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Luís F. Simões

Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - 6 views

www.shell.com/...shell_energy_scenarios_2050

energy future forecast politics economy climate_change

shared by Luís F. Simões on 09 Mar 11 - No Cached
  • Luís F. Simões on 09 Mar 11
     
    just in case you were feeling happy and optimistic
  • ...7 more comments...
  • Francesco Biscani on 09 Mar 11
     
    An energy scenario published by an oil company? Allow me to be sceptical...
  • Joris _ on 10 Mar 11
     
    Indeed, Shell is an energy company, not just oil, for some time now ... The two scenarii are, in their approach, dependant of economic and political situation, which is right now impossible to forecast. Reference to Kyoto is surprising, almost out-dated! But overall, I find it rather optimistic at some stages, and probably the timeline (p37-39) is unlikely with recent events.
  • Luís F. Simões on 10 Mar 11
     
    the report was published in 2008, which explains the reference to Kyoto, as the follow-up to it was much more uncertain at that point. The Blueprint scenario is indeed optimistic, but also quite unlikely I'd say. I don't see humanity suddenly becoming so wise and coordinated. Sadly, I see something closer to the Scramble scenario as much more likely to occur.
  • LeopoldS on 12 Mar 11
     
    not an oil company??? please have a look at the percentage of their revenues coming from oil and gas and then compare this with all their other energy activities together and you will see very quickly that it is only window dressing ... they are an oil and gas company ... and nothing more
  • Joris _ on 14 Mar 11
     
    not JUST oil. From a description: "Shell is a global group of energy and petrochemical companies." Of course revenues coming from oil are the biggest, the investment turnover on other energy sources is small for now. Knowing that most of their revenues is from an expendable source, to guarantee their future, they invest elsewhere. They have invested >1b$ in renewable energy, including biofuels. They had the largest wind power business among so-called "oil" companies. Oil only defines what they do "best". As a comparison, some time ago, Apple were selling only computers and now they sell phones. But I would not say Apple is just a phone company.
  • LeopoldS on 14 Mar 11
     
    window dressing only ... e.g. Net cash from operating activities (pre-tax) in 2008: 70 Billion$ net income in 2008: 26 Billion revenues in 2008: 88 Billion Their investments and revenues in renewables don't even show up in their annual financial reports since probably they are under the heading of "marketing" which is already 1.7 Billion $ ... this is what they report on their investments: Capital investment, portfolio actions and business development Capital investment in 2009 was $24 billion. This represents a 26% decrease from 2008, which included over $8 billion in acquisitions, primarily relating to Duvernay Oil Corp. Capital investment included exploration expenditure of $4.5 billion (2008: $11.0 billion). In Abu Dhabi, Shell signed an agreement with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to extend the GASCO joint venture for a further 20 years. In Australia, Shell and its partners took the final investment decision (FID) for the Gorgon LNG project (Shell share 25%). Gorgon will supply global gas markets to at least 2050, with a capacity of 15 million tonnes (100% basis) of LNG per year and a major carbon capture and storage scheme. Shell has announced a front-end engineering and design study for a floating LNG (FLNG) project, with the potential to deploy these facilities at the Prelude offshore gas discovery in Australia (Shell share 100%). In Australia, Shell confirmed that it has accepted Woodside Petroleum Ltd.'s entitlement offer of new shares at a total cost of $0.8 billion, maintaining its 34.27% share in the company; $0.4 billion was paid in 2009 with the remainder paid in 2010. In Bolivia and Brazil, Shell sold its share in a gas pipeline and in a thermoelectric power plant and its related assets for a total of around $100 million. In Canada, the Government of Alberta and the national government jointly announced their intent to contribute $0.8 billion of funding towards the Quest carbon capture and sequestration project. Quest, which is at the f
  • Joris _ on 14 Mar 11
     
    thanks for the info :) They still have their 50% share in the wind farm in Noordzee (you can see it from ESTEC on a clear day). Look for Shell International Renewables, other subsidiaries and joint-ventures. I guess, the report is about the oil branch. http://sustainabilityreport.shell.com/2009/servicepages/downloads/files/all_shell_sr09.pdf http://www.noordzeewind.nl/
  • LeopoldS on 16 Mar 11
     
    no - its about Shell globally - all Shell .. these participations are just peanuts please read the intro of the CEO in the pdf you linked to: he does not even mention renewables! their entire sustainability strategy is about oil and gas - just making it (look) nicer and environmentally friendlier
  • Joris _ on 16 Mar 11
     
