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Wade Ren

Demographic projections and trade implications - 0 views

  •   To summarize the raw numbers, China’s population is expected to grow from 1.32 billion today to 1.46 billion in 2030, after which it will decline slowly, to around 1.42 billion in 2050.  Its working population is currently around 840 million.  This component of the population will rise in the next ten years to around 910 million and then will decline quite rapidly to around 790 million by 2050.
  • The graph below shows the composition of China’s population by age group.  Needless to say the most dramatic change is the explosive growth of the over-65 population, followed by the decline in the share of the young.  Another way of understanding this is to note that China’s median age basically climbs over this period from 24 to 45 (which, by the way, may have favorable consequence for long-term political stability).
  • I don’t have the figures yet from before 1990, but looking at other sources I would guess that China’s working population grew by about 2% or more annually during the 1970s and 1980s.  In the 1990s, as the table indicates, the growth rate of the working population slowed to 1.72%, declining further in the current decade to around 1.42% on average.  The number of working Chinese keeps growing until around the middle of the next decade, and then begins to decline by about half a percent a year.
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  • All this has important implications both for nominal growth rates and per capita growth rates in the next few decades.  For one thing, a country’s GDP growth rate can be expressed as a factor of the growth rate of its working population and the growth rate of average productivity per worker.  As the growth rate of the working population swings from positive to negative – by a little more than 2%, depending on what periods you compare – this will have a commensurate impact on Chinese GDP growth rates, i.e. all other things being equal (which of course they are not).  China’s equilibrium growth rate should be about 2% lower than the equilibrium growth rate of the past two or three decades.
  •  This implies that over the last three decades China has had a demographic bias towards trade surpluses (working population, a proxy for production, grew faster than total population, a proxy for consumption), but over the next three decades it is likely to have a demographic bias towards trade deficits.  
  • Three years ago I argued in a Wall Street Journal OpEd piece that because of the aging and declining populations of Europe and Japan (and to a lesser extent China and Russia), compared to the growing population and relatively stable age distribution in the US, it was not unreasonable for the former countries to run large current account surpluses with the US since they would need the accumulated claims against the US to pay for the current account deficits they would need to run to manage their demographic adjustments.  This is why I have never been terribly worried about the sustainability of the US trade deficit.  In the next decade it is likely that demographic changes will create pressures to reverse those US trade deficits.
Glycon Garcia

Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy | Video on TED.com - 0 views

  • Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy
  • What's the key to using alternative energy, like solar and wind? Storage -- so we can have power on tap even when the sun's not out and the wind's not blowing. In this accessible, inspiring talk, Donald Sadoway takes to the blackboard to show us the future of large-scale batteries that store renewable energy. As he says: "We need to think about the problem differently. We need to think big. We need to think cheap." Donald S
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    "Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy Tweet this talk! (we'll add the headline and the URL) Post to: Share on Twitter Email This Favorite Download inShare Share on StumbleUpon Share on Reddit Share on Facebook TED Conversations Got an idea, question, or debate inspired by this talk? Start a TED Conversation, or join one of these: Green Home Energy=Hydrogen Generators-alternative sources Started by Kathleen Gilligan-Smith 1 Comment What is the real missing link in renewable energy? Started by Enrico Petrucco 8 Comments Comment on this Talk 60 total comments Sign in to add comments or Join (It's free and fast!) Sort By: smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Nice smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Good David Mackey 0 Reply 3 hours ago: Superb invention, but I would suggest one more standard mantra that they should move on from and that is the idea of power being supplied by a centralised grid. This technology seems to me to be much more beneficial on a local scale, what if every home had its own battery, then home power generation becomes economically more viable for everyone. If you could show that a system like this could pay for itself in say 5 years then every home would want one. Plus for this to be implemented on a large scale requires massive investment that could be decades away. Share the technology and lets get it in homes by next year. Great ted talk. Jon Senior 0 Reply 1 hour ago: I agree 100%. Localised energy production would also make energy consumers more conscious of their consumption and encourage efforts to reduce it. We can invent and invent all we want, but the fast solution to allowing renewable energies to take centre stage is to reduce the base energy draw. With lower baseline consumption, smaller "always on" generators are required to keep the grid operational. Town and house-l
Colin Bennett

Confronting Slow Rate of Auto Technology Change - 0 views

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    But the new technologies-which could help consumers cope with these prices-are unlikely to arrive in large numbers in time for the next oil spike. According to the authors of "The Impact of Plug-in Hybrids on U.S. Oil Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions," a chapter in the new book Plug-in Electric Vehicles: What Role for Washington, published by the Brookings Institution, cars are durable goods that last well over a decade. "The transformation of the light-vehicle fleet to new internal combustion technologies or to hybrid and plug-in hybrid technologies will take decades from the time such vehicles are widely available at competitive prices," according to the authors, Alan Madian, Lisa Walsh and Kim Simpkins, researchers at consulting firm LECG. They believe it could take another decade from now until the new technologies compete on a price basis, and begin the process of replacing current fleets.
anonymous

