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DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.

U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

CBRE HOTELS RESEARCH has once again revised its forecast for the second half of 2022. The revision is mainly due to strong gains in the second quarter and expectations of positive growth next year. RevPAR for the second half of the year will rise to 14.7 percent year-over-year, up from the previous projection of 13.1 percent in May, according to CBRE. The reasons for the spike are a 3.5 percentage point increase in ADR and a 2.2 percentage point reduction in CBRE's demand forecast. Second quarter RevPAR reached $98.84, up 38 percent year over-year, and an all-time quarterly high at 106 percent of 2019's level. RevPAR growth was driven mainly by ADR, up 25.5 percent, followed by occupancy, up 9.9 percent.

A STRONG PERFORMANCE by U.S. hotels during the first quarter of 2022, along with other factors, are leading CBRE Hotels Research to raise its forecast for the rest of the year. The research firm now expects a full recovery in ADR in 2022 and in demand and RevPAR in 2023. First quarter RevPAR reached $72.20, up 61 percent from year earlier, despite a surge from the COVID-19 omicron variant, according to CBRE. RevPAR growth was driven by a 39 percent increase in ADR and a 16 percent increase in occupancy. ADR was 5 percent ahead of 2019's levels, marking the third consecutive quarter in which levels exceed the same period in 2019. These rising rates demonstrate that travelers aren't price-sensitive in many peak-demand markets.

ACCORDING TO THE March 2022 edition of CBRE's Hotel Horizons national forecast report, the total revenue for a typical U.S. hotel is not expected to return to pre-COVID 2019 nominal dollars until 2023. Accordingly, hotel owners and operators continue to seek ways to control expenses, and that can include property taxes. One potential reduction opportunity is property taxes, according to an article from Robert Mandelbaum, director of research information services for CBRE Hotels Research, and Mark Whitney, managing director of CBRE's Property & Transaction Tax Services platform. Based on a sample of 3,400 hotels from CBRE's Trends in the Hotel Industry database, U.S. hotel property tax expenditures declined by 13 percent from 2020 to 2021. This decline put 2021 property taxes 9.9 percent below 2019 levels. Unfortunately, this compares unfavorably to the 41.3 percent decline in revenues and 57.4 percent falloff in profits during the same period. For this analysis, profits are defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA. Relationship to Profits Compared with other forms of real estate, hotel financial performance is relatively volatile. Because of the lack of long-term leases, hotel revenues and profits will react almost instantaneously to changes in the economy. This was evident during 2020 when we observed a sudden 64.3 percent drop in revenues along with a 109.4 percent decline in EBITDA in reaction to the pandemic.

IN 2020 AND 2021, U.S. hotel operators did a praiseworthy job controlling expenses to offset the significant declines in revenue. Based on data from CBRE's Trends in the Hotel Industry survey of annual operating statements from thousands of properties across the U.S., not only have we seen a reduction in the variable expenses associated with the drop in business volume (i.e., occupied rooms, restaurant covers), but also in cuts among what were previously thought to be fixed expenses. During this time period, insurance costs were out of operators' control. Per the 11th edition of the Uniform System of Accounts for the Lodging Industry (USALI), insurance expenditures are classified as a non-operating expense and reported on the summary operating statement below gross operating profits. The insurance expense line item includes property insurance for building, contents, and business income from all perils, as well as general liability and excess liability insurance. The insurance expense category does not include workers compensation insurance, which is allocated to the operated and undistributed departments. To analyze recent changes in hotel insurance costs, and the factors that influence those changes, we examined the operating statements of 3,156 U.S. hotels that reported insurance expenses for the Trends survey each year from 2015 through 2021 (estimated). The following paragraphs summarize the findings from our analysis.