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A new era for commodities Cheap resources underpinned economic growth for much of the 20th century. The 21st will be different. NOVEMBER 2011 * Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, and Fraser Thompson Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Sustainability & Resource Productivity Practice In This Article Exhibit: In little more than a decade, soaring commodity prices have erased a century of steady declines. About the authors Comments (2) Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, volatile commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past eight years alone, they have undone the decline of the previous century, rising to levels not seen since the early 1900s (exhibit). In addition, volatility is now greater than at any time since the oil-shocked 1970s because commodity prices increasingly move in lockstep. Our analysis suggests that they will remain high and volatile for at least the next 20 years if current trends hold-barring a major macroeconomic shock-as global resource markets oscillate in response to surging global demand and inelastic supplies. Back to top Demand for energy, food, metals, and water should rise inexorably as three billion new middle-class consumers emerge in the next two decades.1 The global car fleet, for example, is expected almost to double, to 1.7 billion, by 2030. In India, we expect calorie intake per person to rise by 20 percent during that period, while per capita meat consumption in China could increase by 60 percent, to 80 kilograms (176 pounds) a year. Demand for urban infrastructure also will soar. China, for example, could annually add floor space totaling 2.5 times the entire residential and commercial square footage of the city of Chicago, while India could add floor space equal to another Chicago every year. Such dramatic growth in demand for commodities actually isn't unusual. Similar factors were at play throughout the 20th century as the planet's population tripled and demand for various resource

Although volatility in most assets is sharply lower than it was in November, oil price volatility has continued to climb. This rise in volatility, and resulting near $30-a-barrel oil price, is reflecting the same imbalances in the energy market that $147 oil did last summer: namely inadequate investment in basic infrastructure to produce, deliver, store and distribute energy. Last summer, attention focused on shortages in production capacity. However, present underlying shortages in storage and transportation are creating massive price distortions across the energy complex. Storage and transportation capacity provides the system with a buffer to supply-and-demand shocks by allowing it to run surpluses and deficits that smooth the normal cyclical swings in prices. As global storage capacity has failed to keep pace with growth in global demand over the past three decades, this buffer has shrunk relative to the size of the market, resulting in chronically higher than normal price volatility. Once infrastructure begins to constrain the ability of the market to run imbalances, prices have to create more of the adjustment process. Electricity markets are an extreme case of this. As power cannot be stored, supply must always equal demand, leaving price as the only mechanism to force the adjustment process. Accordingly, electricity is the most volatile of all assets. Due to inadequate infrastructure investment over the past several decades, oil is looking more like the electricity markets.

US speciality brass mill Ansonia Copper and Brass Inc. has announced that it will lay off 85 of the 102 employees at its Liberty Street, Ansonia, factory in Connecticut. The plant manufactures copper alloy rod and wires. Company President Raymond McGee said "it's a very, very difficult situation". He blamed the redundancies, on top of 76 employees laid off in April 2007, on the company's struggle with escalating costs. Since 2002 electricity costs have soared 239%, natural gas 200%, fuel oil 125%, and copper and nickel 500% apiece. Ansonia's other facility in Waterbury, CT, which manufacturers copper alloy tube is unaffected by the announcement.

Further evidence of the impact of the North American economic slowdown on copper demand has recently been published by the ABMS and government statistical bodies. North American copper wirerod production plummeted 9.6% year-on-year to 174,000 tonnes in April. Output had been on a downward trend but the magnitude of the deterioration in April has still come as something of a surprise. A year-on-year increase of 2.0% in North American output January had been followed a 1.0% fall in February and a 2.7% drop in March. In April Canadian output was flat year-on-year due to improving export sales to the US, while US production fell 9.8% year-on-year and Mexican shipments slumped by 17.5%. On a year-to-date basis North American wirerod production was 2.9% lower in the four months to April 2008. Weakening demand from the automotive industry, coupled with a resurgance in copper prices and the return of Russian wirerod imports has clearly led to a deteriorating market situation for domestic mills.

Mueller Industries second quarter results highlight the tough times that the US brass mill industry is facing, but that companies can still operate profitably in a challenging market environment. The company's plumbing and refrigeration segment saw sales fall 11% to US$404m, while its operating profits dropped 32% to US$35m. The company blamed lower shipment volumes and lower spreads for the weaker performance. Sales at the company's OEM division, which includes its brass rod activities, rose 10% year-on-year to US$354m, while its operating profits rose 5% to US$19m. The improvement here is due to acquisition of Extruded Metals. Commenting on the results Harvey Karp, Chairman of Mueller Industries said "Mueller's earnings for the first half of 2008 were achieved despite the continuing decline in the housing industry, the sub-prime mortgage meltdown, the turbulence in the financial markets, rising metal costs, sky-high energy prices and a slowing national economy. Considering these adverse circumstances, we are pleased with the results."

