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THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

THE REVPAR OF U.S. hotels is expected to surpass 2019 levels this year, according to the upgraded forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. Still, full recovery may be a couple of years away. ADR and RevPAR for U.S. hotels are forecasted at $14 and $6 higher in 2022 respectively, when compared to 2019, the report presented at the 44th annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference stated. However, occupancy in this year is projected to come in under the pre-pandemic comparable. Earlier, the forecast projected nominal RevPAR recovery in 2023. According to the forecast, the major factor in the revised timeline was a plus $11 adjustment in 2022 ADR. But, when adjusted for inflation, full recovery of ADR and RevPAR are not projected until 2024. The report added that central business districts and the top 25 markets are not expected to reach full RevPAR recovery until after 2024.

ADR is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2024, with occupancy and RevPAR remaining unchanged from the previous forecast, according to STR and Tourism Economics' initial U.S. hotel forecast for 2024 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit. Yet, 2025 projections for key performance metrics were revised downward due to stabilized long-term average trends: occupancy down 0.1 percentage points, ADR down 0.3 points and RevPAR down 0.5 ppts. "U.S. ADR and RevPAR reached record highs in 2023 with solid travel fundamentals and a big year for group business underpinning performance," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "We expect to see continued growth as fundamentals remain more favorable for the travel economy. The indicator that is especially important is the low unemployment rate among college-educated individuals, those most likely to travel for business and leisure." The STR and Tourism Economics forecast a rise in GOPPAR growth due to increased TRevPAR levels and stable labor costs. Among chain scales, luxury and upper upscale hotels are expected to see substantial cost increases, driven by growing group demand.

DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

OCCUPANCY PROJECTIONS ARE dropping while ADR projections are rising in a new forecast for U.S. hotels by STR and Tourism Economics. RevPAR is still expected to recover fully on a nominal basis this year, according to the forecast released Thursday at STR's 14th Annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville. However, RevPAR is still expected to take until 2025 to recover when adjusted for inflation, according to the forecast. For 2022, RevPAR is now expected to average $93 compared to the projection of $92 released in June, when projected nominal RevPAR recovery was set in 2023. The occupancy projection for the year was lowered to 64.6 percent for the year and the ADR projection rose to $148. The updated forecast adds a little more than $2 to the ADR projection for both 2022 and 2023, and occupancy was lowered by less than a percentage point for each year.

STR AND TOURISM ECONOMICS have increased year-over-year growth projections for ADR and RevPAR in the final revision of the U.S. hotel forecast for 2023. While some factors, such as higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, may impact the economy, their effect on the travel industry is not expected to be strong. In 2023, RevPAR saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, propelled by a 0.6ppt rise in ADR growth, according to STR and TE. Meanwhile, recent RevPAR trends affirm rate as the predominant performance driver. Occupancy was downgraded by 0.2ppts, STR and TE said in a statement. Growth projections for key performance metrics in 2024 remained flat from the previous forecast, reflecting the stabilization of long-term average trends.

ADR FOR U.S. hotels was the highest in February for any month since August 2021, according to STR. The U.S. hotel industry reported higher performance during the month from the month before. Occupancy was 56.9 percent for February, up from 47.8 percent in January and down 8.2 percent compared to same period in 2019. ADR was $137.39 for the month, increased from $123.51 the prior month and up 6.8 percent from the same month two years ago. RevPAR was $78.24, up from $58.98 in January and down 1.9 percent from two years ago. The February ADR level was roughly 5 percent below the 2019 level when adjusted for inflation, the report said.

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

THE REVPAR OF hotels in Phoenix is forecasted to reach $419 for Super Bowl weekend of February 10-12, the second-highest level for the event, according to STR. As the city also hosts Phoenix Open this week, the Friday through Sunday night occupancy may touch 94 percent and ADR to hit $445. According to STR, a unique volume of demand would push occupancy slightly higher than Phoenix's last host year in 2015 (93.7 percent) even though supply increased by 11.7 percent this year. The ADR level would rank third among host markets behind Miami in 2020 and San Francisco in 2016. "Phoenix's jump in RevPAR during its last Super Bowl host year was staggering, and this time around will be no different with big-time growth contribution from both occupancy and ADR," said Isaac Collazo, STR's vice president of analytics. "Demand speaks for itself, especially with consumer behavior around the event free of pandemic concerns-unlike the last two Super Bowls. Phoenix's ADR situation has different influences than recent host markets given inflation and having less upper-tier supply than a Los Angeles or Miami." The overall Phoenix market comprises 544 hotels with 70,488 rooms.

A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.

A STRONG PERFORMANCE by U.S. hotels during the first quarter of 2022, along with other factors, are leading CBRE Hotels Research to raise its forecast for the rest of the year. The research firm now expects a full recovery in ADR in 2022 and in demand and RevPAR in 2023. First quarter RevPAR reached $72.20, up 61 percent from year earlier, despite a surge from the COVID-19 omicron variant, according to CBRE. RevPAR growth was driven by a 39 percent increase in ADR and a 16 percent increase in occupancy. ADR was 5 percent ahead of 2019's levels, marking the third consecutive quarter in which levels exceed the same period in 2019. These rising rates demonstrate that travelers aren't price-sensitive in many peak-demand markets.