A new era for commodities - McKinsey Quarterly - Energy, Resources, Materials - Environ... - 1 views

  • A new era for commodities
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    A new era for commodities Cheap resources underpinned economic growth for much of the 20th century. The 21st will be different. NOVEMBER 2011 * Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, and Fraser Thompson Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Sustainability & Resource Productivity Practice In This Article Exhibit: In little more than a decade, soaring commodity prices have erased a century of steady declines. About the authors Comments (2) Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, volatile commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past eight years alone, they have undone the decline of the previous century, rising to levels not seen since the early 1900s (exhibit). In addition, volatility is now greater than at any time since the oil-shocked 1970s because commodity prices increasingly move in lockstep. Our analysis suggests that they will remain high and volatile for at least the next 20 years if current trends hold-barring a major macroeconomic shock-as global resource markets oscillate in response to surging global demand and inelastic supplies. Back to top Demand for energy, food, metals, and water should rise inexorably as three billion new middle-class consumers emerge in the next two decades.1 The global car fleet, for example, is expected almost to double, to 1.7 billion, by 2030. In India, we expect calorie intake per person to rise by 20 percent during that period, while per capita meat consumption in China could increase by 60 percent, to 80 kilograms (176 pounds) a year. Demand for urban infrastructure also will soar. China, for example, could annually add floor space totaling 2.5 times the entire residential and commercial square footage of the city of Chicago, while India could add floor space equal to another Chicago every year. Such dramatic growth in demand for commodities actually isn't unusual. Similar factors were at play throughout the 20th century as the planet's population tripled and demand for various resource
Colin Bennett

Energy volatility reflects lack of investment in oil industry - 0 views

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    Although volatility in most assets is sharply lower than it was in November, oil price volatility has continued to climb. This rise in volatility, and resulting near $30-a-barrel oil price, is reflecting the same imbalances in the energy market that $147 oil did last summer: namely inadequate investment in basic infrastructure to produce, deliver, store and distribute energy. Last summer, attention focused on shortages in production capacity. However, present underlying shortages in storage and transportation are creating massive price distortions across the energy complex. Storage and transportation capacity provides the system with a buffer to supply-and-demand shocks by allowing it to run surpluses and deficits that smooth the normal cyclical swings in prices. As global storage capacity has failed to keep pace with growth in global demand over the past three decades, this buffer has shrunk relative to the size of the market, resulting in chronically higher than normal price volatility. Once infrastructure begins to constrain the ability of the market to run imbalances, prices have to create more of the adjustment process. Electricity markets are an extreme case of this. As power cannot be stored, supply must always equal demand, leaving price as the only mechanism to force the adjustment process. Accordingly, electricity is the most volatile of all assets. Due to inadequate infrastructure investment over the past several decades, oil is looking more like the electricity markets.
Colin Bennett

A new Energy Policy for the new European Commission? - 0 views

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    "The collapse of key energy policy pillars of Barroso's decade 1. The world has cheaper and more abundant fossil fuels than expected. 2. The EU internal Market conceived for gas-fuelled plants competition (CCGTs) has to deal with a fierce RES subsidised push. 3. The EU Green Revolution (to push us as world R&D and leading manufacturer of a decade-long green growth) is gone. 4. Carbon pricing originated in the EU and was adopted to some degree here and there but ceased to offer any incentive to change the EU vis-à-vis GHG emissions. 5. The EU Supply Security is lower than at the fall of the Soviet Union, or before the Bush-Blair invasion in Iraq; and the EU has to address it by itself. Then what are the key components that can put EU energy policy back on track toward reaching our 2020-2030 goals? The following policy brief offers a new vision of the energy policy for our new Commission from an independent, academic point of view."
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$6bn to be spent on Africa cable projects over two years - BMI-Tech - 0 views