    Fair enough, for me even peanuts are worthy and I am not able to judge. Not all big-profit companies, like Shell, are evil :( Look in the pdf what is in the upstream and downstream you mentionned above. Non-shell sources for examples and more objectivity: http://www.nuon.com/company/Innovative-projects/noordzeewind.jsp http://www.e-energymarket.com/news/single-news/article/ferrari-tops-bahrain-gp-using-shell-biofuel.html thanks.
Tobias Seidl

Global Futures Studies & Research by the MILLENNIUM PROJECT - 0 views

www.millennium-project.org

LTP futures future studies foresight crowdsourcing

shared by Tobias Seidl on 13 Jul 09 - Cached
  • Tobias Seidl on 13 Jul 09
     
    The Millennium Project is a global participatory futures research think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and policy makers who work for international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities. The Millennium Project manages a coherent and cumulative process that collects and assesses judgements from its several hundred participants to produce the annual "State of the Future", "Futures Research Methodology" series, and special studies such as the State of the Future Index, Future Scenarios for Africa, Lessons of History, Environmental Security, Applications of Futures Research to Policy, and a 700+ annotated scenarios bibliography.
  • LeopoldS on 14 Jul 09
     
    very nice page - we should use some of its resources!!
Joris _

Japan probe overshoots Venus, heads toward sun - 0 views

www.washingtonpost.com/...AR2010120701077.html

MAD venus robust

shared by Joris _ on 08 Dec 10 - No Cached
sreejanag liked it
  • A Japanese probe to Venus failed to reach orbit Wednesday and was captured by the sun's gravitational pull
  • Akatsuki's engines did not fire long enough to attain the proper orbiting position
  • may be able to try again when it passes by Venus six years from now.
  • Joris _ on 08 Dec 10
     
    The usefulness of having a robust trajectory :) ... They have to wait 6 more years for another date with Venus ...
  • ...2 more comments...
  • Joris _ on 09 Dec 10
  • LeopoldS on 11 Dec 10
     
    I agree in general but just out of the stomach: is there really an optimised trajectory that would be able to avoid this kind of scenarios when main thrusters don't perform properly? Wouldn't you in any case end up in a sun-orbiting trajectory and have to come back after years??
  • Joris _ on 11 Dec 10
     
    "optimised trajectory" of course not, robust definitely! It was the subject of my paper presented at the AAS (the one in San Diego) "Designing robust interplanetary trajectories subject to one temporary engine failure". The problem here is that they do not have enough fuel for a correction maneuver that would allow to come back to Venus earlier, and break for a VOI. A robust scenario could have alloted the best amount of fuel and time to be able to recover from almost all possible unplanned events. In the paper, I introduce some confidence regions such that I get the robust control for p% chance of mission success in case m% chance of problem with the propulsion system.
  • Dario Izzo on 12 Dec 10
     
    You should run your method on this scenario and see if you could get a trajectory with a shorter come back time using the same spacecraft.... would be a big selling point for a new trajectory design approach
Christos Ampatzis

NASA news conference Dec. 2, on extraterrestrial life?! - 3 views

www.nasa.gov/...M10-110.html

space BIO fun

shared by Christos Ampatzis on 01 Dec 10 - No Cached
  • Christos Ampatzis on 01 Dec 10
     
    Let's start betting which party Aliens vote: GREEN, BLUE, RED, BLACK?
  • ...3 more comments...
  • Luís F. Simões on 01 Dec 10
     
    yes, the internet is going crazy over this one :) (http://cumbriansky.wordpress.com/2010/11/30/nasas-astrobiology-press-conference/) This is the most likely scenario I've seen so far for what will be announced tomorrow: http://skymania.com/wp/2010/11/alien-life-form-is-here-on-earth.html/ "...discovery of microbes in a deadly poisonous lake that get their energy from arsenic. Experts say this shows they had a completely different origin to any other creature known on our planet. It means that life began not just once but at least twice on Earth."
  • Joris _ on 02 Dec 10
     
    well, we've all seen the movie Evolution (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0251075/) ;p ... this is exactly this scenario indeed.
  • Ma Ru on 02 Dec 10
     
    yaaawnnn... Let's wait until they actually announce it.
  • nikolas smyrlakis on 02 Dec 10
     
    http://astrobiology.nasa.gov/ for the moment is down. My bet, the microbe they found notified its cousins and they are currently invading the US
  • Luís F. Simões on 02 Dec 10
     
    you can still see the rest of it here: http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html a good link with a summary and discussion on the announcement is here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/dec/02/nasa-life-form-bacteria-arsenic
santecarloni

