the number of record daily highs and lows being set each year would be approximately even. Instead, for the period from January 1, 2000, to September 30, 2009, the continental United States set 291,237 record highs and 142,420 record lows, as the country experienced unusually mild winter weather and intense summer heat waves. A record daily high means that temperatures were warmer on a given day than on that same date throughout a weather station's history.

In Guatemala, the people first realized they were experiencing climate change after Hurricane Mitch left 12,000 people dead in 1998, says Naty Atz Sunc, the general co-ordinator for the Association of Community Development and Promotion (CEIBA). Since then Tropical Storm Stan in 2005 and Agatha in May have left thousands of people in temporary shelters. Although, there were storms before, what Guatemala is experiencing is much more extreme now, Sunc explained with Rachel Warden from Kairos translating. There has been devastating loss of crops, including grains and entire families have been displaced because of landslides. “For the first time, we’ve experienced hail in Guatemala,” she said.

The wind in northern Arizona is older than Meteor Crater, but the blinding dust storms that have crippled nearby Interstate 40 are new.

Until last year, Highway Patrol officials had never closed I-40, but they have shut down the east-west artery 10 times this spring, including twice on May 22-23.

The full picture of what's causing the dust storms remains a mystery. There have been more frequent days of winds upward of 45 mph, but state and weather officials say that doesn't explain why it is kicking up so much grit.

Qatar's longest day in the year was also the hottest with experts agreeing that the unusually high temperatures experienced in Qatar and the Gulf region over the last five days indicate a significant shift in weather patterns. The temperatures recorded this year are 5-7 degrees Celsius higher than in the corresponding period last year, Qatari daily The Peninsula said. Maximum temperatures on June 18, 19 and 20, last year, were 44, 43 and 42 degrees Celsius respectively. However, this year, all the three days recorded a high of 49C. There was also a major shift in the minimum temperature recorded during the same period.

The weather should not have been so hot this month. But we have been receiving warm and humid south-westerly winds for the last four days [thus forcing temperatures up]. Normally, we receive this wind during the peak of summer," the official was quoted as saying.

Record high temepratures in Bahrain have forced several construction companies take the humanitarian decision of resting their labourers in the afternoon.

“Over the last 30 years, Asia has been the continent with the largest increase in frequency of weather-related disasters. Loss-relevant events have tripled in number which presents new challenges for all exposed economies.”

Alluding to the impact of climate change and its impact, Munich Re said that over the last century, the Asian continent has seen the largest temperature increase.

New Weather Patterns Threaten U.S. Breadbasket

The Midwest climate has already become wetter and warmer, said Gene Takle, an atmospheric scientist at Iowa State University.

One of Takle's studies used Iowa's experience to show the stress already showing up in the Midwest states, which are major food exporters to other countries as well. For example, precipitation has risen gradually in Iowa over the past century, but can vary widely from year to year. Springs now are wetter, and autumns drier. That can make corn-planting difficult, but dry the grain more quickly in the fall. Records show a rise in absolute humidity, threatening crops with a higher risk of disease and harmful fungi.

Speaking at the Asean Energy Business Forum Ministers-CEO Dialogue in Vietnam last Friday, Energy Secretary Jose Rene Almendras said the need to “climate-proof” the region’s energy sector was now more pressing, given the visible impact of climate change on various aspects of energy production.

He explained that the energy sector was very vulnerable to the effects of climate change, using as an example the Philippines’ experience during the extended El Niño weather phenomenon. Mindanao experienced daily rotating power interruptions, sometimes lasting 10-12 straight hours, due to severe lack of water to power the main grid’s hydropower facilities, from which the bulk of the region’s power supply came.

Apart from hydropower generation, Almendras related that wind power generation was also highly affected by climate change. “Wind power generation is susceptible to variations in ambient temperatures, humidity, and precipitation. The primary determinants of wind power availability are wind speed statistics, consisting of mean wind speeds and gustiness. Wind speeds are subject to natural variability on a wide range of time scales, and they may be affected by climate change,” he explained. To help respond to the effects of climate change, he said the country had adopted a holistic approach of combining mitigation with adaptation.

