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U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

THE REVPAR OF U.S. hotels is expected to surpass 2019 levels this year, according to the upgraded forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. Still, full recovery may be a couple of years away. ADR and RevPAR for U.S. hotels are forecasted at $14 and $6 higher in 2022 respectively, when compared to 2019, the report presented at the 44th annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference stated. However, occupancy in this year is projected to come in under the pre-pandemic comparable. Earlier, the forecast projected nominal RevPAR recovery in 2023. According to the forecast, the major factor in the revised timeline was a plus $11 adjustment in 2022 ADR. But, when adjusted for inflation, full recovery of ADR and RevPAR are not projected until 2024. The report added that central business districts and the top 25 markets are not expected to reach full RevPAR recovery until after 2024.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY hotels experienced their first quarterly decline in RevPAR since the first quarter of 2021, according to The Highland Group. In the first quarter, the segment saw a 1.6 percent drop in RevPAR, despite a 1.5 percent increase in revenues. Demand increased by 1.7 percent, contrasting with a 2.8 percent fall in total hotel demand when excluding upper upscale and luxury segments. STR/CoStar estimated that overall hotel RevPAR, excluding upper upscale and luxury segments, which have minimal extended-stay room supply, increased by 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. The Highland Group's 2024 First Quarter U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels report indicated that overall hotel RevPAR and room revenues declined by 1.1 percent and 0.9 percent year-to-date, respectively, excluding upper upscale and luxury segments.

DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

REVPAR FOR U.S extended-stay economy, mid-scale and upscale segments is recovering back to pre-pandemic levels, according to a report from consulting firm The Highland Group. Total extended-stay hotel occupancy is very close to the first quarter levels reported in 2016 and 2017 but below its peak years since 2015. "Overall, first quarter extended-stay hotel ADR was the highest ever reported in 2023 and all three segments have more than fully recovered their 2019 nominal ADR values," the report said. In its "2023 First Quarter U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Report," Highland said the economy and mid-price extended-stay hotels made considerable gains in RevPAR relative to corresponding classes of all hotels between 2019 and 2023. Due to high concentration of rooms in urban markets, upscale extended-stay hotels have seen RevPAR decline slightly relative to all upscale class hotels. However, the gap is expected to narrow as urban markets make a full recovery, the report noted. "Rising interest rates and construction costs, as well as tightening loan underwriting, means extended-stay supply growth should be relatively low nationally for two to three years. Assuming the overall hotel industry does not endure a correction, extended-stay hotels should set more new performance records during the near term at least," says Mark Skinner, partner at The Highland Group.

ADR is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2024, with occupancy and RevPAR remaining unchanged from the previous forecast, according to STR and Tourism Economics' initial U.S. hotel forecast for 2024 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit. Yet, 2025 projections for key performance metrics were revised downward due to stabilized long-term average trends: occupancy down 0.1 percentage points, ADR down 0.3 points and RevPAR down 0.5 ppts. "U.S. ADR and RevPAR reached record highs in 2023 with solid travel fundamentals and a big year for group business underpinning performance," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "We expect to see continued growth as fundamentals remain more favorable for the travel economy. The indicator that is especially important is the low unemployment rate among college-educated individuals, those most likely to travel for business and leisure." The STR and Tourism Economics forecast a rise in GOPPAR growth due to increased TRevPAR levels and stable labor costs. Among chain scales, luxury and upper upscale hotels are expected to see substantial cost increases, driven by growing group demand.

STR AND TOURISM ECONOMICS have increased year-over-year growth projections for ADR and RevPAR in the final revision of the U.S. hotel forecast for 2023. While some factors, such as higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, may impact the economy, their effect on the travel industry is not expected to be strong. In 2023, RevPAR saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, propelled by a 0.6ppt rise in ADR growth, according to STR and TE. Meanwhile, recent RevPAR trends affirm rate as the predominant performance driver. Occupancy was downgraded by 0.2ppts, STR and TE said in a statement. Growth projections for key performance metrics in 2024 remained flat from the previous forecast, reflecting the stabilization of long-term average trends.

THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

OCCUPANCY PROJECTIONS ARE dropping while ADR projections are rising in a new forecast for U.S. hotels by STR and Tourism Economics. RevPAR is still expected to recover fully on a nominal basis this year, according to the forecast released Thursday at STR's 14th Annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville. However, RevPAR is still expected to take until 2025 to recover when adjusted for inflation, according to the forecast. For 2022, RevPAR is now expected to average $93 compared to the projection of $92 released in June, when projected nominal RevPAR recovery was set in 2023. The occupancy projection for the year was lowered to 64.6 percent for the year and the ADR projection rose to $148. The updated forecast adds a little more than $2 to the ADR projection for both 2022 and 2023, and occupancy was lowered by less than a percentage point for each year.

HOTELS IN THE Americas performed above 2019 levels, although RevPAR is stabilizing amidst decreasing consumer travel spending, according to real estate firm JLL. This has affected resort markets heavily dependent on leisure travel. In contrast, urban travel demand is on the rise, driven by group, corporate, and inbound international travel. According to JLL's Global Real Estate Perspective for February 2024, global hotel RevPAR surpassed 2019 levels by 11.7 percent in the first 11 months of 2023. The global urban market strengthened with increased international travel and the return of business and group demand. London, New York, and Tokyo are expected to lead global RevPAR performance in 2024 as urban travel rebounds. Stabilization has weighed heaviest in resort markets, particularly in the Americas and EMEA, while Asia-Pacific continues to accelerate as intraregional travel grows following border reopenings, the report added. Foreign capital, absent since the onset of COVID, is expected to become more active over the next 12 months. Middle Eastern and Asian investors are likely to lead, with urban markets in Europe and select U.S. cities as primary recipients of capital.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE decreased slightly in the first week of February from the previous week, while year-over-year comparisons remained mixed, according to CoStar. Key metrics, including occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR, all declined in the first week of February compared to the previous week. Occupancy dipped slightly to 55.2 percent for the week ending Feb. 3, from the previous week's 56.2 percent, reflecting a 0.1 percent decrease year-over-year. ADR decreased to $147.99 from the prior week's $149.76, marking a 1.9 percent increase compared to the previous year. RevPAR declined to $81.69 from the prior week's $84.13, reflecting a 1.7 percent increase compared to the corresponding period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Seattle saw the largest year-over-year increases, with occupancy rising 19.3 percent to 60.1 percent and RevPAR increasing by 27.5 percent to $89.11.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE declined in the fourth week of April compared to the previous week and the corresponding period last year, as expected during Passover, according to CoStar. All key metrics, including occupancy, RevPAR and ADR, experienced a decrease compared to the previous week. Occupancy came in at 65.7 percent for the week ending April 27, down from the previous week's 66.8 percent, while marking a 1.2 percent year-over-year decrease. ADR decreased to $154.44 from $158.60, reflecting a 1.3 percent decline compared to last year. RevPAR stood at $101.42, down from $105.94 the prior week, indicating a 2.5 percent dip compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Seattle reported the sole double-digit increase in occupancy, rising by 15.6 percent to 74.6 percent. Detroit, host of the NFL Draft, saw the most significant surge in both ADR, rising by 21.8 percent to $147.83, and RevPAR, increasing by 25.6 percent to $94.74.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE saw an uptick in the third week of March compared to the previous week, although year-over-year figures continued to decline, according to CoStar. Key metrics such as occupancy, ADR and RevPAR continued their upward trajectory during this period compared to the preceding week. Occupancy increased to 66.5 percent for the week ending March 16, up from the previous week's 63.2 percent, reflecting a 1.4 percent year-over-year decline. ADR rose to $163.21 from $156.96 the previous week, marking a 2.1 percent decrease compared to last year. RevPAR reached $108.51, up from the previous week's $99.17, signifying a 3.5 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Seattle reported significant year-over-year increases in occupancy, rising by 12.7 percent to 73 percent, and in RevPAR, which increased by 21.7 percent to $120.29.