Artificial Braneworlds Made to Collide In Lab - Technology Review - 4 views

www.technologyreview.com/...27537

metamaterials cosmology PHY

shared by santecarloni on 31 Jan 12 - No Cached
pacome delva liked it
  • santecarloni on 31 Jan 12
     
    Physicists have simulated two universes colliding inside a metamaterial--  Now, this is cool (if it is true...)
  • ...1 more comment...
  • LeopoldS on 01 Feb 12
     
    we... the article is a bit overblown in my view ... except maybe the last paragraphs: "The collision between universe's is a variation on this theme. "The "colliding universe" scenario can be realized as a simple extension of our earlier experiments simulating the spacetime geometry in the vicinity of big bang," he says. He simulates an expanding universe using concetric rings of gold separated by a dielectric. "When the two concentric ring ("universe") patterns touch each other ("collide"), a Minkowski domain wall is created, in which the metallic stripes touch each other at a small angle," he says. Being able to recreate these exotic events in the lab is certainly interesting but it is beginning to lose its novelty. The problem is that this work is not telling us anything we didn't know--the universe behaves the same way inside a metamaterial as it does outside. What Smolyaninov needs is a way of using his exotic materials to do something interesting. In other words, he needs a killer app. Any ideas? "
  • Luzi Bergamin on 05 Feb 12
     
    Hm, they use more or less everything I don't especially like. They are nonmagnetic, so the relation materialGR is already rather weak. Usually, experimentalists prefer nonmagnetic media, since they are cheaper and broadband. At least the broadband is no argument here, since the frequency defines the "mass", which I find a rather strange point of view. And finally, they use strong anisotropy as a model of "time", which is rather problematic. Of course, the spatial direction with eps<0 appears in the wave equation with the same sign as time. But this does not mean that it behaves like time. But to teach material physicists that time is more than just a different sign in the wave equation seems to be as hopeless as to teach them that a black hole is more than something that absorbs all light... SIGHHH
  • LeopoldS on 10 Feb 12
     
    Luzi I miss you ...
Thijs Versloot

The risk of geoengineering (or when abruptly stopping..) - 2 views

www.sciencedaily.com/...140217200823.htm

geoengineering

shared by Thijs Versloot on 19 Feb 14 - No Cached
  • Thijs Versloot on 19 Feb 14
     
    The researchers used a global climate model to show that if an extreme emissions pathway -- RCP8.5 -- is followed up until 2035, allowing temperatures to rise 1°C above the 1970-1999 mean, and then SRM (Solar Radiation Management) is implemented for 25 years and suddenly stopped, global temperatures could increase by 4°C in the following decades.
  • Athanasia Nikolaou on 19 Feb 14
     
    Nice quantitative study. They treat the problem within the full uncertainty range of climate sensitivity parameter (much uncertain), very complete. However, at SRM ceasing, after an initial positive spike of Radiative Forcing, the rate of warming seems to return to rates predicted for the non-geoengineering case: "The 20-year temperature trends following SRM cessation are 0.2−0.6 °C/decade for the range of climate sensitivities (figure 5), comparable to those trends that occur under the RCP8.5 scenario without any SRM." I am actually working on a similar idea for deliberate Mars terraforming: aiming to cool the planet down before we introduce a positive Temperature raising feedback with greenhouse gases, maybe could be more efficient than warming itself.
johannessimon81

Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'? - 4 views

www.theguardian.com/...ible-collapse-study-scientists

society technology science

shared by johannessimon81 on 15 Mar 14 - No Cached
  • johannessimon81 on 15 Mar 14
     
    Sounds relevant. Does ESA need to have a position on this question?
  • Luís F. Simões on 15 Mar 14
     
    This was on Slashdot now, with a link to the paper. It quite an iteresting study actually. "The scenarios most closely reflecting the reality of our world today are found in the third group of experiments (see section 5.3), where we introduced economic stratification. Under such conditions, we find that collapse is difficult to avoid."
  • Thijs Versloot on 16 Mar 14
     
