Group items tagged

Top Trends for 2009: On our GloboTrends wiki homepage, we will keep an updated list of global macro trends that we think are the most important to keep an eye on. Some of this list are statistically unlikely to occur, but if they did, it could cause global disruption. These unlikely events were dubbed Black Swan's in a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb , or might be called the "fat tail" probability in statistics. Others trends we are watching in the GloboTrends wiki are currently ongoing right now (such as our coverage of the credit crisis, deleveraging, margin calls, etc), and we will talk about how they happened, and predict their likely outcome. The format of a wiki makes the document dynamic, so any of our community is welcome to help shape our views of these important developments. Please log in to our wiki, and feel free to comment... In no particular order, here are the global macro trends that we think will be most significant in the coming year (2009): 1. credit crisis of 2007/08 will continue on into 2009...this one is clear...but, how long will it last? how will it fundamentally change international finance? Add your comments to our wiki... 2. fiscal stimulus and crisis recovery 2009 3. deleveraging of Financial markets will continue. In my opinion, this is the most destructive of all the trends. 4. Risk of deflation in the US as Fed Funds target rate approaches zero (other analysts see the opposite risk of potential hyper inflation). Add your comments.. 5. more... add to this list.. Predictions-for-2009

ICSG 1 Feb 09 - Based on existing facilities and announced project developments, annual mine production capacity in the period 2009-2013 is expected to grow at an average rate of around 4.3% per year (%/yr) to reach 23.1 Mt in 2013, an increase of around 3.6 Mt (19%) from that in 2009. Of the total increase, copper in concentrate capacity is expected to increase by 2.7Mt (4.3%/yr) to reach 17.9 Mt and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) production by 820,000t (4.4%/yr) to reach 5.2 Mt. Most of the new mine projects and expansions are located in Brazil, Chile, Congo, Mongolia, Peru, the United States and Zambia, which together account for around 2.6 Mt (73%) of the projected mine capacity increase during this period. Annual smelter capacity is projected to grow by an average of 2.6%/yr to reach 20.2 Mt in 2013, an increase of 2 Mt (11%) from that in 2009. Asia will be the leading contributor to growth (1.8 Mt), with expansions and new projects expected mostly in China, but also in India, Indonesia and Iran. Africa is the second leading contributor owing to developments in Zambia. North American smelting capacity will fall by 12% (250kt) due to closures of plants in Canada. The ICSG tabulations indicate that world refinery capacity will reach 26.6 Mt in 2013, an increase of 3.2 Mt (13%) from that in 2009. About 2.3 Mt of the expansion is expected to come from electrolytic refineries and 820,000t from electrowinning capacity. Electrolytic refinery capacity growth is projected to average 3.1%/yr, exceeding the projected growth in smelter capacity, and electrowinning capacity growth (at the refinery level) is expected to average 4.3%/yr. About one half (1.5 Mt) of the world refinery capacity increase during this period is expected to come from electrolytic refineries in China; about 25% (830,000 t) from electrolytic capacity increases in India, Indonesia and Iran; and about 20% (600,000 t) from electrowinning capacity increases in Congo, Peru and Zambia.

Teck Resources Ltd. has cut its 2009 and 2010 copper production estimate from Highland Valley by millions of pounds because of geotechnical issues, the company said Thursday. The cuts will amount to about 35 million pounds in the second half of 2009 and 115 million pounds in 2010, reducing total production from all sources to less than 700 million pounds in 2009 and 755 million in 2010.

Nexans published its Q3 2009 sales figures and reported revenues of €1.27 billion (US$1.90 billion) compared to €1.69 billion (US$2.53 billion) in Q3 2008, a decline of 25%. At constant metal prices, sales in Q3 2009 amounted to €988 million (US$1.48 billion), which corresponds to a 19% organic decrease. For the nine months ending September 30 the company reported an organic fall in cable business sales of 17%, based on constant metal prices calculations. This compares with a 16% contraction experienced in H1 2009. Nexans said that lower building cable sales in Europe and Asia-Pacific as well as setbacks in the execution of high voltage contracts affected its sales figures. Energy cable revenues in Q3 were down by 13% y-o-y; those of telecom cables plunged by 19% y-o-y. In line with planned cutbacks in production capacity, electrical wire sales in Q3 were down by 35% y-o-y.

LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) said Monday it expects to generate between $2.8 billion and $3 billion in revenue and ship between 1.45 gigawatts and 1.55 gigawatts of silicon wafers in 2009. The Chinese company also said its wafer manufacturing plant has reached 1 gigawatt of annual capacity. It's a noteworthy milestone on the way to production capacity targets of 1.2 gigawatts by the end of the year, 2.2 gigawatts by the end of 2009 and 3.2 gigawatts by 2010 that the company announced earlier this month. LDK shares rose more than 8 percent to reach $49.63 per share in recent trading. The wafer maker's stock has climbed since it posted blockbuster second-quarter earnings on Aug. 11. LDK's net income grew more than fivefold year-over-year to reach $149.5 million, or $1.29 per share. Second-quarter sales more than quadrupled to $441.7 million from $99.1 million from the year-ago period (see LDK 2Q Profit Triples, Margin Falls). Strong demand for its wafers has prompted the company to expand its production capacity quickly. LDK also plans to start making it own polysilicon, in addition to buying the raw material for making the wafers. Production at LDK's first polysilicon plant is expected to begin soon and produce between 100 metric tons and 350 metric tons by December. The company is also building a second plant (see LDK Silicon Confirms Plant Is on Track). LDK CEO Xiaofeng Peng told analysts two weeks ago that the company had a backlog of more than 12 gigawatts of wafer orders. LDK expects to generate between $1.65 billion and $1.75 billion in revenue and ship between 750 megawatts and 770 megawatts of wafers for the whole of 2008.

The trendspotters at JWT are predicting: - The mobile device as everything hub: Mobile rules. If you're a marketer, take note, made-for-PC sites don't make the cut for a mobile experience. - Customizable mobile: Apple's iPhone made mobile applications all the rage and other smartphone makers are having to follow suit. JWT says watch for more open mobile systems and an "onslaught" of mobile apps. - Decline of email: If you've tried emailing a teen lately you may have noticed that's considered only slightly less old-school than two tin cans and a string when it comes to communications. Text messaging, social networks like Facebook and Twitter are increasingly preferred by email recipients who are ready to cry uncle under the weight of their inboxes. According to JWT, after a decade of dominance, email will gradually be eclipsed by more efficient, manageable solutions. Hear, hear. - Cloud Computing: Software, storage -- everything we needed in our desktop computers or carried around in our laptops is now in the 'cloud.' Wikipedia calls the cloud a metaphor for the Internet, an explanation that is difficult to convey to new users. I found myself trying to explain this to a friend as I was helping her set up a netbook she received as a Christmas present. She wanted to know: Was it on the computer? On a disk? On a USB drive? I just waved my hands in the air and said 'it's all on the Internet now.' That, plus the appearance of 600 of her holiday photos on an online photo site seemed to convince her. - Social networking for jobseekers: With companies handing out more pink slips than Christmas bonuses in the past month or so, jobseekers who know how to maximize the benefits of such sites as LinkedIn and others will find those social networking skills could come in handy. - Web/TV convergence: This prediction has been paraded out in one form or another for quite a while and no telling if 2009 will be its year. The convergence of entertainment media on one viewing device

The falling oil prices may have varied effects on the investment strategies adopted by the petro-states and also on the various markets being analyzed in this study. The level of petrodollar investments is bound to increase. However, if the trend of falling oil prices continue, the quantum of investments made is also likely to fall. On the whole, dramatic growth is expected in the level of domestic investments in 2009. However, international investments are likely to continue growing in a few key sectors of the economy. The following are the various international sectors that can be expected to attract maximum petrodollar investments in 2009 * Real estate * Healthcare * Industrial The following are the various domestic sectors that can be expected to attract maximum petrodollar investments in 2009 * Banking and financial services * Aerospace and defense * Industrial * Education

Furukawa Electric has reported a recent improvement in its magnet wire production, and plans a monthly production in fiscal 2009 (ending March 2010) of 1,500 tonnes of enamelled wire and 85,000 km of triple insulated magnet wire; this is 70-75% (for enamelled wire) and 80-85% (for triple insulated magnet wire) of the peak levels produced in April-September 2008. Enamelled wire production could reach 1,700-1,800 tonnes per month in October 2009-March 2010. Furukawa Electric's domestic magnet wire production is being consolidated into its Mie Works in order to cut costs; production at its Hiratsuka Works will transfer to Mie within 2009.