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dropped in the first week of January from the prior week, although year-over-year comparisons showed improvement, according to CoStar. Key metrics, including occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR, all declined at the start of the New Year compared to the previous week. Occupancy was 46.8 percent for the week ending Jan. 6, down from the previous week's 50.1 percent and reflecting a 0.7 percent year-over-year decrease. ADR fell to $152.17, compared to the prior week's $163.58, showing a 7.2 percent increase from the previous year. RevPAR decreased to $71.28 from the prior week's $82.1, but rose 6.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, New Orleans saw the largest year-over-year increases in each of the three performance metrics. Its occupancy was up 36.5 percent to 61.2 percent, ADR was up 43.5 percent to $211.90 and RevPAR rose 95.9 percent to $129.62. The market's performance was boosted by the Sugar Bowl, FAN EXPO New Orleans and multiple Mardi Gras parades.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE rose in the second week of March compared to the previous week but declined year over year, according to CoStar. Key metrics, including occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR, all saw increases compared to the prior week. Occupancy climbed to 63.2 percent for the week ending March 9, up from the prior week's 62.5 percent, reflecting a 2.2 percent year-over-year decline. ADR rose to $156.96 from $155.29 the previous week, marking a 0.6 percent decrease compared to last year. RevPAR reached $99.17, up from the previous week's $97.12, signifying a 2.8 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Minneapolis saw significant year-over-year growth across all three key performance metrics: occupancy surged by 25.1 percent to 63.7 percent, ADR rose by 15.9 percent to $143.12, and RevPAR increased by 45.1 percent to $91.11.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE showed improvement in the second week of January compared to the previous week, with mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar. Key metrics, including occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR, saw moderate increases during the week compared to the New Year's commencement. The performance was influenced by the Consumer Electronics Show. Occupancy came in at 53.3 percent for the week ending Jan. 13, up from the previous week's 46.8 percent and reflecting a 2.8 percent year-over-year decrease. ADR rose to $153.84, compared to the prior week's $152.17, showing a 6.3 percent increase from the previous year. RevPAR increased to $81.96 from the prior week's $71.28, showing a 3.3 percent rise from the corresponding period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Las Vegas demonstrated the largest year-over-year increases in each of the three performance metrics. Occupancy increased by 29 percent to reach 79.8 percent, ADR rose by 77.3 percent to $283.74, and RevPAR increased by 128.8 percent to $226.34.

A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE exhibited mostly positive year-over-year trends in the first week of March, compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. Despite a slight increase in occupancy, RevPAR declined, while RevPAR remained static. Occupancy rose to 62.5 percent for the week ending March 2, up from the previous week's 62 percent, marking a 0.3 percent year-over-year decline. ADR decreased to $155.29 from $156.62 the prior week, reflecting a 2.7 percent increase compared to the previous year. RevPAR remained unchanged at $97.12 from the prior week's $97.12, indicating a 2.4 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Seattle reported the largest year-over-year occupancy increase, rising 12.1 percent to reach 66.5 percent.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE exhibited mixed results in the third week of April compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. Key metrics such as occupancy and ADR saw slight increases, while RevPAR declined from the preceding week. Occupancy rose to 66.8 percent for the week ending April 20, up from the previous week's 65.8 percent, but marked a 0.3 percent year-over-year decrease. ADR dropped to $158.60 from $160.20, a 1.5 percent increase compared to last year. RevPAR climbed to $105.94 from $105.48 the prior week, showing a 1.2 percent rise compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Philadelphia saw the most significant year-over-year occupancy surge, soaring by 14.3 percent to reach 72.1 percent, while RevPAR also notably increased by 23.2 percent to $114.11.