Mention copper to almost anyone in the PCB industry these days and the first thing that springs to mind is the ongoing price increase. Although copper pricing is not directly monitored by BPA, the impact on the price of laminate and PCBs is monitored through BPA's quarterly survey for its PCB Information Service. \n\nIn the short term, forecasted increases on the demand side for copper prices are likely to remain at least at the current level. The trend in copper usage has diverged in the fact that a number of different applications now exist. \n\nAt one time, 1 ounce (35µm) copper was standard, but the average is now 0.5 ounces. Using thinner copper, if the design will allow, can, to some extent, offset a price increase. However, one segment of the PCB industry which is particularly vulnerable to copper prices is the automotive sector, where recent developments have seen the introduction of thick copper PCBs for smart fuse boxes and power electronics. These boards use 4 ounce, 6 ounce and 10 ounce copper--up to 20 times the standard thickness.

Intraday copper three-month prices on the LME rose by 4.1% to US$ 2,940 per tonne on December 29th compared to the closing price on December 24th, affected by higher oil prices and the weaker US dollar. Increases in oil prices are correlated with increases in copper prices since investors see oil as a barometer for the entire commodity class. Then, the weaker US dollar makes metals cheaper for holders of other currencies. However, analysts remain pessimistic about the red metal due to plunging demand as the ongoing economic slowdown will continue to take its toll on the demand for copper.

South Africa's largest steel producer, ArcelorMittal South Africa, has announced its first price decrease for the year and will cut the price of both hot-rolled coil (HRC) and wire rod by 5% as from October. The price of HRC and wire rod, which provide the base prices for flat and long steel respectively, will decline from their record levels, with the price to be cut by about R500/t on just about about all grades, barring plate which will remain unchanged.

Despite a slowdown in the global economy and a softening in demand for aluminium rolled products in some regions, JSE-listed aluminium reroller Hulamin expected global demand to increase this year. CEO Alan Fourie on Tuesday commented that the company, which exported about 70% of its products, had seen some softening in demand for aluminium rolled products in some regions, but added that demand for these products was expected to grow by between 5% and 7% this year. "Obviously the slowdown of the [global] economy puts pressure on margins, it is an economic consequence, but we are still selling into a growing international market," he said. Locally, however, the softening economic climate was expected to impact on sales volumes for the second half of the year. However, Hulamin expected these high-value products to continue growing as a percentage of its sales in the next few years. Fourie noted that five years ago, these products equated to just over 50% of its sales volumes, while their contribution was just below 60% in 2007. They now comprised about 64% of its total sales volumes. Meanwhile, Hulamin stated that its costs had increased by 16%, influenced by a 58% increase in energy costs, increasing alloying costs caused by magnesium prices rising from $2 000/t to $4 500/t, and increases in other metals. Excluding the cost of increasing energy and metals prices, the company's costs had increased by 6%. Fourie noted that while the rising aluminium costs did not affect its profitability, it did have an effect on its working capital. "We hold aluminium in our working capital. So when the aluminium price increases, the cash tied up in working capital increases and we have seen a significant increase in working capital during this period, because the rand price of aluminium has increased by close to 40% in the last six months," he explained. Further, Fourie did not expect the increasing electricity prices to have too great an impact on its futu

Aluminum may have been responding to two different events in the week ending July 11 when it hit a succession of all-time price highs , but the market remains divided over the medium-term direction, given that world fundamentals point to weak demand and rising stock levels. \n\nFundamentally, however, analysts and market players were mixed in their impressions of whether the price could be sustained, especially as word emerged from China that the cuts may not be a certainty. \n\nAluminum finished floor trade for the week at $3,318/mt, up $150 from the July 4 closing price of $3,168. Fundamentally, however, analysts and market players were mixed in their impressions of whether the price could be sustained, especially as word emerged from China that the cuts may not be a certainty. \n\nPointed out a US broker, "When you hear producers [in China] are shutting production because demand is weak, that's normally bearish," yet the market saw "insane" price moves. "I hear metal just continues to pour into warehouses, and not all of it reported, obviously, [since] otherwise you'd see it in the stock numbers. A lot is going off warrant," he pointed out. \n\n\n