Japanese electric wire and cable manufacturer Fujikura Ltd reported consolidated financial results for the first quarter ended 30 June 2009. The company achieved sales of ¥112.93b (US$1.19b) for the first quarter, 28.7% lower than the same period a year ago. Operating income for the first quarter was ¥1.84b (US$19.4m), 50.3% lower than the year-ago level. Net income for the same period was ¥111m (US$1.17m), 94.3% lower than a year ago. The company is expecting to make a net loss of ¥800m (US$8.43m) for the first half ending 30 September 2009.

Fujikura Dia Cable (FDC), the joint venture of Fujikura and Mitsubishi Cable Industries, announced a 14% year-on-year decline in their building cables shipment for the period April-September 2008. FDC describe the current situation as a difficult one, especially due to weak demand. The manufacturer, facing decreased inventory value due to falling copper prices, has to sell at relatively low prices reducing profit margins. FDC cable shipments fell by 8% in 2007 and the initial target for 2008 was to grow back to the 2006 level. However, this was revised down because of sales results. Overall profitability is also affected by rising prices of insulating and sheathing materials.

Japanese electric wire and cable manufacturer Fujikura Ltd reported consolidated financial results for the first quarter ended 30 June 2009. The company achieved sales of ¥112.93b (US$1.19b) for the first quarter, 28.7% lower than the same period a year ago. Operating income for the first quarter was ¥1.84b (US$19.4m), 50.3% lower than the year-ago level. Net income for the same period was ¥111m (US$1.17m), 94.3% lower than a year ago. The company is expecting to make a net loss of ¥800m (US$8.43m) for the first half ending 30 September 2009.

Over the past six weeks, executives have become markedly more optimistic about current economic conditions and prospects for their national economies, a new McKinsey survey shows. Expectations started out so gloomy, however, that even now, fewer than a third expect an economic upturn this year, and two-thirds expect their nations' GDPs to decrease in 2009.\n\nSimilarly, at the company level, more executives still expect to shed workers than to hire, but the share expecting to decrease the workforce has fallen below half for the first time since January. And a full third of respondents now expect profits to increase in 2009, up 8 percent in six weeks. Furthermore, even though respondents see fallout from the crisis in a variety of financial and nonfinancial measures such as employee morale and the pace of innovation, strong majorities expect those effects to be short-lived.

"In the past twenty years, more stringent energy codes and environmental standards have led to many higher performance building designs that use less energy. Oftentimes, high performance buildings that incorporate passive building strategies require active occupant engagement [Brown et al. (2009) [1]] but the people who work in these buildings on a daily basis may not comprehend how their actions (negatively or positively) affect the building's energy use [Janda (2009) [2]]. Additionally, minimal research exists surrounding educational strategies for how to best educate building occupants. The purpose of this study was to investigate existing occupant training in high performance buildings to provide recommendations for future occupant education efforts."

The redeveloped World Trade Center will be "one of the largest fuel cell installations in the world" according to the New York Power Authority (NYPA). Under the US$10.6 million agreement between NYPA and fuel cell developer and provider UTC Power, fuel cells with a total capacity of 4.8MW will provide an on-site supplement to the renewable and other clean energy that will power the rebuilt centre. The first fuel cells will be delivered to the Freedom Tower in January 2009, and will be owned and operated by the Port Authority, which also owns the building. The fuel cells for the other three towers will be owned and operated by World Trade Center Properties, LLC. "Fuel cells are one of the environmentally beneficial technologies that the Power Authority is investing in under Governor Paterson's leadership to combat greenhouse gas emissions and diversify the state's energy mix. To date, we've installed 15 fuel cells in New York City and other locations, and expect to add to this total in support of the Governor's ambitious goals for significant increases in the state's renewable power," says Roger B Kelley, NYPA President and Chief Executive Officer.

Following on from its 2008 report on corporate sustainability, the Economist Intelligence Unit has released a major new research report at its 2009 Sustainability Summit, focusing specifically on climate change and what it means for business. The research was sponsored by the Carbon Trust, KPMG, SAP and Shell.

Blog readers have two days to make one-sentence predictions as to the most unexpected major news story of 2009.

With prediction markets being all the rage, this article from Freakonomics is timely.

Copper demand is likely to remain relatively strong in 2009 despite the world economic slowdown, the chief executive of Norddeutsche Affinerie, Europe's largest copper refinery, said on Wednesday.

South Korean President Lee Myung-baksaid Monday that his government targets an annual economic growth of four percent in 2009.

The world economy is set to shrink by between 0.5% and 1.0% in 2009, the first global contraction in 60 years.