    Interesting, but is it new? In general, I would say that history has shown us that it is inevitable that civilisations get replaced by new concepts (much is published about this, read eg Fog of War by Jona Lendering on the struggles between civilisations in ancient history, which have remarkably similar issues as today, yet on a different scale of course). "While some members of society might raise the alarm that the system is moving towards an impending collapse and therefore advocate structural changes to society in order to avoid it, Elites and their supporters, who opposed making these changes, could point to the long sustainable trajectory 'so far' in support of doing nothing." I guess this bang on it, the ones that can change the system, are not benefitted by doing so, hence enrichment, depletion, short term gain remain and might even accelerate to compensate for the loss in the rest of the system.
Dario Izzo

NASA Brings Earth Science 'Big Data' to the Cloud with Amazon Web Services | NASA - 3 views

www.nasa.gov/...cloud-with-amazon-web-services

big data

shared by Dario Izzo on 12 Nov 13 - No Cached
  • Dario Izzo on 12 Nov 13
     
    NASA answer to the big data hype
  • Athanasia Nikolaou on 13 Nov 13
     
    "The service encompasses selected NASA satellite and global change data sets -- including temperature, precipitation, and forest cover -- and data processing tools from the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX)" Very good marketing move for just three types of selected data (MODIS, Landsat products) plus four model runs (past/projection) for the the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios of the IPCC. It looks as if they are making data available to adress a targeted question (crowdsourcing of science, as Paul mentioned last time, this time climate evolution), not at all the "free scrolling of the user around the database" to pick up what he thinks useful, mode. There is already more rich libraries out there when it comes to climate (http://icdc.zmaw.de/) Maybe simpler approach is the way to go: make available the big data sets categorized by study topic (climate evolution, solar system science, galaxies etc.) and not by instrument or mission, which is more technical, so that the amateur user can identify his point of interest easily.
  • Thijs Versloot on 13 Nov 13
     
    They are taking a good leap forward with it, but it definitely requires a lot of post processing of the data. Actually it seems they downsample everything to workable chunks. But I guess the power is really in the availability of the data in combination with Amazon's cloud computing platform. Who knows what will come out of it if hundreds of people start interacting with it.
Nina Nadine Ridder

Study suggests the Red Planet was icy rather than watery billions of years ago - 1 views

phys.org/...lanet-icy-watery-billions.html

Mars climate_science paleoclimate science ESS numerical_climate_modelling 3D_model

shared by Nina Nadine Ridder on 20 Jul 15 - No Cached
  • Nina Nadine Ridder on 20 Jul 15
     
    The high seas of Mars may never have existed. According to a new study that looks at two opposite climate scenarios of early Mars, a cold and icy planet billions of years ago better explains the water drainage and erosion features seen today.
  • Thijs Versloot on 21 Jul 15
     
    That's a lot of assumptions along the way, what do you think of it Nina?
Juxi Leitner

'Doomsday Ark' to be Housed on the Moon -A Remote Access Toolkit to Rebuild the Human Race - 5 views

www.dailygalaxy.com/...to-rebuild-the-human-race.html

space science moon base technology bio vault

shared by Juxi Leitner on 04 Jul 10 - Cached
  • our future may reside on the Moon if plans.being drawn up for a “Doomsday ark” on the moon by the European Space Agency are carried through.
  • whether living organisms could survive, European Space Agency scientists are hoping to experiment with growing tulips on the moon within the next decade.
  • would initially be run by robots
  • Juxi Leitner on 04 Jul 10
     
    did not know ESA was doing that!
  • andreiaries on 05 Jul 10
     
    too late, the world will in end in 2012 ......... I fail to see in which scenario this would be better than a couple of vaults on Earth (since there would be no humans on the moon). But if tulips on the moon can convince politicians, I'm all for it.
  • LeopoldS on 05 Jul 10
     
    "The first flowers - tulips or arabidopsis, a plant widely used in research - could be grown in 2012 or 2015 according to Bernard Foing, chief scientist at the agency's research department." - Bernhard strikes again :-)
Joris _

Obama's dream of Mars at risk from radiation - physicsworld.com - 0 views

physicsworld.com/...44254

mars technology

shared by Joris _ on 05 Nov 10 - No Cached
  • Schwabe cycle
  • Schwabe cycle, where sunspot numbers reach a peak roughly once every 11 years
  • the intensity of each solar maximum is also thought to oscillate over a period, called the Gleissberg cycle
  • ...3 more annotations...
  • The worse-case scenario is that if you radiate a crew sufficiently, they'd all succumb to radiation sickness within a few days and essentially vomit and diarrhoea themselves to death within an enclosed capsule
  • The Moon missions were just blind lucky,” explains Lewis Dartnell, an astrobiologist at University College, London. “The astronauts would have experienced radiation sickness and a higher risk of future cancer if they'd been hit,” he adds.
  • Hapgood and colleagues are currently working on an alternative technique that involves surrounding the spacecraft with a plasma shield to deflect incoming protons without creating secondary radiation
LeopoldS