OCCUPANCY AND ADR in U.S. hotels will continue to grow in 2022, with a year-over-year rebound in RevPAR of 14.4 percent, around 93 percent of pre-pandemic levels, according to PwC. Meanwhile, ADR in the third and fourth quarter of 2022 is expected to surpass comparable 2019 levels. The near-term outlook for the U.S. lodging sector by PwC, titled U.S. Hospitality Directions: November 2021 has said that the vast majority of temporarily-closed hotels will have reopened and demand growth, particularly from individual business travelers and groups, will improve if infection rates continue to drop in 2022. According to PwC report, continued demand recovery will result in an occupancy of 61.7 percent next year and ADR will see an increase of 5.9 percent. The consultancy firm anticipates RevPAR up by 14.4 percent in 2022.

CBRE HOTELS RESEARCH has once again revised its forecast for the second half of 2022. The revision is mainly due to strong gains in the second quarter and expectations of positive growth next year. RevPAR for the second half of the year will rise to 14.7 percent year-over-year, up from the previous projection of 13.1 percent in May, according to CBRE. The reasons for the spike are a 3.5 percentage point increase in ADR and a 2.2 percentage point reduction in CBRE's demand forecast. Second quarter RevPAR reached $98.84, up 38 percent year over-year, and an all-time quarterly high at 106 percent of 2019's level. RevPAR growth was driven mainly by ADR, up 25.5 percent, followed by occupancy, up 9.9 percent.

AS THE HOLIDAY season dwindles into the past, so did U.S. hotels' performance, according to STR. Occupancy dropped, dragging ADR and RevPAR with it. Occupancy was 45.4 percent for the week ending Jan. 8, down from 54.3 percent the week before and down 14.9 percent from the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $119.92 for the week, down from $157.91 week over week and a 4.8 percent drop from 2019. RevPAR reached $54.47, a decline from $85.74 the prior week and down 19 percent from 2019. "Occupancy fell week over week because of a slowdown in leisure demand and a continued absence of business travel due to a Saturday holiday," STR said. "While ADR also dropped from an all-time high the previous week, the metric came in at roughly 95 percent of the 2019 comparable." Occupancy did not increase over 2019 levels for any of STR's top 25 markets, but Dallas came closest, falling shy by 6.6 percent with 55.1 percent.

U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

ADR GROWTH FOR U.S. extended-stay hotels reached a record high in February, according to hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. Owing to this, the segment saw record high demand and monthly RevPAR up by more than 40 percent during the month compared to a year ago. During the month, occupancy growth was also significant with extended-stay hotel's occupancy premium compared to the overall hotel industry staying well above its long-term average. The 3.1 percent increase in extended-stay room supply in February is the fifth consecutive month of 4 percent or lower supply growth, according to "U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: February 2022" report by Highland Group. It suggested that mid-price and upscale supply increases should be well below pre-pandemic levels during the near term, the report added.

U.S. hotel performance improved in the fourth week of April from the week before, according to STR. The top 25 markets saw improvement as well. Occupancy was 65.8 percent for the week ending April 23, up from 62 percent the week before and down 4.2 percent from 2019. ADR was $148.35 for the week, increased from $147.25 the week before and up 15.4 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $97.66 during the week, up from $91.25 the week before and rose 10.5 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Tampa saw the highest occupancy, up 3.4 percent to 78.1 percent and ADR, increased 38.5 percent to $203.40, over 2019. Minneapolis experienced the largest occupancy decrease, dipped 21.1 percent to 53.8 percent, from 2019.

AS A RESULT of a larger impact from the Omicron variant, U.S. hotel occupancy worsened in the second week of January in comparison with pre-pandemic levels, according to STR. However, occupancy was higher than the previous week on an absolute basis. Occupancy was 48.8 percent for the week ending Jan. 15, up from 45.4 percent the week before and down 16.3 percent from the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $122.12 for the week, up from $119.92 the week before, but down 1.6 percent from two years ago. RevPAR reached $59.57, up from $54.47 the prior week and down 17.6 percent from the same period two years ago. According to STR, ADR and RevPAR were up week over week and when indexed to 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE moved closer to pre-pandemic levels during the third week of November according to STR. It dipped, however, from the week before. Occupancy was 59.7 percent for the week ending Nov. 20, down from 61.6 percent for the week before and a slight decrease of 2.1 percent from the same period two years ago. ADR for the third week of the month was $126.66, down from $129.98 the week before and increased 1.7 percent when compared to two years ago. RevPAR decreased to $75.60 for the third week of the month from $80.02 the week before, and a slight drop of 0.4 percent for the same period in 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Phoenix saw the largest occupancy increase during the week under review, up 6.4 percent to 76.6 percent over 2019. Miami reported the largest ADR increase when compared to 2019, 25.5 percent to $207.72. Oahu Island, Hawaii, experienced the steepest occupancy decline from 2019, down 35.2 percent to 51.8 percent.