  • Companies would spend more than $6-billion on submarine and terrestrial fibre optic cable infrastructure projects in Africa over the next two years, as countries scramble to boost international connectivity, market analysis firm BMI-TechKnowledge (BMI-T) said on Wednesday. In its latest research report, entitled ‘Outlook for submarine and terrestrial fibre-optic cable developments in Africa', BMI-T said that the effective high-speed internet services required for critical business, government and consumer applications have remained either unavailable or very expensive in Africa. Governments' awareness of this situation, and the perceived commercial attractiveness of the opportunity to close this gap, has given rise to the current frenetic activity for construction of submarine fibre cables on the continent.
  • Investment in Africa's ICT infrastructure has improved significantly over the past decade. However, marked deficiencies persist in the backbone networks across the continent. "Although countries on the African west and southern coasts have access to fibre connectivity through the SAT-3 undersea cable, an estimated 80% of Africa's international voice and data traffic is carried via satellite," said Chanakira
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    Companies would spend more than $6-billion on submarine and terrestrial fibre optic cable infrastructure projects in Africa over the next two years, as countries scramble to boost international connectivity, market analysis firm BMI-TechKnowledge (BMI-T) said on Wednesday. In its latest research report, entitled 'Outlook for submarine and terrestrial fibre-optic cable developments in Africa', BMI-T said that the effective high-speed internet services required for critical business, government and consumer applications have remained either unavailable or very expensive in Africa. Governments' awareness of this situation, and the perceived commercial attractiveness of the opportunity to close this gap, has given rise to the current frenetic activity for construction of submarine fibre cables on the continent. Investment in Africa's ICT infrastructure has improved significantly over the past decade. However, marked deficiencies persist in the backbone networks across the continent. "Although countries on the African west and southern coasts have access to fibre connectivity through the SAT-3 undersea cable, an estimated 80% of Africa's international voice and data traffic is carried via satellite," said Chanakira.
Colin Bennett

European bank supports grid connection between UK and Netherlands - 0 views

  • The new link will be particularly significant to the development of a European offshore grid able to integrate increasing levels of offshore wind and marine power in coming decades.
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    "The new link will be particularly significant to the development of a European offshore grid able to integrate increasing levels of offshore wind and marine power in coming decades."
Colin Bennett

China builds way to top of construction league - 0 views

  • The rise to the top of global construction, which coincides with China’s displacement of Japan as the world’s second-largest economy, underlines a decade- long power shift in the industry from the mature markets of the US, Japan and western Europe to China, India and a clutch of smaller emerging economies.
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    "The rise to the top of global construction, which coincides with China's displacement of Japan as the world's second-largest economy, underlines a decade- long power shift in the industry from the mature markets of the US, Japan and western Europe to China, India and a clutch of smaller emerging economies."
Colin Bennett

Graphene Overtaking Carbon Nanotubes - 0 views

  • Carbon Nanotubes (CNTs) have not yet met commercial expectations from a decade ago, and now hot on its heels is graphene. Graphene is considered a hot candidate for applications such as computers, displays, photovoltaics, and flexible electronics. IDTechEx market forecasts indicate that CNT and graphene transistors may be commercially available in volume from 2015 onwards, according to the new report \"Carbon Nanotubes and Graphene for Electronics Applications 2011-2021\". According to IDTechEx, the biggest opportunity for both materials is in printed and potentially printed electronics, where the value of these devices that partly incorporate these materials will reach over $44 billion in 2021.
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    "Carbon Nanotubes (CNTs) have not yet met commercial expectations from a decade ago, and now hot on its heels is graphene. Graphene is considered a hot candidate for applications such as computers, displays, photovoltaics, and flexible electronics. IDTechEx market forecasts indicate that CNT and graphene transistors may be commercially available in volume from 2015 onwards, according to the new report \"Carbon Nanotubes and Graphene for Electronics Applications 2011-2021\". According to IDTechEx, the biggest opportunity for both materials is in printed and potentially printed electronics, where the value of these devices that partly incorporate these materials will reach over $44 billion in 2021."
Colin Bennett

Africa Electricity Metering Market Value To Grow 234% Over Next Decade - 1 views

  • Sub-Saharan Africa's electricity metering market will see the fastest growth of any region in the world over the next decade.
Colin Bennett

China builds first 330 mile high speed rail segment for Turkey, As Turkey and other cou... - 0 views

  • China is also planning to build trillions of dollars of infrastructure for the entire world over the next few decades.
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    " China is also planning to build trillions of dollars of infrastructure for the entire world over the next few decades."
Hans De Keulenaer

Sustainable business in Asia: 5 trends that will impact a decisive decade | GreenBiz - 1 views

  • The decisive decade of the 2020s has arrived and will deliver the impact of key sustainability trends on business in Asia.
Colin Bennett