Human Brain Project - Goals - 3 views

www.humanbrainproject.eu/goals.html

AI bio technology science

shared by LeopoldS on 20 May 11 - No Cached
  • LeopoldS on 20 May 11
     
    can we contribute in any way to this - or alternatively benefit from this research already now?
  • ...4 more comments...
  • Luzi Bergamin on 20 May 11
     
    Watch out!! I read quite a lot about the contribution by EPFL (apparently coordinator) and their boss, Henry Markram. From what I read, this is not really science, but mainly a PR campaign. The main motor in this project is attracting a lot of money and the main aim to do so is promising a lot of stuff that nobody will be able to deliver. Accordingly, Markram is a very controversial person in the business...
  • Luzi Bergamin on 20 May 11
     
    Oups, sorry! Of course I meant, "the main MEAN to do so...", but the aim justifies the means. Well, that's exactly Markram's motto, I guess.
  • LeopoldS on 21 May 11
     
    interesting info indeed ... I though still think that the overall goal of this project, even if too ambitious for the time being is interesting, no?
  • Luzi Bergamin on 22 May 11
     
    It's not about interesting or not, it's about serious science or not. Also the goal of a fortune-teller is interesting, isn't it? Any description of a good science project is too ambitious, that's normal and not necessarily PR. But personally I think there is a certain limit where a science project becomes a bad SciFi thriller. This one here is a dime novel, I think. But the too ambitious is not the only point I became very doubtful. I have seen quite a number of scientists and engineers from different fields; what I read about the character and attitude of this guy just hints towards the worst case scenario. It's presumptive evidence, I know...
  • LeopoldS on 22 May 11
     
    that bad! wow ....
  • Luzi Bergamin on 22 May 11
     
    You know me, I'm the bullshitter... You remember Kurzweil and his Singularity-nonsense. In a way this was very similar. Though I think Kurzweil and Markram are very different characters (The Singularity essentially is a religion, I can't see anything like that in Markram's claims) they seem to share an important point: they are both complete nerds that apparently never spent a single thought on the limits of science (in its English meaning) in general nor of their particular research field in specific. One may find this excusable, I don't. But even then, they make claims that the nerdest nerd must know that they are completely unrealistic and thus I just have to assume that they claim their nonsense on purpose. The reason in Markram's case clearly seems to be money. But all this does not mean that these nerds cannot produce valuable results.
Joris _

U.S. Should Prepare for Mars With Asteroid Flight, Panel Says - Bloomberg.com - 0 views

www.bloomberg.com/...news

MAD asteroids Mars

shared by Joris _ on 18 Aug 09 - Cached
  • The “most cost effective” scenario is a plan to visit asteroids and potential sites for future spacecraft fuel depots and fly over Mars
ESA ACT

mind of a fox >> Introduction - 0 views

www.mindofafox.com/introduction.php

scenario future futurist

shared by ESA ACT on 24 Apr 09 - Cached
  • ESA ACT on 24 Apr 09
     
    A known South African 'futurist'
Kevin de Groote

We will be here - Map of the Future - 4 views

www.flickr.com/...3975416561

future timeline

shared by Kevin de Groote on 07 Nov 09 - Cached
Ma Ru liked it
  • Kevin de Groote on 07 Nov 09
     
    "The Italian magazine WIRED asked us to draw a map based on the scenarios developed by the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto to help the reader in the net of ideas and hypothesis built by 7000 influencers from all over the world." Think Leo will like...
Paul N

Computers Learn How to Paint Whatever You Tell Them To - 3 views

www.bloomberg.com/...aint-whatever-you-tell-them-to

AI technology fun

shared by Paul N on 08 Dec 15 - No Cached
  • Paul N on 08 Dec 15
     
    Most self-respecting artists wouldn't agree to paint a portrait of a toilet in the middle of a field. Fortunately, advancements in artificial intelligence have given computers the ability to imagine just about any scenario, no matter how bizarre, and illustrate it. Take a look at this image.
  • Thijs Versloot on 10 Dec 15
     
    Those are some creepy faces among them.. This is also just completely random isn't it?
  • Paul N on 10 Dec 15
     
    Well, biased to the data it was trained on. Computing a net is pretty deterministic. But not everything is perfectly correlated yet. Still nice progress.
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