Newmont Mining Corp. posted a sharply higher second-quarter profit Thursday, with record-high gold prices and production gains pumping revenue past most analysts' expectations. Newmont (NEM:Newmont Mining Corporation News, chart, profile, more Last: 49.02+0.25+0.51% 2:30pm 07/25/2008 Delayed quote dataAdd to portfolio Analyst Create alertInsider Discuss Financials Sponsored by: NEM 49.02, +0.25, +0.5%) shares rose $1.82, or 3.9%, to close at $48.77. The stock is up 12% over the past 12 months. Newmont reported net income for the three months ended June 30 swung to $277 million, or 61 cents a share, from a year-ago loss of $2.06 billion, or $4.57 a share. The year-ago numbers were heavily skewed by a $1.67 billion write-down tied to the company's exit from merchant banking and a $460 million charge for settling price-capped forwards contracts. Adjusted earnings from ongoing operations more than doubled to $230 million, or 51 cents a share, from $103 million, or 23 cents, a year earlier. Gold sales during the quarter totaled 1.27 million equity ounces, fetching on average $900 an ounce, as the precious metal rode a huge spike in commodity prices. Gold prices were averaging about $600 an ounce a year ago. Costs per ounce rose, however, to $440 an ounce from $417 a year ago. Copper sales accounted for $183 million during the quarter, down from $340 million a year earlier. Newmont stood by its earlier 2008 production forecast of 5.1 million to 5.4 million ounces of gold, with production cost expected to range from $425 to $450 per ounce.

H1 reports from China's metal companies have revealed difficult operating conditions as rising energy prices, investment in environmental protection and an increase in resource tax have squeezed margins. Shares in the metal index fell 58.6% in the first half of the year, underperforming the SSE Composite Index which saw a 48% decrease. Copper companies fared better than most as the copper price remained at historically high levels and prices of sulphuric acid - a byproduct of the copper treatment process - soared. Jiangxi Copper, China's biggest producer, reported strong results with a 55% surge in revenues year-on-year. Net profit grew at the slower rate of 32.8%, reducing the company's profit margin to 10.4%, from 12.1% in the first half of 2007. The company has a slightly bearish outlook for the rest of this year, as the continued slowdown in the global economy takes its toll on copper demand and the appreciation of the dollar puts downward pressure on copper prices. However, it suspects copper supply will remain tight, which should support prices on the downside. Yunnan Copper Company struggled in the first half as revenue fell 18.9% and net profit plunged 29.5% y-o-y. The companies profit margin was cut to 3.8%, from 4.4% in the first half of 2007. A 45-day machine overhaul was blamed for the poor sales figures as output remained flat, whilst high energy prices pushed up production costs. Tongling Nonferrous Metals saw similar problems to Yunnan as rising raw material prices and fluctuations in the copper price cut the gross margin in the firm's copper unit to just 0.59%. Company-wide results were improved greatly by the strong performance of sulphuric acid, where gross margin increased to 71.6%, bringing Tongling's profit margin to 2.9%, up from 2.0% in H1 2007.

The commodity super-cycle is not over, it is just pausing. For the world economy to resume growth of 5 per cent, energy supply must expand by a similar rate. But with lower oil prices and a credit crunch, energy investment is plummeting, suggesting global energy demand will eventually pick up more rapidly than productive energy capacity. Assuming the ongoing global recession does not turn into a multi-year event that pushes energy demand down structurally, steep decline rates could again put upward pressure on oil prices as soon as 2010 or 2011. In particular, if the low oil price/high cost of money environment persists for most of this year and next, our base case scenario for non-OPEC production could prove optimistic, exacerbating the second leg of the commodity super-cycle. If and when the global economy starts to recover, too many dollars chasing too few barrels will only lead to much higher oil prices.

Positive expectations for copper producers have been generated by the recent increases in copper prices that reached US$4,725/t on the LME on 17th April. In Germany, copper smelter Aurubis expects that backed by rising prices the company will achieve oparating profits in the current fiscal year. Due to writedowns, the group suffered net losses in Q1 2009. In Poland, copper miner KGHM said that higher than expected prices may support the company to surpass its forecast. As a result, the company is updating its budget assumptions.

Steel prices are expected to reach £1000 a tonne by the end of the year, according to a survey carried out by the Federation of Environmental Trade Associations among a hundred member companies of the Association of Ductwork Contractors & Allied Services - a rise of 50% in just 12 months. The survey also found that while prices had risen by about 20% since December, they were expected to soar by over 30% in the following six months. There is also no sign of when the upward trend will peak. Paul Roxburgh of ADCAS, says, 'This is a problem that affects the whole industry, and one that requires a collective response. 'We will be working with our colleagues in the contracting sector to make sure that there's a realistic approach to increased costs - particularly in the context of long-term fixed-price contracts.' ADCAS is also to boost its efforts to boost efficiency, such as encouraging the use of only standard sizes for spiral ductwork and components.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) announced that it launched new Asian Benchmark reference prices for LME copper, LME aluminium, and LME zinc. The exchange said that new unofficial three month futures prices for the above contracts will be published at the end of the Asian trading day. As published on 24th January 2011, the first LME copper Asian Benchmark price was US$9,550.00/t. The LME attributed the introduction of the new benchmark prices to the increasing futures trading volume on LMEselect, the exchange's electronic trading platform, during Asian time zones. It is expected that the new reference prices will provide a transparent view of the sentiment across Asian key metal and financial markets.

"Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy Tweet this talk! (we'll add the headline and the URL) Post to: Share on Twitter Email This Favorite Download inShare Share on StumbleUpon Share on Reddit Share on Facebook TED Conversations Got an idea, question, or debate inspired by this talk? Start a TED Conversation, or join one of these: Green Home Energy=Hydrogen Generators-alternative sources Started by Kathleen Gilligan-Smith 1 Comment What is the real missing link in renewable energy? Started by Enrico Petrucco 8 Comments Comment on this Talk 60 total comments Sign in to add comments or Join (It's free and fast!) Sort By: smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Nice smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Good David Mackey 0 Reply 3 hours ago: Superb invention, but I would suggest one more standard mantra that they should move on from and that is the idea of power being supplied by a centralised grid. This technology seems to me to be much more beneficial on a local scale, what if every home had its own battery, then home power generation becomes economically more viable for everyone. If you could show that a system like this could pay for itself in say 5 years then every home would want one. Plus for this to be implemented on a large scale requires massive investment that could be decades away. Share the technology and lets get it in homes by next year. Great ted talk. Jon Senior 0 Reply 1 hour ago: I agree 100%. Localised energy production would also make energy consumers more conscious of their consumption and encourage efforts to reduce it. We can invent and invent all we want, but the fast solution to allowing renewable energies to take centre stage is to reduce the base energy draw. With lower baseline consumption, smaller "always on" generators are required to keep the grid operational. Town and house-l

Copper prices tumbled to a five-week low Thursday on expectations that falling demand from China and a slowdown in the U.S. housing market will lead to a surplus of the metal. Other commodities traded mixed, with crude oil rebounding slightly and gold, silver and soybeans falling. Corn and wheat futures rose. China, the world's biggest buyer of copper, has been importing less of the metal since the completion of most major construction projects heading into the Beijing summer Olympics. Copper imports in June fell 20 percent compared to May, China's custom's agency said this month. As a result, stockpiles of the metal have swelled in Shanghai and London, helping drive down prices.

"In my personal opinion, most plants are unlikely to actually cut back because of profit factors. The smelters agreed to cut back mainly because of tight power and high power costs, but for some, supply is not much affected, only costs have gone up. But the cost of shutting down and restarting might be even higher than the increased power prices," a source from Shaanxi Tongchuan aluminum said July 11. A source from Chuangyuan aluminum said, "We also signed the agreement, but that's just a piece of paper; there is no definite ruling to say we must cut output. We have no plans to cut output at the moment or in the short term, but we may consider cutting back in the future." The Chuangyuan source also cited the power versus shutdown cost ratioand noted that in any case the company has its own power plant. "We don't expect many of the other smelters at the meeting to cut either, including Chalco ... everyone will wait and see," he said. "Domestic prices have risen slightly, but mainly affected by the rise on the LME yesterday - there seems to be little fundamental impact within China itself," an analyst from Beijing Antaike said July 11. "People are all very uncertain and maybe confused now since there are no definite details on what the cutbacks will be." A Chinese trader said domestic demand and trade activity were also expected to slow due to the Olympics, and those plants that actually shut may be able to restart in the fourth quarter, so the impact on domestic prices would be minimal.

MOSCOW - In what would be one of the biggest mining deals in Russia this year, the metals tycoon Mikhail D. Prokhorov announced on Tuesday that he would sell 16.6 percent of the Arctic mining giant Norilsk Nickel to his former business partner, Vladimir O. Potanin. The two tycoons agreed last year to divide their holdings in Norilsk, a Russian factory founded by Stalin, whose value soared along with high commodity prices. Norilsk is the world's largest producer of nickel, a key alloy in stainless steel. Under the terms, as laid out in a statement from Mr. Prokhorov's investment company, Onexim, Mr. Potanin agreed to pay $10 billion for the 16.6 percent, in $6.5 billion cash and 35.2 percent of the shares in another mining company, Polyus Gold. The deal valued Norilsk Nickel at $315 a share, well above Monday's closing price of $216, and despite a recent drop in nickel prices, concerns of an economic slowdown and diminished demand for stainless steel.

Recent weakening copper prices does not necessarily mean that copper foil makers will have a potential price revision in the following months, as electricity costs are going to rise in October, said industry players.

Dave O'Reilly, chief executive of Chevron, said the oil-rich countries that erected barriers to international oil companies amid the run-up in commodity prices were now seeking their expertise in managing the drastic fall. "They're back now looking for [our] investment,'' Mr O'Reilly told Chevron's annual analysts' meeting. The high prices had led countries such as Venezuela and Russia to raise barriers to the international oil companies, which have gone from control of 85 per cent of the world's oil reserves in 1970 to less than 10 per cent now. With prices on the rise, these countries did not feel they had to be as careful with their resources; some began managing their own oil and gas and failed to reinvest adequate profits to maintain production.