The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities - 0 views

  • The report concludes that the emerging economies are set to grow much faster than the G7 over the next four decades. Figures for average growth in GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms (which adjusts for price level differences across countries) show Nigeria leading the way over the period from 2012 to 2050, followed by Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. John Hawksworth, PwC Chief Economist and co-author of the report, explains: "The global financial crisis has hit the G7 much harder than the E7 in the short term. And it has also caused downward revisions in the estimates of longer term trend growth in the G7 – particularly those economies in Europe and the US that had previously relied on excessive public and private borrowing to drive growth.” This means that, in PPP terms: The E7 could overtake the G7 before 2020 By 2050 China, the US and India could be by far the largest economies – with a big gap to Brazil in fourth place, ahead of Japan And by the same time, Russia, Mexico and Indonesia could be bigger than Germany or the UK; Turkey could overtake Italy; and Nigeria could rise up the league table, as could Vietnam and South Africa in the longer term. Beyond the largest economies, Malaysia has considerable long-term growth potential, while Poland could continue to outpace its Western European neighbours for some decades to come.
Colin Bennett

Why We Still Don't Have Better Batteries - 2 views

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    In fact, many researchers believe energy storage will have to take an entirely new chemistry and new physical form, beyond the lithium-ion batteries that over the last decade have shoved aside competing technologies in consumer electronics, electric vehicles, and grid-scale storage systems.
Colin Bennett

Aluminium buckles under weight of supply pressure - 1 views

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    Mr Kloppers can afford to dislike aluminium; the majority of his profits come from iron ore, oil and coal. But for the rest of the industry, his comments have sparked a debate: after a decade of sub-par profitability, is it still worth investing in aluminium?
Colin Bennett

Association of European Automotive and Industrial Battery Manufacturers - Sustainabilit... - 0 views

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    The battery technology for plug-in HEVs and EVs (both fixed and removable) has evolved tremendously over the last decade with the introduction of lithium-based batteries complementing lead-, nickel- and sodium-based technologies. These technologies will all continue to have a significant impact on electro-mobility as they may give cost and/or performance advantages for specific applications, for example as start-stop and hybrid solutions. The selection of a technology depends on the requirements for performance, life and cost for a given application. Given the diversity of possible operating modes, there is no one battery system or technology that covers the entire range of application needs sufficiently. On the contrary, different battery energy storage technologies exist and each of them has a role to play in the future as the best solution to the needs of a system depending on their specific attributes: * Lead-based: for start-stop micro application, up to mild HEVs * Nickel-based: for HEV applications only * Lithium-based: for HEV, plug-in HEV and full EVs * Sodium-based: for Plug-in HEV and full EVs
Colin Bennett

The Global Economy in 2014, by Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Mone... - 0 views

  • In just a few days, we will be releasing our updated forecasts. While our numbers are still being finalized, I will talk about the main trends as we see them.
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    * Momentum strengthened in the latter half of 2013, and should strengthen further in 2014-largely due to improvements in the advanced economies. * Yet, global growth is still stuck in low gear. It remains below its potential, which we think is somewhere around 4 percent. * Even for the advanced economies, however, the outlook is still subject to significant risks. With inflation running below many central banks' targets, we see rising risks of deflation, which could prove disastrous for the recovery. * During the years of crisis, we have relied on the emerging markets to keep the global economy afloat. Together with the developing countries, they accounted for three-quarters of global growth over the past half decade. However, a growing number of emerging markets are slowing down as the economic cycle turns.
Colin Bennett

United Kingdom will pour hundreds of billions of dollars into transport, and other infr... - 0 views

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    "Over the next decade and a half , the United Kingdom will pour hundreds of billions of dollars into transport, and other infrastructure projects."
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Fuel Cells for Portable Electronics, and Beyond - 0 views

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    Hydrogen fuel-cell cars have received a great deal of attention over the years as a clean alternative to petroleum-based transportation, producing only water for exhaust. Certainly the technology is known. Demonstration vehicles have been produced by several manufacturers and Honda is starting to roll out a fleet of 200 FCX Clarity fuel-cell cars, available for lease to select customers for US $600 per month. These autos are costing Honda hundreds of thousands of dollars each though, according to Honda's president Takeo Fukui (Wall Street Journal, June 16 2008), and it will take another decade before their cost falls below US $100,000. Although fuel-cell cars remain a long way from providing commercially viable transportation for the vast majority of people, cars are not the only application for fuel cells. Fuel cells are reaching commercial viability sooner in other applications such as portable electronics, including laptops, cell phones, MP3 players and games, aiming to supplement the ability of batteries to power these mobile devices for extended periods of time. There are a number of reasons why fuel cells may prove more competitive in portable electronics than in cars, including the favorable cost, lifetime requirement and easier distribution in this market. One of the companies developing fuel-cell technology for portable electronics is Polyfuel, using its proprietary hydrocarbon membrane technology for direct methanol fuel cells. The cost of power for portable electronics, according to Polyfuel president and CEO Jim Balcom, is up to US $10,000 per watt, compared with US $20-50 for autos, making portable electronics a much more attractive market than cars initially.
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