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A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.

CBRE HOTELS RESEARCH has once again revised its forecast for the second half of 2022. The revision is mainly due to strong gains in the second quarter and expectations of positive growth next year. RevPAR for the second half of the year will rise to 14.7 percent year-over-year, up from the previous projection of 13.1 percent in May, according to CBRE. The reasons for the spike are a 3.5 percentage point increase in ADR and a 2.2 percentage point reduction in CBRE's demand forecast. Second quarter RevPAR reached $98.84, up 38 percent year over-year, and an all-time quarterly high at 106 percent of 2019's level. RevPAR growth was driven mainly by ADR, up 25.5 percent, followed by occupancy, up 9.9 percent.

U.S. HOTEL DEMAND declined by 0.5 percent year over year in the third quarter of 2023, according to CBRE. Simultaneously, there was a matching 0.5 percent increase in supply. The combined effect of these factors led to a 1 percent decrease in occupancy. ADR increased by 0.6 percent during the quarter, marking the slowest improvement since the pandemic recovery began 10 quarters ago, the CBRE data revealed. RevPAR decreased by 0.3 percent, as a modest decline in occupancy was partially offset by the rise in ADR. Despite sustained consumer spending, hotel demand and pricing power in Q3 were hampered by competition from alternative lodging sources like short-term rentals and cruise lines, along with an uptick in outbound international travel. According to the report, hotel wage growth in September outpaced the national average of 4.3 percent, registering at 4.7 percent, but declined from 7 percent at year-end 2022. Average hourly hotel wages fell nearly $10 below the national average, suggesting ongoing pressure for wage increases.

U.S. HOTELS ARE likely to report improved RevPAR growth in the second half of the year, following a weak first quarter, according to CBRE. International tourism and other economic factors are expected to provide a boost to performance. A 2 percent increase in RevPAR growth is forecasted for 2024, down from the 3 percent estimated in February. RevPAR is now expected to grow by 3 percent for the remainder of the year, driven by international tourists, holiday travel, and limited supply growth. It is projecting GDP growth of 2.3 percent and average inflation of 3.2 percent in 2024. The performance of the lodging industry is closely tied to the strength of the economy, as there is typically a strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, CBRE said in a statement.

ACCORDING TO THE March 2022 edition of CBRE's Hotel Horizons national forecast report, the total revenue for a typical U.S. hotel is not expected to return to pre-COVID 2019 nominal dollars until 2023. Accordingly, hotel owners and operators continue to seek ways to control expenses, and that can include property taxes. One potential reduction opportunity is property taxes, according to an article from Robert Mandelbaum, director of research information services for CBRE Hotels Research, and Mark Whitney, managing director of CBRE's Property & Transaction Tax Services platform. Based on a sample of 3,400 hotels from CBRE's Trends in the Hotel Industry database, U.S. hotel property tax expenditures declined by 13 percent from 2020 to 2021. This decline put 2021 property taxes 9.9 percent below 2019 levels. Unfortunately, this compares unfavorably to the 41.3 percent decline in revenues and 57.4 percent falloff in profits during the same period. For this analysis, profits are defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA. Relationship to Profits Compared with other forms of real estate, hotel financial performance is relatively volatile. Because of the lack of long-term leases, hotel revenues and profits will react almost instantaneously to changes in the economy. This was evident during 2020 when we observed a sudden 64.3 percent drop in revenues along with a 109.4 percent decline in EBITDA in reaction to the pandemic.

IN 2020 AND 2021, U.S. hotel operators did a praiseworthy job controlling expenses to offset the significant declines in revenue. Based on data from CBRE's Trends in the Hotel Industry survey of annual operating statements from thousands of properties across the U.S., not only have we seen a reduction in the variable expenses associated with the drop in business volume (i.e., occupied rooms, restaurant covers), but also in cuts among what were previously thought to be fixed expenses. During this time period, insurance costs were out of operators' control. Per the 11th edition of the Uniform System of Accounts for the Lodging Industry (USALI), insurance expenditures are classified as a non-operating expense and reported on the summary operating statement below gross operating profits. The insurance expense line item includes property insurance for building, contents, and business income from all perils, as well as general liability and excess liability insurance. The insurance expense category does not include workers compensation insurance, which is allocated to the operated and undistributed departments. To analyze recent changes in hotel insurance costs, and the factors that influence those changes, we examined the operating statements of 3,156 U.S. hotels that reported insurance expenses for the Trends survey each year from 2015 through 2021 (estimated). The following paragraphs summarize the findings from our analysis.

ANNUAL CHANGES IN U.S. hotel utility costs and in the Consumer Price Index, or inflation, have historically proven to be strongly correlated. As of August 2022, CBRE is forecasting CPI growth to be 7.7 percent in 2022, followed by another 3.6 percent in 2023. Since inflation has averaged just 2.2 percent since 2000, these inflation projections have hoteliers concerned about operating costs. Given that rising energy costs are a significant driver of the current rise in CPI, hotel managers are especially worried about utility department expenses. Over the past 50 years, utility department expenses have averaged between 3 and 4 percent of total revenue, indicating that hotel managers have been successfully controlling energy costs in the face of fluctuating business volumes. This is particularly commendable given the highly fixed nature of utility expenses. To provide some context to the current challenging environment, we studied recent trends in hotel utility department expenses. The data come from a sample of more than 2,800 U.S. hotels that reported utility department expenses each year from 2015 through 2021 for CBRE's annual "Trends in the Hotel Industry" survey. In 2021 the properties in the sample averaged 209 rooms in size, with an annual occupancy rate of 54.2 percent and an average daily rate of $152.70.