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Every year at this time we turn to the experts in our field to share their predictions on what lies ahead for the e-learning community. While our colleagues here unanimously agree the global economic downturn is the overwhelming factor coloring their forecasts, they do see a great array of opportunities and challenges in the coming 12 months. Their insights never fail to inspire further discussion and hope. Here's what our experts have to say this year:

2009 is the year when the cellphone—not the laptop—will emerge as the learning infrastructure for the developing world. Initially, those educational applications linked most closely to local economic development will predominate. Also parents will have high interest in ways these devices can foster their children's literacy. Countries will begin to see the value of subsidizing this type of e-learning, as opposed to more traditional schooling. The initial business strategy will be a disruptive technology competing with non-consumption, in keeping with Christensen's models. —Chris Dede, Harvard University, USA

During the coming slump the risk of relying on free tools and services in learning will become apparent as small start-ups offering such services fail, and as big suppliers switch off loss-making services or start charging for them. The Open Educational Resources (OER) movement will strengthen, and will face up to the "cultural" challenges of winning learning providers and teachers to use OER. Large learning providers and companies that host VLEs will make increasing and better use of the data they have about learner behavior, for example, which books they borrow, which online resources they access, how long they spend doing what. —Seb Schmoller, Chief Executive of the UK's Association for Learning Technology (ALT), UK

It struck me as I looked at this list that it’s a lot like what I believe about children and computers: that student choice, plus time for unstructured access to lots of different computing experiences is crucial to developing literacy and fluency with computers. My vision includes a teacher or mentor modeling passion, collaboration, interest in the subject, and offering experiences that challenge students without coercion, tricks, or rankings. If I had to come up with a catchy acronym, I’d call it Sustained Tinkering Time (SST).

So, looking at this list, there are some things that seem really relevant to the kind of computer fluency I would like all students to have. Wouldn’t it be great if students had: Free access to lots of different kinds of books software and hardware The teacher reads works on computer projects too No tests, book reports, logs, comprehension quizzes Comfortable space to read work on computer projects and that this was for all kids, not a reward or remediation?

Students need to be able to evaluate information on screens upon which any sage, charlatan, or idiot can publish. That’s new (sort of. Books really are open to the same range of authors).

They need to learn “online identity management,” and I would argue that’s a new literacy. New because they’re publishing themselves, and that means reading/writing/speaking/filming/photo-ing (literacy), and 21st century because privacy has never been so porous as now. They need to know how to keep Big Brother, Big Employer, and Big Google from knowing too much.

They need to learn “social reading” online. By that attempt at a cute label I mean the ability to evaluate communication acts by strangers in social networks, emails, comment threads wherever, and the whole range of places people can attempt to connect to us individually now. They need to be able to “read” a phish, for example, and a fraudster, and yes, a p&rv.

However, while students and the administration may be embracing the practical upsides of the switch to gmail – great value, savings and reliability – faculty at Lakehead haven’t come under Google’s spell. In late 2006, the Lakehead faculty union filed a grievance with the university, now under arbitration, asserting that the e-mail system fails to protect their privacy and academic freedom. At the heart of the complaint is Google’s status as a U.S. company. Because Google is subject to American law, Lakehead will not be able to protect the contents of faculty’s e-mail from the U.S. government, which under the U.S. Patriot Act can compel Google to hand over data without even allowing the company to inform Lakehead that the transaction took place. Noting that Lakehead was the first school in North America that asked faculty, as well as students, to use an outsourced e-mail service, the Canadian Association of University Teachers has taken up the case. “If a faculty member knows that any e-mail they write, by virtue of it being handled by Google, could be subject to access and seizure by U.S. security agencies, they might be much less willing to share views with their colleagues” said CAUT Executive Director James Turk. “As we’ve seen all too often, very innocent things can attract the interest of American security officials.”

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