The 2009 State of the Climate report released today draws on data for 10 key climate indicators that all point to the same finding: the scientific evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable. More than 300 scientists from 160 research groups in 48 countries contributed to the report, which confirms that the past decade was the warmest on record and that the Earth has been growing warmer over the last 50 years. Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, the report defines 10 measurable planet-wide features used to gauge global temperature changes. The relative movement of each of these indicators proves consistent with a warming world. Seven indicators are rising: air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, air temperature over oceans, sea level, ocean heat, humidity and tropospheric temperature in the “active-weather” layer of the atmosphere closest to the Earth’s surface. Three indicators are declining: Arctic sea ice, glaciers and spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere.

“For the first time, and in a single compelling comparison, the analysis brings together multiple observational records from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the ocean,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The records come from many institutions worldwide. They use data collected from diverse sources, including satellites, weather balloons, weather stations, ships, buoys and field surveys. These independently produced lines of evidence all point to the same conclusion: our planet is warming,”

Provence & Cote d'Azur: 25 reported dead and fears more bodies will be found as massive clean-up operation begins in the Var After the flood Apocalyptic visions are continuing to emerge from the Var in the wake of the torrential rainfall that has been plaguing the region since Tuesday. The scenes are almost impossible to comprehend: battered cars floating down rivers that were just a few days ago normal village streets, residents surrounded by water and stranded on roofs and terraces waiting to be airlifted to safety, buildings destroyed. Most devastating of all: the death toll is rising. The number of dead now lies at 25, the majority of fatalities occurring to people travelling in vehicles. As the water starts to go down, there are fears that more bodies will be found. The situation was not helped this morning as further rain storms hit the worst affected areas, which includes Les Arcs, Draguignan, Roquebrune and Trans. The latest weather disaster to hit the region, the worst flood recorded since 1827, has already left a tragic trail of destruction and death in its wake. Among the victims; a Dutch woman in Fréjus who was swept away in a caravan being towed by her husband; a 19-year-old mechanic who was crushed inside his car in Draguignan; and an 18-month-old baby who was taken by the water from his mother's arms in Roquebrune. Damage to property has been extensive. With homes flooded and commercial buildings torn apart, normal life has come to a standstill in many places and the area resembles more a conflict zone than a popular holiday destination in the South of France. 25,000 homes were still without electricity today and schools, shops and offices remain shut. People are being strongly advised to avoid travelling in the region. The A8 may be open but many of the surrounding smaller roads have been closed and the trains continue to be severely disrupted. Yesterday, government leaders rushed to the disaster site. Brice Hortefeux, Minister of the Interior, in the Var yesterday afternoon, said that this was “an unprecedented disaster in the region.” Joining Hortefeux was Hubert Falco, France’s Secretary of State and the mayor of Toulon, the Var capital. President Sarkozy is expected to arrive in the area early next week. One million euros has been made immediately available, from national funds, for the recovery operation and more will be provided. This same sum was given to Nice and Cannes in the aftermath of the coup de mer in April and the situation this time around is seemingly far worse. It is almost incomprehensible that two “natural disasters” of this scale could occur in the region one so soon after the other. It highlighted for the second time in almost as many months how important it is to be well prepared for extreme weather conditions. As water filled and flooded streets quickly on Tuesday night, it is clear that many urban and residential areas are not designed to cope with heavy rainfall. Furthermore, it has been suggested that this kind of catastrophe can be exacerbated because a culture of risk simply does not exist in France. French senator, Bruno Retailleau, speaking at a press conference this morning, said that France must take better precautions against the risk of floods, which are the nation’s most common 'natural disaster'. He went on to say that the country has the tools to work with and the regulations in place to take preemptive measures against freak weather behaviour but that these are not used adequately. HM